Bo Nichols

Kashkari Named a Series | Exxon/Chevron Refining Record | Yen Intervention

Jul 31, 2026

•

6 min read

Kashkari Named a Series | Exxon/Chevron Refining Record | Yen Intervention

Three Fed dissenters explained their votes Friday. Kashkari named a series of hikes, not one. Exxon and Chevron posted record refining profits. Japan and South Korea jointly intervened to prop up their currencies.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Amazon Just Hiked 2026 Capex to $220 Billion. AWS Grew 37%. Anthropic Is the Backlog.

Jul 31, 2026

•

5 min read

Amazon Just Hiked 2026 Capex to $220 Billion. AWS Grew 37%. Anthropic Is the Backlog.

Amazon raised its 2026 capex forecast $20 billion in a single quarter and AWS grew at its fastest pace since 2021. Apple missed on guidance and warned of chip supply constraints. China's factory PMI contracted for the first time since February.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Situational Awareness Blew Up | GDP Was Half AI | PCE Fell

Jul 30, 2026

•

5 min read

Situational Awareness Blew Up | GDP Was Half AI | PCE Fell

The $45 billion fund that named the AI thesis force-sold its entire public book. Q2 GDP grew 1.5% and more than half was AI capex. PCE fell for the first time since the pandemic. Meta's Reality Labs lost $4.6 billion.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Warsh Held Rates and the Bond Market Called His Bluff. The 30-Year Hit a 19-Year High.

Jul 30, 2026

•

5 min read

Warsh Held Rates and the Bond Market Called His Bluff. The 30-Year Hit a 19-Year High.

The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high hours after the Fed's fifth straight hold. Microsoft rallied almost 9% after hours while Meta fell as much as 10%. Retail investors dumped single stocks at the fastest pace since the COVID crash.

Dio Pouerie, +1

AI Debt Prices the Risk | Fed Holds, Three Dissent | P&G's Oil Bill

Jul 29, 2026

•

5 min read

AI Debt Prices the Risk | Fed Holds, Three Dissent | P&G's Oil Bill

The CDS market is pricing the AI buildout in real time. CoreWeave implies 50% default odds. The Fed held but three officials voted to hike. P&G said $90 oil is a $1 billion headwind.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Iran Just Broke the Pause. Ballistic Missiles at US Forces. Oil Ripped Back Above $86.

Jul 29, 2026

•

6 min read

Iran Just Broke the Pause. Ballistic Missiles at US Forces. Oil Ripped Back Above $86.

Iran broke the pause with ballistic missiles and oil ripped back above $86. The BIS says the AI buildout is running about 1.5 times the efficient level. The FCC banned new Chinese humanoid robots and power inverters.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Meta-BlackRock Name the AI Build | Corning's Worst Day | China's Chip Tools

Jul 28, 2026

•

5 min read

Meta-BlackRock Name the AI Build | Corning's Worst Day | China's Chip Tools

Meta and BlackRock formally announced their $14 billion El Paso data center joint venture. Corning had its worst day since 2002. China started mass producing domestic chipmaking tools.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Citadel Securities Just Called a Fed Hike Tomorrow. The Market Is Priced for 40%.

Jul 28, 2026

•

5 min read

Citadel Securities Just Called a Fed Hike Tomorrow. The Market Is Priced for 40%.

Citadel Securities says Warsh will surprise with a hike Wednesday. The Kospi hit a circuit breaker and closed down almost 11% as the Nvidia backstop framework reached Asia. BlackRock's Meta data center bond cleared at a junk yield.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Alphabet's Earnings Were Mostly Paper | Nvidia Backs OpenAI | AI Wipeout Myth

Jul 27, 2026

•

5 min read

Alphabet's Earnings Were Mostly Paper | Nvidia Backs OpenAI | AI Wipeout Myth

Alphabet drove 92% of S&P 500 earnings growth on unrealized marks. Nvidia is in talks to backstop a $250 billion OpenAI data center. China threatened countermeasures. Big companies are hiring again.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Stress-Test Any Position That Needs a September Cut

Jul 27, 2026

•

5 min read

Stress-Test Any Position That Needs a September Cut

The 10-year Treasury sits at its highest since early 2025 as hike odds jump to the mid-30s, the White House puts its name on the Moonshot distillation case, and South Korea signs $950 billion in AI supply deals.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Every Fed Signal and Every Big Tech Name Reports at Once

Jul 26, 2026

•

5 min read

The Week Every Fed Signal and Every Big Tech Name Reports at Once

The Fed decides Tuesday and Wednesday with oil near $100 and a seven way split still unresolved. Core PCE prints Thursday. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple report days after Alphabet split the AI trade in two.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Oil Hit $100 and AI Split Into Two Trades

Jul 25, 2026

•

6 min read

The Week Oil Hit $100 and AI Split Into Two Trades

Both Hormuz and the Saudi bypass route came under threat as Brent topped $100. The BEA will quietly cut the Fed's favorite inflation number in September. Alphabet's $205 billion capex plan crushed the platforms and lifted the chipmakers. And private credit now sits under nearly every AI deal.

Dio Pouerie, +1

AmEx vs Albertsons | Blackstone Record AUM | Tariff Gap Opens

Jul 24, 2026

•

5 min read

AmEx vs Albertsons | Blackstone Record AUM | Tariff Gap Opens

American Express beat and raised guidance while Albertsons crashed 22%. The consumer is running in two lanes. Blackstone hit $1.35 trillion in assets. Section 122 expired overnight and the tariff gap is now real.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The AI Capex Bill Sits on Private Credit's Books

Jul 24, 2026

•

4 min read

The AI Capex Bill Sits on Private Credit's Books

Apollo and Blackstone closed the largest chip-financed private credit deal on record. Meta threatened neocloud contracts three weeks ago and Alphabet just anchored them. Private capital signed the $5.3 billion AI power bill.

Dio Pouerie, +1

AI Trade Splits in Two | Oil Hits $100 | Alphabet Falls Hard

Jul 23, 2026

•

4 min read

AI Trade Splits in Two | Oil Hits $100 | Alphabet Falls Hard

The market split the AI trade into two lanes today. Alphabet fell hard on $205 billion in capex. Super Micro surged on the same number. WTI crossed $92 as Houthis hit two Saudi tankers.

Dio Pouerie, +1

IBM's Own Customers Are Raiding Their Budgets to Pay for AI. The Buildout Just Became a Tax on Everything Else.

Jul 23, 2026

•

5 min read

IBM's Own Customers Are Raiding Their Budgets to Pay for AI. The Buildout Just Became a Tax on Everything Else.

IBM's clients deferred deals to fund AI infrastructure at 30% price hikes. A carmaker's free cash flow went negative to build robots. An AI-software vendor's orders crossed a billion. A chipmaker started raising prices into doubling data center demand.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Both Oil Chokepoints Threatened | SMCI Margins Double | Alphabet Tonight

Jul 22, 2026

•

5 min read

Both Oil Chokepoints Threatened | SMCI Margins Double | Alphabet Tonight

The Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia just threatened the only working Hormuz bypass. WTI crossed $86 with July hike odds rising. Super Micro doubled its margin guidance with $60 billion in new orders.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Fed Rang the AI Cybersecurity Alarm in April. Three Months Later It Still Doesn't Have the Model.

Jul 22, 2026

•

4 min read

The Fed Rang the AI Cybersecurity Alarm in April. Three Months Later It Still Doesn't Have the Model.

The Fed convened bank CEOs in April to warn about Anthropic's Mythos model and still cannot get access, Houthis have blockaded every Saudi port, and zombie private-equity funds just hit a record $348.5 billion.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Bessent Threatens AI Sanctions | SpaceX August 4 | Apple Goes Subscription

Jul 21, 2026

•

6 min read

Bessent Threatens AI Sanctions | SpaceX August 4 | Apple Goes Subscription

Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened sanctions on Chinese AI labs for distilling American models. SpaceX set August 4 earnings triggering a 911.5 million share lockup. Apple launches a Klarna-backed device leasing program July 28.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Oracle Credit Risk Just Hit an 18-Year High. The Credit Market Is Pricing the AI Supply Contract Fragility Yesterday's PMD Named.

Jul 21, 2026

•

5 min read

Oracle Credit Risk Just Hit an 18-Year High. The Credit Market Is Pricing the AI Supply Contract Fragility Yesterday's PMD Named.

Oracle (ORCL) CDS hit 2.03 percentage points Monday, the highest on record since 2008. Jamie Dimon said he would not buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices. OpenAI and Anthropic executives sound the alarm on Chinese models against a split Trump administration. And margin debt just hit a record $1.5 trillion.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Hedge Fund Record Tech Sell | Alphabet Wednesday | BlackRock's $12B Bond

Jul 20, 2026

•

5 min read

Hedge Fund Record Tech Sell | Alphabet Wednesday | BlackRock's $12B Bond

Goldman says hedge funds pulled back from US tech at the biggest pace since the data series began. Alphabet reports Wednesday. BlackRock is selling more than $12 billion of bonds to fund one Texas data center.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Fed Just Got Its Cover to Hold. The BEA Will Cut Core PCE by 0.2 Points on September 30.

Jul 20, 2026

•

4 min read

The Fed Just Got Its Cover to Hold. The BEA Will Cut Core PCE by 0.2 Points on September 30.

The BEA will revamp the Fed's preferred inflation gauge inside the July-to-September vote window, a ninth night of US-Iran strikes pushed Brent above $90 before it reversed on talks, and Big Tech reports this week against $1 trillion in erased SpaceX market cap.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Earnings Meet the Fed's Loudest Split Yet

Jul 19, 2026

•

5 min read

The Week Earnings Meet the Fed's Loudest Split Yet

Alphabet and Tesla report the same week Fed voices split seven ways. Bank and rail earnings test last week's trends. Housing data and a flash PMI round out the picture before July 28.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Oil, the Fed, and AI Credit All Broke Open

Jul 18, 2026

•

6 min read

The Week Oil, the Fed, and AI Credit All Broke Open

Trump named the US Guardian of Hormuz then walked back his own toll. The Fed split into seven public voices before July 28. Goldman named an AI super cycle. Margin debt hit year 2000 levels. Banks posted record profits. Netflix and Alphabet cracked.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Chip Bear Market | Apple Reclaims Crown | Fed Split Grows

Jul 17, 2026

•

6 min read

Chip Bear Market | Apple Reclaims Crown | Fed Split Grows

The chip index entered a bear market after China's Moonshot AI released a model that outperforms some US systems. Apple reclaimed the title of most valuable US company from Nvidia. The Fed hike bloc extended to eight positions.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Bo Nichols

Kashkari Named a Series | Exxon/Chevron Refining Record | Yen Intervention

Amazon Just Hiked 2026 Capex to $220 Billion. AWS Grew 37%. Anthropic Is the Backlog.

Situational Awareness Blew Up | GDP Was Half AI | PCE Fell

Warsh Held Rates and the Bond Market Called His Bluff. The 30-Year Hit a 19-Year High.

AI Debt Prices the Risk | Fed Holds, Three Dissent | P&G's Oil Bill

Iran Just Broke the Pause. Ballistic Missiles at US Forces. Oil Ripped Back Above $86.

Meta-BlackRock Name the AI Build | Corning's Worst Day | China's Chip Tools

Citadel Securities Just Called a Fed Hike Tomorrow. The Market Is Priced for 40%.

Alphabet's Earnings Were Mostly Paper | Nvidia Backs OpenAI | AI Wipeout Myth

Stress-Test Any Position That Needs a September Cut

The Week Every Fed Signal and Every Big Tech Name Reports at Once

The Week Oil Hit $100 and AI Split Into Two Trades

AmEx vs Albertsons | Blackstone Record AUM | Tariff Gap Opens

The AI Capex Bill Sits on Private Credit's Books

AI Trade Splits in Two | Oil Hits $100 | Alphabet Falls Hard

IBM's Own Customers Are Raiding Their Budgets to Pay for AI. The Buildout Just Became a Tax on Everything Else.

Both Oil Chokepoints Threatened | SMCI Margins Double | Alphabet Tonight

The Fed Rang the AI Cybersecurity Alarm in April. Three Months Later It Still Doesn't Have the Model.

Bessent Threatens AI Sanctions | SpaceX August 4 | Apple Goes Subscription

Oracle Credit Risk Just Hit an 18-Year High. The Credit Market Is Pricing the AI Supply Contract Fragility Yesterday's PMD Named.

Hedge Fund Record Tech Sell | Alphabet Wednesday | BlackRock's $12B Bond

The Fed Just Got Its Cover to Hold. The BEA Will Cut Core PCE by 0.2 Points on September 30.

The Week Earnings Meet the Fed's Loudest Split Yet

The Week Oil, the Fed, and AI Credit All Broke Open

Chip Bear Market | Apple Reclaims Crown | Fed Split Grows

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | SMS Terms

| |