Bo Nichols

Jobs Miss | Copper Surges | Boeing Cracks

Aug 7, 2026

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5 min read

Jobs Miss | Copper Surges | Boeing Cracks

July payrolls missed by more than 100,000. Traders cut September hike bets. Copper is squeezing toward record highs. A food safety outbreak is hurting restaurants.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Musalem Said the Fed Should Have Hiked in July. That Makes Seven Fed Officials Publicly Aligned With the Hike Case.

Aug 7, 2026

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5 min read

Musalem Said the Fed Should Have Hiked in July. That Makes Seven Fed Officials Publicly Aligned With the Hike Case.

St. Louis Fed President said Thursday he preferred a July hike. Google exposed 200-plus companies targeted in coordinated attacks. US refiners are at full capacity. Jane Street is refinancing $11 billion of public debt into private credit.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Terafab $119 Billion | Millennium Picks Anthropic | AI Kill Switch Bill

Aug 6, 2026

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5 min read

Terafab $119 Billion | Millennium Picks Anthropic | AI Kill Switch Bill

SpaceX and Tesla announced a $16.8 billion Terafab chip complex in Texas with a $119 billion multi-phase filing. Millennium partnered with Anthropic to build an AI risk analyst. Rep. Ted Lieu said the AI Kill Switch Act needs to pass this year.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Trump Has Been Calling Warsh Repeatedly. Cook Is "Prepared to Act" on a Hike. Kashkari Said Yesterday Is the Time to Move.

Aug 6, 2026

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5 min read

Trump Has Been Calling Warsh Repeatedly. Cook Is "Prepared to Act" on a Hike. Kashkari Said Yesterday Is the Time to Move.

WSJ exclusive reports Trump has been calling Warsh in bursts since May. Cook signaled openness to a hike Wednesday. Kashkari said the same on CNBC. Daly said the Fed must be "prepared to take action." Six Fed officials now publicly aligned with the hike case ahead of Jackson Hole.

Dio Pouerie, +1

SpaceX $101B Lockup Tomorrow | Fed Vishing Attack | Private Credit Survey

Aug 5, 2026

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5 min read

SpaceX $101B Lockup Tomorrow | Fed Vishing Attack | Private Credit Survey

SpaceX's first lockup stage frees $101 billion of stock tomorrow. The stock fell 13% today on massive AI capex disclosure. Point72, Two Sigma, and Citadel were all hit in a coordinated cyber attack. Two regional Fed banks are launching the first survey of the $1.3 trillion private credit market.

Dio Pouerie, +1

SpaceX Spent $15.8 Billion on AI in a Single Quarter. Musk Committed Exclusively to Nvidia. AMD Fell 8%.

Aug 5, 2026

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5 min read

SpaceX Spent $15.8 Billion on AI in a Single Quarter. Musk Committed Exclusively to Nvidia. AMD Fell 8%.

SpaceX Q2 capex hit $18.4 billion. The bulk went to AI. Musk said SpaceX will now build exclusively on Nvidia. AMD dropped 8% after hours. Michael Burry warned of a "1987-type fall." Jeff Schmid asked whether AI is becoming "too big to fail."

Dio Pouerie, +1

Anthropic's $46B Debt Stack | SpaceX Reports Tonight | Hormuz Deal Imminent

Aug 4, 2026

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5 min read

Anthropic's $46B Debt Stack | SpaceX Reports Tonight | Hormuz Deal Imminent

Anthropic signed a $10 billion compute deal with a months-old startup. Blackstone is pitching another $36 billion debt package on top. SpaceX reports its first earnings tonight. Bessent said a Hormuz deal could land today or tomorrow.

Dio Pouerie, +1

One-Third of US Economic Growth Sits on the AI Buildout. Data-Center Construction Was Up. Everything Else Was Down.

Aug 4, 2026

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5 min read

One-Third of US Economic Growth Sits on the AI Buildout. Data-Center Construction Was Up. Everything Else Was Down.

The AI investment and stock boom accounts for roughly one-third of nationwide economic growth per Oxford Economics. June data-center construction was up $21.5 billion year-over-year. All other private construction fell $101.6 billion. Palantir US commercial revenue grew 149%. Barkin called it a close call whether rates are high enough.

Dio Pouerie, +1

SpaceX Reports Tomorrow | Manufacturing at 4-Year High | Williams Holds the Line

Aug 3, 2026

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5 min read

SpaceX Reports Tomorrow | Manufacturing at 4-Year High | Williams Holds the Line

SpaceX reports its first earnings tomorrow with the stock down 50% from its post-IPO high. Alphabet's paper mark sits on the same ticker. US manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Aug 3, 2026

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5 min read

One of These Two Marks Already Trades

Alphabet's SpaceX mark has lost a third of its value since the day it was struck, OPEC+ added a sixth straight month of barrels, and Tokyo and Washington bought yen together on Friday.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week the Bond Market and SpaceX Test Whether Last Week Was a Blip

Aug 2, 2026

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6 min read

The Week the Bond Market and SpaceX Test Whether Last Week Was a Blip

The 30 year Treasury sits at a 19 year high heading into a week with no Fed meeting to explain it. SpaceX reports its first results as a public company Tuesday, triggering a lockup on up to 911 million shares. Anthropic's paper marks face their first real tests.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Two Hyperscalers Booked Paper Profits and the Bond Market Stopped Believing the Fed

Aug 1, 2026

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7 min read

The Week Two Hyperscalers Booked Paper Profits and the Bond Market Stopped Believing the Fed

The Fed held rates but three officials voted to hike. The 30 year Treasury jumped to a 19 year high anyway. Alphabet and Amazon built much of their earnings beat on unrealized gains from private AI stakes. Credit markets started pricing real default risk across the AI buildout.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Kashkari Named a Series | Exxon/Chevron Refining Record | Yen Intervention

Jul 31, 2026

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6 min read

Kashkari Named a Series | Exxon/Chevron Refining Record | Yen Intervention

Three Fed dissenters explained their votes Friday. Kashkari named a series of hikes, not one. Exxon and Chevron posted record refining profits. Japan and South Korea jointly intervened to prop up their currencies.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Amazon Just Hiked 2026 Capex to $220 Billion. AWS Grew 37%. Anthropic Is the Backlog.

Jul 31, 2026

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5 min read

Amazon Just Hiked 2026 Capex to $220 Billion. AWS Grew 37%. Anthropic Is the Backlog.

Amazon raised its 2026 capex forecast $20 billion in a single quarter and AWS grew at its fastest pace since 2021. Apple missed on guidance and warned of chip supply constraints. China's factory PMI contracted for the first time since February.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Situational Awareness Blew Up | GDP Was Half AI | PCE Fell

Jul 30, 2026

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5 min read

Situational Awareness Blew Up | GDP Was Half AI | PCE Fell

The $45 billion fund that named the AI thesis force-sold its entire public book. Q2 GDP grew 1.5% and more than half was AI capex. PCE fell for the first time since the pandemic. Meta's Reality Labs lost $4.6 billion.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Warsh Held Rates and the Bond Market Called His Bluff. The 30-Year Hit a 19-Year High.

Jul 30, 2026

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5 min read

Warsh Held Rates and the Bond Market Called His Bluff. The 30-Year Hit a 19-Year High.

The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high hours after the Fed's fifth straight hold. Microsoft rallied almost 9% after hours while Meta fell as much as 10%. Retail investors dumped single stocks at the fastest pace since the COVID crash.

Dio Pouerie, +1

AI Debt Prices the Risk | Fed Holds, Three Dissent | P&G's Oil Bill

Jul 29, 2026

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5 min read

AI Debt Prices the Risk | Fed Holds, Three Dissent | P&G's Oil Bill

The CDS market is pricing the AI buildout in real time. CoreWeave implies 50% default odds. The Fed held but three officials voted to hike. P&G said $90 oil is a $1 billion headwind.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Iran Just Broke the Pause. Ballistic Missiles at US Forces. Oil Ripped Back Above $86.

Jul 29, 2026

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6 min read

Iran Just Broke the Pause. Ballistic Missiles at US Forces. Oil Ripped Back Above $86.

Iran broke the pause with ballistic missiles and oil ripped back above $86. The BIS says the AI buildout is running about 1.5 times the efficient level. The FCC banned new Chinese humanoid robots and power inverters.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Meta-BlackRock Name the AI Build | Corning's Worst Day | China's Chip Tools

Jul 28, 2026

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5 min read

Meta-BlackRock Name the AI Build | Corning's Worst Day | China's Chip Tools

Meta and BlackRock formally announced their $14 billion El Paso data center joint venture. Corning had its worst day since 2002. China started mass producing domestic chipmaking tools.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Citadel Securities Just Called a Fed Hike Tomorrow. The Market Is Priced for 40%.

Jul 28, 2026

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5 min read

Citadel Securities Just Called a Fed Hike Tomorrow. The Market Is Priced for 40%.

Citadel Securities says Warsh will surprise with a hike Wednesday. The Kospi hit a circuit breaker and closed down almost 11% as the Nvidia backstop framework reached Asia. BlackRock's Meta data center bond cleared at a junk yield.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Alphabet's Earnings Were Mostly Paper | Nvidia Backs OpenAI | AI Wipeout Myth

Jul 27, 2026

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5 min read

Alphabet's Earnings Were Mostly Paper | Nvidia Backs OpenAI | AI Wipeout Myth

Alphabet drove 92% of S&P 500 earnings growth on unrealized marks. Nvidia is in talks to backstop a $250 billion OpenAI data center. China threatened countermeasures. Big companies are hiring again.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Stress-Test Any Position That Needs a September Cut

Jul 27, 2026

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5 min read

Stress-Test Any Position That Needs a September Cut

The 10-year Treasury sits at its highest since early 2025 as hike odds jump to the mid-30s, the White House puts its name on the Moonshot distillation case, and South Korea signs $950 billion in AI supply deals.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Every Fed Signal and Every Big Tech Name Reports at Once

Jul 26, 2026

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5 min read

The Week Every Fed Signal and Every Big Tech Name Reports at Once

The Fed decides Tuesday and Wednesday with oil near $100 and a seven way split still unresolved. Core PCE prints Thursday. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple report days after Alphabet split the AI trade in two.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Oil Hit $100 and AI Split Into Two Trades

Jul 25, 2026

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6 min read

The Week Oil Hit $100 and AI Split Into Two Trades

Both Hormuz and the Saudi bypass route came under threat as Brent topped $100. The BEA will quietly cut the Fed's favorite inflation number in September. Alphabet's $205 billion capex plan crushed the platforms and lifted the chipmakers. And private credit now sits under nearly every AI deal.

Dio Pouerie, +1

AmEx vs Albertsons | Blackstone Record AUM | Tariff Gap Opens

Jul 24, 2026

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5 min read

AmEx vs Albertsons | Blackstone Record AUM | Tariff Gap Opens

American Express beat and raised guidance while Albertsons crashed 22%. The consumer is running in two lanes. Blackstone hit $1.35 trillion in assets. Section 122 expired overnight and the tariff gap is now real.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Bo Nichols

Jobs Miss | Copper Surges | Boeing Cracks

Musalem Said the Fed Should Have Hiked in July. That Makes Seven Fed Officials Publicly Aligned With the Hike Case.

Terafab $119 Billion | Millennium Picks Anthropic | AI Kill Switch Bill

Trump Has Been Calling Warsh Repeatedly. Cook Is "Prepared to Act" on a Hike. Kashkari Said Yesterday Is the Time to Move.

SpaceX $101B Lockup Tomorrow | Fed Vishing Attack | Private Credit Survey

SpaceX Spent $15.8 Billion on AI in a Single Quarter. Musk Committed Exclusively to Nvidia. AMD Fell 8%.

Anthropic's $46B Debt Stack | SpaceX Reports Tonight | Hormuz Deal Imminent

One-Third of US Economic Growth Sits on the AI Buildout. Data-Center Construction Was Up. Everything Else Was Down.

SpaceX Reports Tomorrow | Manufacturing at 4-Year High | Williams Holds the Line

One of These Two Marks Already Trades

The Week the Bond Market and SpaceX Test Whether Last Week Was a Blip

The Week Two Hyperscalers Booked Paper Profits and the Bond Market Stopped Believing the Fed

Kashkari Named a Series | Exxon/Chevron Refining Record | Yen Intervention

Amazon Just Hiked 2026 Capex to $220 Billion. AWS Grew 37%. Anthropic Is the Backlog.

Situational Awareness Blew Up | GDP Was Half AI | PCE Fell

Warsh Held Rates and the Bond Market Called His Bluff. The 30-Year Hit a 19-Year High.

AI Debt Prices the Risk | Fed Holds, Three Dissent | P&G's Oil Bill

Iran Just Broke the Pause. Ballistic Missiles at US Forces. Oil Ripped Back Above $86.

Meta-BlackRock Name the AI Build | Corning's Worst Day | China's Chip Tools

Citadel Securities Just Called a Fed Hike Tomorrow. The Market Is Priced for 40%.

Alphabet's Earnings Were Mostly Paper | Nvidia Backs OpenAI | AI Wipeout Myth

Stress-Test Any Position That Needs a September Cut

The Week Every Fed Signal and Every Big Tech Name Reports at Once

The Week Oil Hit $100 and AI Split Into Two Trades

AmEx vs Albertsons | Blackstone Record AUM | Tariff Gap Opens

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