Bo Nichols

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Housing Stalls | Salesforce Model the Labs Fear | Washington Said No to AI Regulation

Sep 15, 2026

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5 min read

Housing Stalls | Salesforce Model the Labs Fear | Washington Said No to AI Regulation

The one-month correlation between WTI and the 10-year hit 0.96. Mortgages crossed 7% into a housing market losing its only improvement. Salesforce built the reasoning model it used to rent.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The New Buyer of US Debt Is a Hedge Fund | Oil Executives Say the Crisis Is Here | Fortress Warns on AI Credit

Sep 15, 2026

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6 min read

The New Buyer of US Debt Is a Hedge Fund | Oil Executives Say the Crisis Is Here | Fortress Warns on AI Credit

Pensions and foreign central banks pulled back from Treasuries, and hedge funds doubled their holdings to a record 7% of the market. The New York Fed is asking if that made the market fragile. It's why the 10-year hit 5% and why Bessent can't hold it, the day before the Fed decides.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Rate Milestone | AI Safety Repricing | Airbnb Fills Gaps

Sep 14, 2026

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6 min read

Rate Milestone | AI Safety Repricing | Airbnb Fills Gaps

Bond yields hit a nearly two-decade threshold before the Fed even voted. Chips sold off on AI safety warnings. The Saudi pipeline is down and oil is above $100.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Hot CPI Corners Warsh Ahead of the Fed | Saudi Pipeline Outage Threatens 4% of Oil Supply | AI Leaders Call for a Slowdown as OpenAI Delays Its IPO

Sep 14, 2026

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5 min read

Hot CPI Corners Warsh Ahead of the Fed | Saudi Pipeline Outage Threatens 4% of Oil Supply | AI Leaders Call for a Slowdown as OpenAI Delays Its IPO

Friday's hot CPI pushed hike odds above 85%, putting Kevin Warsh on a collision course with a president who wants the lowest rates in the world. A Saudi pipeline outage threatens 4% of global oil supply, and diesel has topped $6. AI's own leaders agreed development needs to slow, even as Nvidia talks to anchor Anthropic's IPO.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Sep 13, 2026

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5 min read

The Week the Fed Puts a Number on 2027

Friday settled the month. Core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% call, and both long yields touched 52-week highs before easing back.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Capital Split Between the Finished and the Unfinished

Sep 12, 2026

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6 min read

The Week Capital Split Between the Finished and the Unfinished

Core inflation ran a tenth hot and mortgage rates crossed 7%. Two sponsors exited a castings maker at 18 times. Veritas outbid CVC for Bodycote at a 37.5% premium. Oracle’s backlog grew $209 billion while its free cash flow went to negative $5 billion.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Print Landed. Now It's About What Comes After.

Sep 11, 2026

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6 min read

The Print Landed. Now It's About What Comes After.

Core CPI at 0.3% pushed hike odds to 89%. Diesel crossed $6 for the first time. Chevron named the physical oil floor. China's four domestic AI chip companies are all now publicly traded.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The 10-Year Is at the Door of 5% | CPI Lands This Morning | Oracle Doubled Its Cloud and Guided $90 Billion | Trump Promised a Trillion-Dollar Dividend

Sep 11, 2026

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7 min read

The 10-Year Is at the Door of 5% | CPI Lands This Morning | Oracle Doubled Its Cloud and Guided $90 Billion | Trump Promised a Trillion-Dollar Dividend

The 10-year reached 4.97%, its highest since 2023, the morning the last inflation print before the FOMC hits. Oracle’s cloud infrastructure revenue doubled and it guided $90 billion for the year. Trump pledged $5,000 to every adult if Republicans hold Congress, a trillion-dollar promise into a market already short of buyers.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The War To Outlast the Presidency | Private Doubts | Hot Pipeline | Two AI Clocks

Sep 10, 2026

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6 min read

The War To Outlast the Presidency | Private Doubts | Hot Pipeline | Two AI Clocks

The White House's public timeline and its private one no longer match. Oil crossed $100 again. PPI accelerated on a diesel surge. Home sales are at their weakest in over a year.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Market Called Bessent's Bluff | The Yen-and-Yields Combo Threatens the Rally | Texas Poaches Its First NYSE Listing

Sep 10, 2026

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5 min read

The Market Called Bessent's Bluff | The Yen-and-Yields Combo Threatens the Rally | Texas Poaches Its First NYSE Listing

Bessent promised to go big, delivered a $6 billion buyback, and yields hit a three-year high anyway. A stronger yen and rising rates are now the bull market's biggest risk. Energy Transfer is leaving New York for the Texas Stock Exchange.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Amazon Borrows in Pounds | Buyback Underwhelms | Oil Hits $100

Sep 9, 2026

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3 min read

Amazon Borrows in Pounds | Buyback Underwhelms | Oil Hits $100

The Treasury buyback landed at $6 billion and yields kept climbing. Amazon borrowed in pounds because the dollar market is showing fatigue. Oil hit $100. Cognition doubled to $48 billion.

Dio Pouerie, +1

States Pull Back Data Center Tax Breaks | The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds | Six Chinese Firms Named

Sep 9, 2026

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5 min read

States Pull Back Data Center Tax Breaks | The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds | Six Chinese Firms Named

States are pulling the data center tax breaks. The yen is unwinding the AI trade's funding. US agencies name six Chinese firms copying American models.

Dio Pouerie, +1

GE Buys Its Supplier | SaaS Survives | China Builds Everywhere

Sep 8, 2026

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5 min read

GE Buys Its Supplier | SaaS Survives | China Builds Everywhere

Two major companies pulled suppliers and customers inside their walls on the same day. Software incumbents are holding up better than the market priced. Chinese automakers are building globally while Volkswagen closes plants.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Market Just Switched From Earnings to Macro | Iran's Oil Money Is Drying Up | The Data-Center Backlash Goes Bipartisan

Sep 8, 2026

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5 min read

The Market Just Switched From Earnings to Macro | Iran's Oil Money Is Drying Up | The Data-Center Backlash Goes Bipartisan

Hike odds swung from 35% to 60% in two weeks, and the market now trades on the Fed, not earnings. Iran's oil revenue could run out by mid-October. Nine states are weighing data-center bans as the AI land rush hits Main Street.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Sep 7, 2026

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4 min read

Wall Street's Unruly Season Starts Now

Nearly 100 years of data say this month is different. This year it comes with real tests.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week the CPI Has to Break a Tie the Fed Can't

Sep 6, 2026

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6 min read

The Week the CPI Has to Break a Tie the Fed Can't

The week just ended with the Fed split in the open. Governor Warsh leans toward a hike. Governor Waller, also a voting member, said give disinflation one meeting.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week One Fed Voter Undid a Month of Conviction

Sep 5, 2026

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6 min read

The Week One Fed Voter Undid a Month of Conviction

Global yields hit multi-decade highs, then one Fed governor reversed a month of selloff in an afternoon. Gold fell alongside bonds. Oil broke out and jet fuel hit $140. Broadcom joined Nvidia in financing its own customers. Friday's jobs report gave the hawks 162,000 reasons.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Labor Stays Hot | Norway Exits | Diesel Hits Record | FICO Disrupted

Sep 4, 2026

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5 min read

Labor Stays Hot | Norway Exits | Diesel Hits Record | FICO Disrupted

The jobs number removed one obstacle to a September hike. FICO lost its grip on mortgage underwriting. Norway is cutting US Treasury holdings in September's record supply month.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Wall Street Is Betting on Warsh to Hold a "Manic" Bond Market Together | Nvidia Retakes the AI Trade | OpenAI Ships Its "Critical" Model

Sep 4, 2026

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5 min read

Wall Street Is Betting on Warsh to Hold a "Manic" Bond Market Together | Nvidia Retakes the AI Trade | OpenAI Ships Its "Critical" Model

$200 billion of September supply is chasing the same dollars as $1.1 trillion of AI capex, and Wall Street is leaning on Warsh. Nvidia retook the AI trade and the Mag Seven neared a record. OpenAI shipped its most capable and most dangerous model. Oura filed at a premium.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Broadcom Will Finance Its Own AI Customers | Europe Is Short on Winter Gas | Washington Backs OpenAI on Copyright

Sep 3, 2026

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5 min read

Broadcom Will Finance Its Own AI Customers | Europe Is Short on Winter Gas | Washington Backs OpenAI on Copyright

Broadcom's CFO said on the record it may write modest guarantees so OpenAI and Anthropic can pay for what they ordered. Europe's gas storage is at a 15-year low into winter. Washington filed a brief backing OpenAI's right to train on copyrighted work.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Ryanair Cuts | SPR at 44-Year Low | Google Dodges Breakup

Sep 2, 2026

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6 min read

Ryanair Cuts | SPR at 44-Year Low | Google Dodges Breakup

The energy squeeze reached real airline decisions today. The bond selloff reached real mortgage rates. Google reached the finish line of another antitrust case without a breakup.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Fed Is Split on Hiking as the War Won't End | OpenAI Restricts Its "Critical" Cyber Model | Dell Surges as Token Prices Collapse

Sep 2, 2026

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5 min read

The Fed Is Split on Hiking as the War Won't End | OpenAI Restricts Its "Critical" Cyber Model | Dell Surges as Token Prices Collapse

A voting Fed governor says hike this month unless inflation eases; Bessent says look past the supply shock. OpenAI rated its new model "critical" for cyber risk and restricted it. Dell surged 9% on AI servers the day after token prices hit a record low.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Global Yields Surge | Tankers Hit | Barr Backs Hike

Sep 1, 2026

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6 min read

Global Yields Surge | Tankers Hit | Barr Backs Hike

Japan's 10-year hit 3% for the first time since 1996. UK Gilts reached 2008 levels. Two tankers were struck in Hormuz. Hike odds jumped to 66%.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The 10-Year Hit 4.75%, a Trump-Term High | Anthropic's $35B Nvidia-Backed Deal | FTC Sues Amazon

Sep 1, 2026

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5 min read

The 10-Year Hit 4.75%, a Trump-Term High | Anthropic's $35B Nvidia-Backed Deal | FTC Sues Amazon

The 10-year matched its highest close since January 2025. Anthropic's $35 billion of compute sits on a lease Nvidia takes itself. The FTC and 22 states say Amazon bid in its own ad auctions.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Corporate America Is Booming | Momentum Breaks | Hormuz Flares

Aug 31, 2026

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5 min read

Corporate America Is Booming | Momentum Breaks | Hormuz Flares

Corporate profits boomed on tariff refunds and a resilient consumer. Wall Street's momentum trade just had its worst quarter in 25 years. US forces struck Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Bo Nichols

Housing Stalls | Salesforce Model the Labs Fear | Washington Said No to AI Regulation

The New Buyer of US Debt Is a Hedge Fund | Oil Executives Say the Crisis Is Here | Fortress Warns on AI Credit

Rate Milestone | AI Safety Repricing | Airbnb Fills Gaps

Hot CPI Corners Warsh Ahead of the Fed | Saudi Pipeline Outage Threatens 4% of Oil Supply | AI Leaders Call for a Slowdown as OpenAI Delays Its IPO

The Week the Fed Puts a Number on 2027

The Week Capital Split Between the Finished and the Unfinished

The Print Landed. Now It's About What Comes After.

The 10-Year Is at the Door of 5% | CPI Lands This Morning | Oracle Doubled Its Cloud and Guided $90 Billion | Trump Promised a Trillion-Dollar Dividend

The War To Outlast the Presidency | Private Doubts | Hot Pipeline | Two AI Clocks

The Market Called Bessent's Bluff | The Yen-and-Yields Combo Threatens the Rally | Texas Poaches Its First NYSE Listing

Amazon Borrows in Pounds | Buyback Underwhelms | Oil Hits $100

States Pull Back Data Center Tax Breaks | The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds | Six Chinese Firms Named

GE Buys Its Supplier | SaaS Survives | China Builds Everywhere

The Market Just Switched From Earnings to Macro | Iran's Oil Money Is Drying Up | The Data-Center Backlash Goes Bipartisan

Wall Street's Unruly Season Starts Now

The Week the CPI Has to Break a Tie the Fed Can't

The Week One Fed Voter Undid a Month of Conviction

Labor Stays Hot | Norway Exits | Diesel Hits Record | FICO Disrupted

Wall Street Is Betting on Warsh to Hold a "Manic" Bond Market Together | Nvidia Retakes the AI Trade | OpenAI Ships Its "Critical" Model

Broadcom Will Finance Its Own AI Customers | Europe Is Short on Winter Gas | Washington Backs OpenAI on Copyright

Ryanair Cuts | SPR at 44-Year Low | Google Dodges Breakup

The Fed Is Split on Hiking as the War Won't End | OpenAI Restricts Its "Critical" Cyber Model | Dell Surges as Token Prices Collapse

Global Yields Surge | Tankers Hit | Barr Backs Hike

The 10-Year Hit 4.75%, a Trump-Term High | Anthropic's $35B Nvidia-Backed Deal | FTC Sues Amazon

Corporate America Is Booming | Momentum Breaks | Hormuz Flares

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