THE NUMBER About 15%.That is what two CoreWeave (CRWV) bonds yielded Wednesday, according to reported market data. They pay less than 10%. New debt would cost CoreWeave far more than its old debt. Bond investors want about 9.7 points over Tuesday's seven-year Treasury yield. The stock fell about 15%. CoreWeave's bond investors have named their price. PREMIER FEATURE One man turned $1,000 into a decadeslong passive income stream... eventually reaching $70,000 per year after 60 years! All from a single golf course tip. CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT HOW HE DID IT IN FOCUS The AI Companies That Borrow to Build Fell Hardest. Nvidia Fell a Fifth as Far.This morning, PMD named Wednesday's CPI as a read on what AI's money costs. The read came in hot. Futures odds of an October hike rose above 40%, from about 22%, CME data showed. The AI stocks that fell most were the borrowers. CoreWeave closed down about 15%. Nebius (NBIS) fell 10%. Oracle (ORCL), which has taken on big data-center commitments, fell about 9%. Nvidia (NVDA), which sells chips to all of them, fell 3%. Small companies went the same way. They tend to carry more floating-rate debt. The Russell 2000 closed in correction territory for the first time since its Aug. 14 record. BlackRock's Larry Fink made the case on his call that money will stay dear. Washington and AI builders are both borrowing heavily, he said. In his view, that contest for investors' money keeps borrowing costs high for years, even if inflation cools. Chipmakers Fell Less Than Their Customers. Building on Debt Got Dearer. For owners of AI builders and their lenders, Wednesday split two questions. The chip index fell 4.3%, its sixth straight loss. Still, it and Nvidia fell far less than the borrowers. That suggests investors worry more about how AI gets financed than about chip demand. The open question is whether firms that borrow to build can earn more than the rates they now pay. If borrowing costs like CoreWeave's hold, building plans could slow. Final terms on Volta's $5 billion AI loan, due after a 5 p.m. deadline, are the next price. SIGNALS IN MOTION SIGNAL 1: Fed Staff Found the Most Leveraged Retail Private-Credit Funds Held 0.2% in Liquid Assets. Exit Requests Eased.Fed staff mapped the funds that sell private credit to individuals. Non-traded BDCs held about $307 billion at the end of last year. Private credit was 93.4% of their holdings, and leverage averaged 0.9 times. Short-term liquid assets were 0.2%. Interval funds must buy back shares at set times. By the end of last year, they were nearly half private credit, up from about 20%. The note is staff research and sets no policy. In these funds, it says, stress shows up as redemption queues rather than outflows. The queue is shrinking slowly. Requests fell at 13 of the 15 non-traded BDCs Fitch tracks. They still averaged 9.8% of shares, and requests at nine funds still exceeded their 5% caps. New money keeps falling. Fitch expects it to take "several quarters" for the average request to drop under 5%. What resolves this Fourth-quarter tender results will show if requests fall below the caps. Any move to require cash buffers would show whether regulators take up the staff's map. SIGNAL 2: Kalshi's October Hike Bet Tripled in 40 Minutes. Sellers Then Took Back More Than Half.This morning, PMD said a hot core reading could put an October hike back in play. Kalshi's October hike contract last traded at 18 cents before the report. At 9:06 a.m., it hit 55 cents. It was at 35 cents by 1:47 p.m. and 33 cents near the close. Futures odds eased to about 37% later in the day. Citi, which had forecast no more hikes this year, now expects one in December. BofA remains the main bank calling for October. The Fed's Michelle Bowman said she feels no "urgency." The Fed's Beige Book found prices rising at least moderately in 11 of 12 districts. Growth was that strong in only two. Every district mentioned higher oil prices. What resolves this Producer prices and retail sales land Thursday morning. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the IMF meetings on Friday, before the Fed goes quiet. SIGNAL 3: Strive Offered 15% for New Money. The Median Crypto Stock Fell About Four Times as Far as Bitcoin.Strive (ASST) wants to raise $500 million with a new preferred stock paying a fixed 15%. Its older preferred, which ranks ahead, pays about 13%. Strive will set aside 18 months of dividends, about $112.5 million on a full sale. The money may buy bitcoin, other assets or Strive's own securities. Its stock fell about 11%. Bitcoin slipped about 2% to near $81,500 by early afternoon. Crypto stocks fell much further. By then, Robinhood (HOOD), the middle of the group, was down about 8.7%. That is four times the coin's drop. What resolves this Strive's final size and price will show what this money costs. Wednesday's fund flows will show whether bitcoin buyers stayed. THE CROSSOVER Private Market Trends Driving Public Market MovesWhen money gets dearer, the bill lands first on those who fund long assets with borrowed or redeemable money. CoreWeave borrows to build what takes years to pay off. Retail credit funds offer exits each quarter from loans that rarely trade. They lean on caps more than cash. Strive is offering 15% for money that may buy bitcoin. Chipmakers fell less than their customers. If Thursday's data keep an October hike alive, the next test may be rolling over debt rather than demand. That would reach lenders and fund holders as well as stocks. 3 STOCKS OUR SIGNAL ENGINE SAYS TO WATCH CAREFULLY Three stocks. Three signals. Two weeks later, the story changed.On September 2, we published three market questions around KLAC, HPE and PG&E.
Two weeks later, every one of them produced new evidence. One company delivered record revenue and raised its outlook.
Another saw weakness spread across its entire peer group.
And in the third, a market risk that had only been showing up beneath the surface suddenly became explicit.
Yet none of these stories is finished. That’s why we built Market Tell.
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