
THE NUMBER $250 million.That is about what each of Anthropic's seven co-founders will sell in its IPO, at $74, the midpoint of the $70 to $78 range. The amended filing came out Tuesday. Together, the founders sell about $1.75 billion. They are the only existing holders selling, so Anthropic gets none of that money. Each founder is selling about 1.4% of their holdings. At the midpoint, each stake was worth about $18 billion before the sale. A single founders' share will carry 50.1% of shareholder votes, and a trust can elect a majority of the board. The range values Anthropic at roughly $1.3 trillion to $1.4 trillion, fully diluted. CNBC has reported that Anthropic plans to price the shares on Nov. 18. A price outside the range would change these figures. Public buyers would get an economic stake. The founders keep the votes.
THE SETUP - The cash Treasury market is closed today for Veterans Day. Stocks trade. At about 6 a.m., Nasdaq-100 futures were up about 1.8% and S&P 500 futures about 0.8%. Nvidia, down about 5.5% on Tuesday, was nearly 5% higher before the bell.
- With U.S. cash bonds shut, Japan's 10-year yield rose 11 basis points overnight, to about 2.8%. Australia's rose 6.
- Brent was near $93, up about 1.6% from Tuesday's settle. The government's energy forecaster expects about $100 for the rest of the year.
- Kalshi's December quarter-point hike contract traded at 84 to 85 cents after 6 a.m., just below its late Tuesday price.
PMD Signal Tracker 
IN FOCUS CoreWeave's Interest Bill Was About Four Times Its Operating Profit. It Plans to Borrow Against Customer Contracts.CoreWeave beat forecasts and raised its outlook late Tuesday. Its net interest expense was $846 million for the quarter. Operating profit under standard accounting was $207 million. The shares were up about 13% before the bell. The new part is the funding. CoreWeave expects about $9 billion of customer prepayments and deposits in the next three months. It plans to fund most of its remaining capital spending with loans tied to specific customer contracts. At current yields, it does not plan to sell more unsecured debt at the parent company through 2027. It also set up a program to sell up to 35 million new shares. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said Tuesday that more clarity on AI financing would increase her confidence in future policy decisions. Customers Fund the Build, or Shareholders Do. One reading: prepayments and contract-backed loans let customers carry the build. Another: the interest bill and the new share program leave shareholders holding the financing risk. How fast the $9 billion arrives, and how much stock CoreWeave sells, would show which.
FROM OUR PARTNERS 
A small Colorado company now owns rights to a tech that could save the entire public power grid from collapse. And billionaire Sam Altman is now an investor. Click here to learn this company's name for free. This ad is sent on behalf of Altimetry, 110 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02141. If you would like to optout from receiving offers from Altimetry please click here.
SIGNALS IN MOTION SIGNAL 1: KPS Valued MM Group's Packaging Arm at €2.4 Billion. By MM's Count, the Market Valued the Whole Group at About €2.3 Billion.KPS Capital Partners agreed to buy MM Group's packaging business at an enterprise value of €2.4 billion. That is about nine times its expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA. By MM's own math, the market valued the entire group at about €2.3 billion on Nov. 6, debt included. KPS will own 70% and MM 30%. MM's stake can fall to as little as 20% if the business misses 2027 profit targets. MM expects €1.8 billion to €1.9 billion in cash and plans a special payout of €0.5 billion to €0.6 billion. Its shares rose about 9% in Vienna on Tuesday. KPS has not disclosed its financing. WHAT RESOLVES THIS A French works-council consultation is under way. Completion is expected in the first half of 2027. SIGNAL 2: Bain's Tender for Hokuriku Electric Industry Opens Today at a 72% Premium. A Board Committee Pushed the Price Up.Bain Capital's offer to take Hokuriku Electric Industry private opens Wednesday at ¥4,180 a share. That is about 72% above the Nov. 9 close. The company cited a median premium of about 47% across 72 Japanese take-privates since 2019. Hokuriku approached five private equity firms in July. A second bidder was rejected on Oct. 27. Bain then raised its price from ¥4,090 after the board's special committee pushed for more. In Tokyo on Wednesday, the shares rose 500 yen, the most allowed in a day, to ¥3,135. That is about 25% below Bain's price. WHAT RESOLVES THIS The tender closes Dec. 23. Ferrotec, with 13.36%, and three other holders have agreed to tender toward the two-thirds minimum. SIGNAL 3: Pizza Hut Plans to Borrow About $1 Billion Against Its Franchise Fees to Refinance Its Buyout, Bloomberg Reported.Pizza Hut plans to sell about $1 billion of bonds backed by its franchise income, Bloomberg reported. The money would repay financing tied to LongRange Capital's purchase of Pizza Hut outside China from Yum Brands. LongRange closed that deal, reported at $1.5 billion, in September, with funding from UBS. The bonds would cover about two-thirds of that price. They would be backed by royalties, fees and intellectual property, not by restaurants. At least $600 million is expected to be sold next week. The expected spread is about 2 to 3 percentage points over benchmarks. That is an early expectation, not a final price. WHAT RESOLVES THIS Pricing of the first slice next week, and whether it grows or shrinks.
WHAT MOST WILL MISS - Bitmine raised $13.2 billion by selling stock to buy ether. It posted a $6.31 billion annual loss, almost all of it unrealized losses on the coin. Its ether cost about $3,380 a coin. Ether was near $2,057 early Wednesday. After the close today, MSCI is set to publish its list of companies it now classes as non-operating, a screen aimed at firms that mainly hold assets such as crypto.
- OpenAI's revenue reached about $10 billion last quarter, Bloomberg reported. Its operating loss widened to $10.9 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported.
THE CROSSOVER Private Market Trends Driving Public Market MovesSponsors Paid Up for Control. Anthropic's Public Buyers Will Get Little of It. Bain offered about 72% over Hokuriku's Nov. 9 close. KPS valued MM's packaging arm above the whole group's enterprise value, by MM's count. Both buyers would get control. Anthropic's range values it at up to about $1.4 trillion, while a founders' share keeps 50.1% of the votes. One reading: private buyers pay extra for control, and public buyers accept less of it to get in. Another: Anthropic's buyers are paying for growth, and votes would not change the price. On the calendar... When | Event | Wed., Nov. 11 | Veterans Day, bond market closed; Hokuriku tender opens; OPEC monthly report; MSCI index review, after close; Huang's reply to House chairs due | Thu., Nov. 12 | 30-year bond sale; weekly government oil data; Cisco and Applied Materials report after the close | Tue., Nov. 17 | Nvidia reports | Wed., Nov. 18 | Fed minutes | Wed., Dec. 9 | Fed decision |
Big Pharma’s new ‘AI co-scientist’ |