Apollo's Lending Hit a Record | Oil Gave Back | Oracle Closed Above Its Offer

333,000.

That is how much job openings rose in September. The total, 7.5 million, beat forecasts. The Labor Department still called the level little changed. About a third of the rise came from state and local government outside education. Prediction markets put the odds of a December rate hike near 74%, a bit above Monday. The 10-year yield rose, but it was already rising before the report.

The headline was hotter than the details, and Friday's payrolls report is the bigger test.

• The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose, while the Dow fell. Overnight, Apple (AAPL) and Palantir (PLTR) were each about 5% lower in thin trading. Both pared their losses to less than 2% in regular trading.
• Eaton (ETN) rose about 7% after backlog in one electrical segment more than doubled. Gartner (IT) fell about 13%, even after raising its forecast. Sysco (SYY) fell about 9% after its sales missed forecasts.
• Coinbase (COIN) rose more than 5%, a day after hitting a 52-week low. Circle (CRCL) and Strategy (MSTR) rose more than bitcoin did.
• AMD (AMD) reports after the close. Analysts expect $1.95 a share on $13.1 billion of sales. Its stock rose about 4% ahead of the report. Polls close tonight, and results come in overnight.

Apollo Originated a Record $114 Billion. Its Flagship Private Equity Strategy Lost 2.6% Before Fees.

Apollo (APO) made a record $114 billion of new loans and other credit. It took in $53 billion of new money in the quarter, and the assets it manages are above $1 trillion. Fee-related earnings rose 23%, ahead of forecasts.

The same report showed its flagship private equity strategy lost 2.6% in the quarter, before fees. It is still up 2% over 12 months. Its credit strategies ranged from a 1.8% gain to a 0.2% loss.

Under standard accounting, Apollo lost $1.1 billion. It blamed most of that on paper losses at Athene, its insurance arm. Adjusted earnings missed forecasts. The stock fell about 5%, and nothing shows which of these drove the drop.

The record comes as investors lower their hopes for what private loans pay. Bloomberg Intelligence surveyed investors this fall. Most now expect private credit to pay at most 1 point more than syndicated loans. In April, only a fifth did. Most managers still expect 2 points or more.

Record Lending Puts the Focus on What New Loans Pay.

If investors are right, managers may have to take lower loan pricing or lower fees. That would test fee growth like Apollo's. KKR (KKR) reports Nov. 9. Its results will show whether credit is leading at other managers too.

SIGNAL 1: Oil Gave Back Its Overnight Bounce. Ten Ceasefire Contracts Have Now Settled "No."

This morning, PMD said crude had won back more than a fifth of Monday's drop. By the settle, all of that gain was gone. U.S. crude dipped below $94, then settled at $96.09, down 37 cents. Brent swung more than $6 and settled at $103.60, down about 1%.

Polymarket has now resolved ten ceasefire contracts "No", up from six Monday night. Each one turns on whether a U.S. strike hit Iranian land. U.S. officials, not named, called Monday's strike limited and defensive. Central Command has not commented. Two earlier contracts are still in dispute.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Oil and the contracts moved apart. One explanation is that the contracts pay on whether a strike happened, while oil trades on the chance of a deal. If that holds, crude may keep swinging on news about the talks more than on strikes. Rulings on the two disputed contracts and Wednesday's weekly oil data come next.

SIGNAL 2: Oracle Closed Nearly 9% Above Its $116 Offer Price. A Long-Dated Oracle Bond Fell.

Our morning issue called Tuesday the first full test of the $116 price. Oracle (ORCL) closed near $126, up about 6%. That is nearly 9% above the offer. Tech shares rose broadly, so the gain was not Oracle's alone.

Its 6.85% bonds due 2066 fell more than a point the same day, trading data showed. The new notes pay 7% to 8.65% a year.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Shareholders may have welcomed a raise that is capped and done. Bond investors, in contrast, put a higher cost on Oracle's debt. Both sales close Wednesday. Trading in the new notes and shares after that will show which view lasts.

SIGNAL 3: Carlyle and PAI Agreed to Sell Theramex to Cinven. The Price Is Only Reported.

Carlyle (CG) and PAI Partners agreed to sell Theramex, a women's health drugmaker, to Cinven. They did not disclose terms. A report, citing people familiar, put the value near €2.6 billion. The sellers said Theramex's EBITDA has more than doubled since they bought it in 2022.

A sale to another buyout firm would return cash to the sellers' investors without an IPO. Another report said Cinven is asking banks for about €1.5 billion of debt. If both reports are right, debt would be nearly 60% of the price, by our math. Reports differ on what the sellers paid, so no return can be worked out.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The debt sale will show whether banks commit at that size. If they do, lenders are still funding large European health care buyouts. Carlyle reports Thursday, and the sale is expected to close in the first half of next year.

• The CFTC said perpetual futures on single stocks can begin trading on U.S. exchanges for the first time. It named no venue, no stock and no start date. Coinbase (COIN) has filed to offer them, and Kalshi has reportedly proposed its own rules.
• D.R. Horton (DHI) fell 5%, erasing more than its Monday gain. Brent settled lower again, but the 10-year yield rose. Builders tracked yields, not crude.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

What happened is settled. What it is worth is not.

Private markets confirm a deal long before they confirm its value. Apollo's flagship return arrives once a quarter, and Theramex's value is known only from reports. Public markets moved faster. In one session, Oracle's stock and its long bond split on the same raise. One reading: public markets may show where private marks are headed. Another: one session, or one quarter, says little on its own.

On the calendar...