Apollo Wrote the Biggest Checks Last Week. Now It Reports, and the Treasury Sets Its Plan.

Last week, private money committed in size.

Funds run by Apollo (APO) backed SpaceX's $40 billion chip lease and all of ADT's buyout financing. Advent closed its flagship near $27 billion, while Ares (ARES) invested about 17% less than a year ago. Where public buyers set the price, it came in lower. MFIC agreed to sell at about 85% of its stated value.

This week, the first prices come due. Midterm elections are Tuesday. The Treasury sets its next quarter of bond sales Wednesday. October jobs land Friday. The Fed does not meet again until Dec. 8-9.

The 10-year yield fell to about 4.93% Friday, its lowest in seven weeks. Traders still price a December hike as more likely than not.

Below are the six places capital needs to be priced next. Each is marked scheduled or open-ended. All times are Eastern.

Apollo Reports Tuesday. How Much of SpaceX and ADT Does It Keep? (Scheduled)

Apollo (APO) reports before Tuesday's open and holds its call at 8:30 a.m. Its funds sit inside last week's biggest deals.

An Apollo-run entity will own the chips in SpaceX (SPCX)'s lease. Apollo funds also committed all of the preferred equity and debt behind ADT (ADT)'s $15.3 billion buyout. Apollo is putting a little over $1 billion into Mubadala Capital. Its affiliates own 5.2% of MFIC, the fund Ares Capital agreed to buy, and will vote yes. It had planned to start loan-by-loan marks on Oct. 30.

Carlyle (CG) reports Thursday. KKR (KKR), whose accounts anchored the SpaceX lease, holds its call Nov. 9.

What to Watch

Listen for how much of SpaceX and ADT Apollo plans to hold and how much it will sell to others. A wide sell-down at a tight rate would say demand for this debt is deep. Holding most of it would put more AI and buyout risk on Apollo's own funds. Retail inflows will show if its wealth clients still want more.

The Treasury Sets Its Plan Wednesday. Can Long Yields Stay Below 5%? (Scheduled)

Treasury posts borrowing estimates Monday and its refunding plan Wednesday. Microsoft (MSFT)'s $25 billion of new bonds settle the same day, with notes out to 40 years. October jobs follow Friday.

Long yields set refinancing costs. About $300 billion of buyout-backed debt starts coming due in 2028, a report said. Owners are seeking extensions. Alphabet (GOOGL) has added nearly $79 billion of long-term debt this year, and Amazon (AMZN)'s chief said spending will be meaningfully higher next year. Floating-rate loans hinge on December instead. After the Fed's 10-2 hold, an average of Kalshi and Polymarket put a December hike near 83%.

What to Watch

A larger sale plan could push long yields back above 5%, as AI borrowers add their own long debt. A soft jobs report would ease December odds and floating coupons with them. How Microsoft's 40-year note trades will show the price of very long tech debt.

MFIC Posts Its Final Value Nov. 5. What Is a Credit Fund Worth? (Scheduled and Open-ended)

MidCap Financial reports Thursday, with its final Sept. 30 value. Ares Capital (ARCC) agreed to pay $10.88 a share against a first estimate of $12.86. Before the deal, MFIC (MFIC) traded near 65% of that estimate.

Unlisted funds have their own dates. Cox Capital's $7.31 bid for Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. shares, 20% under stated value, runs to Nov. 25. That fund filled 29.8% of exit requests last quarter, filings show. Blue Owl (OWL) said requests at its main retail credit fund fell for a second quarter. A HarbourVest fund's holders vote Nov. 16 on a buyback at 90% of asset value. Australia's regulator says more private credit findings are coming "soon".

What to Watch

A final value below $12.86 would shrink the discount on paper. One near it would leave holders selling at about 85 cents. Any rise in holders taking Cox's 20% discount would show how much waiting now costs.

ADT's Go-Shop Runs to Nov. 28. Will Anyone Top $10? (Scheduled)

ADT reports Tuesday. A rival that signs by Nov. 28 pays a $114 million break fee, against $227 million later. Thrive has a right to match. ADT closed Friday at $9.87, 1.3% under the price.

Two more take-private bids have dates. Wendy's (WEN) reports Thursday, as a committee of independent directors weighs Trian's $7.35 plan. LCI (LCII) and Patrick (PATK) holders vote Nov. 18 on a stock deal worth about $88 a share. Monomoy has proposed $101 in cash.

What to Watch

A wider ADT spread would say traders doubt the close. A narrower one, or a rival bid, would say the $10 left room. A binding Monomoy offer before Nov. 18 would put cash against a shrinking stock deal.

What Will SpaceX's Lease Cost? Will OpenAI Close? (Open-ended)

No date is set for either. SpaceX (SPCX)'s lease rate is fixed at pricing, and the lease should close before year-end. Rent runs about one-twentieth of the cost each quarter, plus that rate.

OpenAI was close to raising up to $30 billion at $1.25 trillion, people familiar said. Commitments were expected around Oct. 30. No close had been reported by Friday. Cohere's later closes will show how much of its C$7 billion it raised. TPG's talks for Ark at about $5 billion could still fail.

What to Watch

The SpaceX rate is the first public price on chip debt at this scale. Since the lessor owns the chips, the rate may also reflect how fast they lose value. An OpenAI close at $1.25 trillion would hold a mark well above March, even as public AI stocks fell. A cut would tell funds to mark private AI lower.

Bids Come Due on Ingenia and Kakaku. OPay Settles Monday. (Scheduled)

AVID's deadline to match Warburg Pincus on Ingenia is Sunday. Warburg's cash price is A$5.45, with two units pre-sold to partners. It still needs binding debt.

EQT's Kakaku offer runs to Nov. 12 at ¥3,683. A Bain Capital group has proposed ¥3,700 and expects to launch in mid-November. Kakaku has traded above both.

OPay (OPAY)'s offering closes Monday. It priced at $19, the bottom of its range, at about $4 billion.

What to Watch

A match from AVID would reopen Ingenia's price. A higher EQT bid would close Kakaku's gap with the market. OPay's trade against $19 will show whether public buyers back its doubled private mark.