Ares to Buy Below Value | Confidence Hit Its Best Level | GM Is Moving

About 85 cents.

Ares Capital (ARCC) said Tuesday it agreed to buy a listed fund, MidCap Financial (MFIC). The headline price is $10.88 a share, 30% above Monday's close. The fund's first estimate of its own value is about $12.86 a share. So the price comes to about 85 cents on each dollar of that value.

The premium is to the market. The discount is to the fund's own books.

• Stocks rose for a second day. The S&P 500 closed up 0.6% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
• Brent eased for a second day. U.S. crude slipped below $100.
• New Zealand's central bank decides Tuesday night and Canada's on Wednesday. Markets priced both to hike. The Fed, which raised rates in September, is expected to hold Wednesday.
• Boeing (BA) fell about 11%. Its core loss was wider than forecast, and its plane unit lost money, even as its backlog hit a record.

Ares Capital Agreed to Buy an Apollo-Run Fund at 30% Above Its Stock Price and About 15% Below Its Stated Value.

This morning's PMD looked at holders of BDCs that don't trade and who are waiting to get their money out. On Tuesday, holders of one that does trade got a deal price. Ares Capital agreed to buy MFIC, a fund run by an affiliate of Apollo (APO). The deal values it at about $2.6 billion with debt.

Each share gets $1.21 in cash plus about $9.67 in Ares Capital stock. The cash comes from Ares Capital's adviser, part of Ares Management (ARES), not from either fund. The stock is counted at Ares Capital's book value, which sits above its share price. So at Tuesday's prices, the package was worth less than $10.88.

Several terms favor the buyer. Ares Capital holders get no vote. The fund's holders can't ask a court to set the price. Apollo affiliates that own 5.2% have agreed to vote yes. The fund would owe a fee of about $31 million if it took a better offer. Ares Capital owes nothing if the deal fails.

The fund's shares rose about 23%, to about $10.26. The package was worth a little more. Other listed BDCs rose too. Apollo keeps its MidCap lending arm. Only the listed fund is for sale.

One Fund, Three Prices

One reading: the stock closed Monday near 65% of the fund's own value, so a 30% premium beats waiting. Another: holders would sell below the fund's books, on terms that favor the buyer. The fund posts its final value on Nov. 5.

SIGNAL 1: Confidence Hit Its Best Level Since June. Households Still Expect 5.8% Inflation.

The Conference Board's index jumped to 91.7, far above the 81 that was forecast. That was the household read this morning's PMD flagged. The group tied the jump to cheaper gas. It also said the long-term trend is still down.

Households still expect 5.8% inflation over the next year. They also expect rates to rise. Bond yields barely moved. On Kalshi, traders bought about 140,000 contracts at 7 cents. Each pays $1 if the Fed raises rates a quarter point on Wednesday. The price did not budge.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Wednesday brings the Fed's call, with a hold expected. Thursday brings Q3 growth and September's PCE prices.

SIGNAL 2: GM Will Move Its Listing to Nasdaq. Its Stock Rose More Than Ford's.

General Motors (GM) said it will move from the NYSE to Nasdaq on Nov. 17, keeping its ticker. That makes it eligible to join the Nasdaq-100. Being eligible is not being picked. Nasdaq picks by size, and where GM would rank is not yet clear. Walmart (WMT) took the same path last year and joined the index in January.

GM closed up about 5.6%, and Ford (F) rose about 1.3%. The wider market rose too. Tesla (TSLA) gained about 4%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

By Nasdaq's own rules, the year-end index change would be named on Dec. 11. Nasdaq has said nothing about GM.

SIGNAL 3: Ripple Signed Up Robinhood and BNY for Its Dollar Token. Bitcoin Climbed Back Above $80,000.

This morning, bitcoin was back under $80,000. Late Tuesday, it was back above that line. Ripple said its dollar token is now live on Robinhood's own blockchain and on Bitstamp. It is expected in the Robinhood (HOOD) app later this year.

BNY (BNY) added the token and XRP to its custody service. It intends to let clients create and redeem the token through the bank. No one disclosed terms or volumes. The deals came the morning after Ripple announced a federal trust charter.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Robinhood was due to report after Tuesday's close. Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) report Thursday.

• Advent raised close to $27 billion for its new buyout fund. That beat its target. This year it has cashed out about $13 billion of deals and put in about $10 billion, it said.
• JetBlue (JBLU) jumped about 19%. On Monday, it raised its forecast for revenue per seat mile, though its quarterly loss was wider than expected. Its secured notes traded near 47 cents on the dollar Monday, reports said. Its CEO sees a "disconnect" between bond prices and its results.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Three of Tuesday's headline numbers had a second price under them.

MFIC's deal price sits between the stock and the fund's own books. GM can join an index but has not been picked. One reading: the space between a headline and a trade is the cost of waiting for a dated check. The fund gets its final value on Nov. 5, and GM gets its answer in December. JetBlue's stock and bonds have no such date to settle their split.

On the calendar...