Chevron Beat on Refining | OPay Doubled Its Private Mark | ADT's Contract Halves the Fee for Rival Bid

29%.

Intel (INTC) closed down about 29% on Friday. Its overnight drop deepened once regular trading began. Its sales forecast for this quarter came in below what analysts expected. Its chief said customers began to signal a PC slowdown tied to memory prices and supply. Dell (DELL) and AMD (AMD) each closed down about 11%.

This morning, Intel was quoted about 25% lower. By the close, the selling had spread to firms that sell into the PC market.

• Tech stocks fell hardest while energy, health care and utilities rose. The Nasdaq closed down about 2.9% and the S&P 500 about 2.1%. The Dow fell more than 1%.
• Amazon (AMZN) pared a premarket drop of about 7% and closed about 1.4% lower.
• Employers' pay costs rose 0.8% last quarter, matching forecasts. After inflation, wages and salaries fell over the past year.
• The 10-year yield fell to about 4.93%, its lowest in seven weeks. Gold fell about 3.5% to a 52-week low. A Fed official still said another rate rise is needed "soon."

Exxon and Chevron Beat in a Quarter When Oil Was Cheaper. Refining Carried Both.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) earned $4.23 a share on an adjusted basis, above the $4.08 analysts expected. Chevron (CVX) earned $5.28, against $4.89. Brent averaged $97 a barrel last quarter, down from $104 the quarter before, Chevron said.

The beats came from refining. Exxon's refining and fuels arm earned $9.0 billion, up about 120% from the prior quarter. Its oil and gas output earned $7.3 billion, down about 20%. Chevron's U.S. refineries ran a record volume of crude. Its production profit fell about 30% from the second quarter.

Exxon returned $9.4 billion to holders last quarter and set a $20 billion buyback for 2027. Chevron returned about $6 billion. Exxon closed up about 2.2% and Chevron about 1.7%. Both touched record highs during the day. This morning, PMD noted BP's refining profit. The two largest U.S. oil companies now tell the same story.

For Drivers, the Refining Margin Is Part of the Bill

A refining margin is the gap between what crude costs and what fuel sells for. When it widens, more of each fuel dollar goes to refiners. Pay after inflation fell over the past year, so households may feel that gap more. Exxon set its 2027 buyback before anyone knows next year's margins. Winter fuel margins are the test.

SIGNAL 1: OPay Priced Its IPO at the Bottom of Its Range. It Still Doubled Its Last Private Mark.

OPay (OPAY) sold 16 million American depositary shares at $19, the low end of a $19 to $21 range. It raised $304 million. That values the payments firm at about $4 billion, Reuters and Bloomberg reported. In 2021, a private round valued it at $2 billion.

The shares began trading on the NYSE on Friday. The low price says buyers pushed back. For the private backers, it is still a markup on their last round.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

First-week trading, whether underwriters buy 2.4 million more shares, and the Nov. 2 closing.

SIGNAL 2: ADT's Contract Halves the Fee for a Rival Bid During the Go-Shop. The Stock Still Closed Below $10.

Last night, PMD said the merger agreement would show the break fees. ADT filed it late Thursday. A superior bid accepted during the go-shop would trigger a $114 million fee. After it, the fee is $227 million. Thrive Holdings has a right to match. If Thrive's side fails to close, it owes ADT $473 million. Funds managed by Apollo (APO) have committed preferred equity and debt.

ADT (ADT) closed at $9.87, 1.3% under the $10 cash price. That works out to about 3.2% a year if the deal closes at the end of March. It pays for waiting, with little added for a higher bid.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

ADT reports Nov. 3. The go-shop ends Nov. 28, and talks can run to Dec. 8 with a bidder who comes forward in time.

SIGNAL 3: Both Big Prediction Markets Put Democratic Senate Odds Above 70%. No Single Piece of News Lines Up.

Polymarket's contract on Democratic control of the Senate rose to 72.5 cents from 68.5 cents by early afternoon. Kalshi's rose to 71 cents from 67. The largest trade was a 50,000-contract buy of Kalshi's Democratic side at 71 cents.

In the same 24 hours, President Trump canceled stops in Iowa and Kansas in favor of tele-rallies. A Kansas Senate poll showed a three-point race. None of it lines up with the timing of the biggest trade.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Final polls in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Alaska and Maine, then election night on Nov. 3.

• UK filings show chipmaker Fractile raised about £577 million, by one count. Another count of the same filings put it at £540 million. Some investors paid about half the top price. The firm has not announced the round or a value.
• Coinbase's chief, president and a co-founder set up plans to sell up to 13.6 million shares. None has sold under them yet. Coinbase (COIN) hit a 52-week low and closed about 11% lower.
• Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) closed down about 64%. Its holders did not lose that money. The stock went ex on a $4.10 liquidating payout paid Thursday.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Friday priced cash in hand and promises differently.

This morning, PMD gave two readings of private prices. One: private buyers see a long runway. Another: they have not yet had to price a bad quarter. Friday brought a test. In a week of AI selling, OPay priced its IPO at the bottom of its range. It still doubled its 2021 private mark.

Where cash was in hand, prices held up better. Exxon (XOM) returned $9.4 billion last quarter and touched a record high. ADT (ADT) holders would get $10 in cash if the deal closes, with Apollo funds behind the financing. Elsewhere, the discount showed. Coinbase (COIN) now trades below Kalshi's $40 billion private price, though one is a market quote and the other a negotiated round. Inside Fractile's round, some investors paid about half what others did.

One reading: on a red day, buyers paid for cash and marked down promises. Another: one bad week does not reset a private mark. OPay's first weeks and ADT's go-shop will start to show which.

On the calendar...