The chip index entered a bear market after China's Moonshot AI released a model that outperforms some US systems. Apple reclaimed the title of most valuable US company from Nvidia. The Fed hike bloc extended to eight positions.
Chips sold off hard.
A Chinese AI startup just released a model nobody saw coming. The Nasdaq is down around 4% on the week.
Apple is now the most valuable company in America again. Nvidia held that title for 265 trading days.
SpaceX lost over a trillion dollars in market cap from its peak. Its rocket test was scrubbed too.
The Fed split is wider than it looks. Eight officials have now publicly positioned themselves on rates heading into July 28.
PMD LENS
Eight Fed officials have staked out positions before the July 28 blackout. Five lean toward hiking. Two are holding. The chair is silent. June import prices rose on the same week CPI and PPI cooled. That is the tariff-and-AI-capex transmission mechanism landing directly in the rate debate.
The Seven Hottest IPOs On Wall Street’s 2026 Watchlist — FREE
The 2026 pipeline looks very different from years past.
Here’s what’s attached to some of the companies expected to headline the calendar:
• $24 billion in annualized revenue.
• 55% year-over-year revenue growth.
• $1.4+ billion in pre-tax profit.
• 200+ million monthly active users.
• Eight consecutive years of profitability.
Unlike many IPOs, those aren’t projections ten years out - they’re current figures tied to a select set of private companies preparing for public markets.
- Netflix (NFLX) fell sharply after warning of its slowest growth quarter since 2023.
- SpaceX's Starship test was scrubbed Thursday due to engine problems.
- Import prices from China rose at an 18-year high monthly rate in June.
- US gasoline is already back above $3.94 after the ceasefire-driven dip.
Eight Fed Officials Have Now Positioned Themselves. The Chair Is Still Silent.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a voting member this year, posted on LinkedIn Friday that inflation is too high and the labor market is at maximum employment. She said for the first time in her tenure, businesses are telling her the Fed needs to act on inflation. She named energy costs, supply chain disruptions, insurance premiums, and the AI boom as drivers.
That follows Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan calling for modestly higher rates Thursday. Both Logan and Hammack vote this year. Five officials now lean toward hiking. Two say hold. Warsh has said nothing that commits him either way.
The June import price data adds fuel. Import prices rose sharply in June against expectations for a decline. Annual import prices jumped to their highest since August 2022. China-specific import prices had their biggest monthly rise since January 2008. The BLS named computers, peripherals, and semiconductors as drivers. The AI buildout is showing up in import prices the same week CPI and PPI cooled. Those are different inflation channels hitting the tape simultaneously before the vote.
The bond market context makes the decision harder. Warsh told Congress this week the Fed is not in the business of bailing out the Treasury. Near-record budget deficits mean roughly $2 trillion in new Treasury issuance every year. Hedge funds now hold nearly double their 2023 share of outstanding Treasurys. Price-sensitive buyers are the marginal buyer. A rate hike hits that fragile setup directly.
The Signal to Watch
Any additional voting member speaking before Saturday's blackout moves the hike bloc from eight to nine. Fed funds futures repricing September odds above 60% before the meeting confirms the market caught up to the committee.
Hidden in Tesla's Filing: A $12 Billion "Super Startup"
Pull up Tesla's most recent SEC filing. Page 5.
And you'll see a single line showing $12 billion in revenue from a brand-new "super startup" Elon Musk has been quietly incubating inside Tesla.
This new "super startup" has nothing to do with cars or robots or space or AI…
But it sits at the center of what Blackstone calls "a $23 trillion investment opportunity."
And on July 22, Elon is expected to pull back the curtain and reveal exactly what he's building.
But Adam O'Dell already knows… and he reveals it all in this urgent video.
SIGNAL 1: Chip Stocks Entered a Bear Market. China's Moonshot AI Is Why.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 20% from its late June peak on Friday. That is the technical bear market threshold. The index had surged over 100% between its March low and last month's peak.
China's Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weight model. Moonshot said it outperforms Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT 5.5 on coding and general agent benchmarks. Bank of America analysts called it a step-change gain demonstrating that Chinese labs can deliver frontier-level results despite hardware constraints.
JPMorgan's data team put it bluntly in a client note: "DeepSeek 2.0 concerns." Z.ai fell sharply in Hong Kong. SoftBank Group lost nearly 10%. Alibaba (BABA), which backs Moonshot alongside Tencent, dropped. Taiwan and Japan's benchmark indexes each fell over 6% overnight.
One JPMorgan strategist said this is a wobble driven by crowded positioning rather than the end of the AI trade. He noted demand for computing power remains strong. The debate is not whether AI continues. It's whether current chip valuations assumed a head start that Chinese labs just partially erased.
The Signal to Watch
Any US hyperscaler cutting AI capex guidance tied to Chinese model competition before Q3 earnings converts the selloff from positioning-driven to structural.
SIGNAL 2: Apple Reclaimed the Most Valuable Company Title. Nvidia's Streak Ended.
Apple (AAPL) reclaimed the title of most valuable US publicly traded company, edging past Nvidia (NVDA). Nvidia had held the position for 265 trading days. Its market cap peaked in May and has fallen more than 15% since.
Apple's stock rose sharply over the past year driven by iPhone 17 demand and a multiple expansion that outpaced Nvidia's hardware premium. Apple raised prices on Macs and iPads due to memory costs, which briefly dented the stock. It recovered anyway.
Alphabet (GOOGL) sits in third. Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and TSMC trail. SpaceX (SPCX) sits at roughly $1.6 trillion after losing over a trillion dollars from its peak. Anthropic and OpenAI are queued behind it.
The market is repricing AI leadership from GPU supplier to consumer ecosystem holder. Nvidia lost the crown the same day the chip index entered a bear market. The buyer pool heading into Anthropic's October IPO is watching this sequence closely.
The Signal to Watch
An Nvidia earnings guide-down or Apple product cycle miss before Q3 earnings converts the crown swap from a valuation story into a broader AI leadership reset.
SIGNAL 3: Gas Prices Are Staying High Even as Oil Moves.
US retail gasoline sits at $3.94 a gallon, up roughly a third from pre-war levels. Gasoline crack spreads are at their highest in four years. Global refining capacity processed significantly fewer barrels in Q2 than a year ago. Middle Eastern refiners are running well below 2025 levels. Russia has knocked a quarter of its refining capacity offline from Ukrainian drone strikes and is now buying gasoline from India and Belarus.
US gasoline inventories are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year. Biofuel blending compliance costs have risen sharply, adding to pump prices. Consumer sentiment rose in July but the survey director warned the gains may not hold if gas prices reverse. One-year inflation expectations eased slightly but remain elevated.
Gasoline is transmitting the oil supply shock to the consumer more persistently than crude oil prices alone would suggest. The Fed is meeting in 11 days. Retail gasoline above $3.94 is the live consumer-facing inflation reading heading into that vote.
The Signal to Watch
Any single-week gasoline move above $4.15 before the July 29 core PCE print converts the supply story into a documented Fed inflation transmission event.
I Became a Millionaire Here While I Was Still in College
This little-known building in Pasadena is where I learned about a kind of investment most people never get access to. Twenty years later, that same opportunity is wide open again. And it's all because of what's about to happen to OpenAI and Anthropic.
This ad is sent on behalf of InvestorPlace Media at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, please click here.
Any additional voting FOMC member speaking before Saturday's blackout moves the hike bloc. Gasoline above $4.15 before the PCE print converts the supply story into documented Fed transmission. A hyperscaler cutting AI capex guidance tied to Kimi K3 converts the chip selloff from positioning to structural. An Nvidia earnings guide-down or Apple product miss before Q3 earnings resets the AI leadership hierarchy.
Eight Fed officials have positioned on rates with five leaning toward hiking. Chip stocks entered a bear market on Moonshot's Kimi K3. Apple reclaimed the crown at $4.91 trillion. Gas sits at $3.94.
What the tape already knows: the Fed is split 5-to-2 with Warsh silent, Chinese open-source models are matching US frontier labs on benchmarks, and gasoline sits 32% above pre-war levels. What it does not know yet: whether September odds cross 60% before Saturday's blackout, whether Alphabet July 22 confirms the Kimi K3 capex pressure, and whether gasoline breaks $4.15 before July 29 PCE.
Eight Fed officials positioned before the blackout with five leaning toward hiking. Moonshot's Kimi K3 sent chip stocks into a bear market. Apple took the most valuable company crown from Nvidia. Gas prices are persisting above pre-war levels despite oil moves.
A ninth voting member speaking before Saturday, gasoline above $4.15, and a hyperscaler capex cut tied to Chinese AI competition are the three signals that define whether the July 28 vote is a live hike, whether the energy transmission reaches the Fed before PCE, and whether the chip selloff is positioning or something structurally larger.
