Core Prices Hit Waller's Line | GFL Will Stay Public | Mercor's Value Doubled

0.3%.

That is how much core consumer prices rose in October. It was the third month in a row at that pace, and forecasters expected 0.2%. Overall prices rose 0.4%, against a 0.3% forecast. Hours before the report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a core reading of about 0.3% or more means a half-point hike should be considered. The Treasury then sold $42 billion of new 10-year notes at 5.02%. A buyer who holds the new note to maturity earns about 5% a year. Anyone with a floating-rate loan now faces the chance of a bigger hike.

The data met one governor's bar. The committee decides Dec. 9.

• Stocks gave back part of Monday's rally. The S&P 500 fell about 0.4% and the Nasdaq about 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.1 percentage point, to 4.98%.
• Nvidia (NVDA) fell about 5.5%, after a 4.3% drop on Monday. Chief executive Jensen Huang's reply to House committee chairs is due Wednesday.
• Producer prices land Friday. The bond market closes Wednesday for Veterans Day, and stocks will trade.
• Take-Two (TTWO) rose about 8%. It says preorders for Grand Theft Auto VI are running far above its initial expectations. CoreWeave (CRWV) reported after the close. Revenue of $3.66 billion topped its own forecast, and it raised its full-year outlook.

GFL Said No to Private Equity and Will Stay Public. Its Shares Closed Almost $10 Below the Reported Bid.

GFL Environmental (GFL) said Tuesday that its board will keep the waste hauler public. A special committee of independent directors ended its review of buyout proposals. It said the bids carried a premium to GFL's share price but did not reflect the full value of its own plan. GFL named no bidders and no price.

Late Monday, a report said the board had turned down $52 a share from Blackstone (BX), KKR (KKR) and Energy Capital Partners. The board wanted $58 or more, the report said. GFL closed near $42.40 on Tuesday, down nearly 8%.

Chief executive Patrick Dovigi said free cash flow per share should double over the next five years. For the first time, he said, GFL will have room for opportunistic buybacks on a recurring basis. He also said some parties still want the stakes held by GFL's financial sponsors, and that GFL will help that process as required.

The Bid Is Gone. The Sponsor Stakes Are Still in Play.

One reading: with no buyer at its price, GFL now has to make its case with cash flow and buybacks. Another: a sale of sponsor stakes could bring a large buyer in for part of GFL instead. A named buyer for those stakes, or a buyback plan with a size, would show which.

SIGNAL 1: KKR and Diamondback Are Buying Out Diamondback's Partner in a Permian Water Business. Neither Gave a Price.

Diamondback Energy (FANG) and KKR (KKR) agreed to buy Five Point Infrastructure's 70% stake in Deep Blue Midland Basin. Deep Blue handles water for oil producers in West Texas. Diamondback already owns the other 30%, so the two will own all of it. The deal is expected to close this quarter.

Diamondback says the system is critical to its operations, which need nearly 2 million barrels of water moved a day. KKR is paying mainly through its fifth global infrastructure fund. Neither side disclosed a price or how the two will split ownership.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Closing by year-end, and any filing that prices the 70% stake.

SIGNAL 2: Mercor's Value Doubled to $20 Billion in About a Year. Apollo-Affiliated Funds and StepStone Joined the Round.

Mercor pays experts to train and test AI models. Its $750 million round, which included an employee share sale, values it at $20 billion. After its October 2025 raise, it was valued at about $10 billion, a report said. Backers include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), funds managed by affiliates of Apollo (APO), and StepStone (STEP).

Co-chief executive Brendan Foody said Mercor's revenue is running at $3 billion a year. That values Mercor at under seven times its run-rate revenue, by PMD's math. Mercor did not say whether $20 billion includes the new cash.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Audited revenue, or the price of Mercor's next round, would test the $20 billion.

SIGNAL 3: Kalshi's Quarter-Point Hike Contract Whipsawed on the Hot Print. It Dropped as Half-Point Odds Rose.

Kalshi's contract that pays if the Fed raises rates by a quarter point in December traded at 91 cents seconds after the report. Less than a minute later, it was at 80 cents. Late Tuesday, it traded at 86 cents, just under where it traded before the report.

The contract pays only on a quarter-point move. So rising odds of a half point can pull it down, even as a December hike looks more likely. After the report, futures put the odds of a half-point hike as high as about 15%. Before the report, those odds were near zero.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Friday's producer prices and the Fed's Nov. 18 minutes.

• Bitcoin fell to about $72,700, its lowest level since late August, and was near $73,800 when U.S. stocks closed. U.S. bitcoin funds are on track for their first year of net outflows.
• Funds managed by Blackstone (BX) agreed to put 50 billion rupees into IIFL Finance, an Indian lender. They get preferred shares that convert within 18 months into about 15.6% of the company, fully diluted. Holders vote Dec. 4.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Private money bought pieces on Tuesday. It would not pay a board's price for a whole company.

At GFL Environmental (GFL), three sponsors stopped short of the board's ask, the report said. Its stock fell nearly 8% on Tuesday. The same day, KKR (KKR) agreed to buy into a water business alongside the oil producer that relies on it. Blackstone (BX) funds agreed to take a minority stake in an Indian lender. Funds affiliated with Apollo (APO) joined a minority round in Mercor. One reading: with a bigger hike now in play, buyers prefer stakes and partners to whole companies funded with floating-rate debt. Another: GFL's gap was about price, not rates.

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