Fed Family Fight | BofA Sees 3 Hikes | Ceasefire Over

Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over today. At NATO. In Ankara. Oil jumped and the Dow fell nearly 600 points.

The Fed minutes landed too. The committee is split and nobody is pretending otherwise.

Two quieter stories are reshaping how AI infrastructure gets built and who ends up owning it. 

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Warsh called his first meeting a "good family fight." The minutes confirmed it. "Many" officials wanted rates to stay flat or go lower. "Many others" wanted them higher. A few thought June itself could be the right moment to hike.

The committee voted unanimously to hold. Unanimous votes and unified views are different things.

The minutes were shorter than usual. The easing bias is gone. The post-meeting statement now simply says the committee will deliver price stability. That is three words of policy guidance where there used to be paragraphs.

Then Trump spoke. The ceasefire is over. More strikes are coming tonight. WTI jumped. Treasury yields hit their highest since May. July hike probability moved to 36%.

Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said Monday that the Fed almost never makes just one move. "Usually it means a tightening cycle." That framing sits directly on top of a dot plot already leaning to one hike with the war back on.

Bank of America now sees three hikes this year. The IMF said Iran will scar US inflation through 2027. Neither of those forecasts were written before today.

Any public statement from Warsh engaging the ceasefire collapse changes the framework before the decision arrives. Payrolls land Thursday. That is the next live input.

Former Goldman Sachs executive who traded through Black Monday warns this plan is all written down in black and white, spearheaded by a financial insider who infiltrated the Federal Reserve... It's gone "viral" in the hedge fund circles… and yet practically nobody on Main Street understands this financial shock playing out across America. He lays out all the evidence... plus a detailed roadmap for exactly what to do. (And it doesn't require shorting... options... or perfectly "timing the market.") 

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OpenAI will publicly release its GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna models Thursday. The rollout was held for roughly two weeks at the government's request. Anthropic went through the same thing last month with Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

Two weeks is now the documented precedent. Both AI lab IPO filings must address it. If a model gets held before launch, what does that mean for revenue built on day-one adoption? That question needs an answer somewhere in the prospectus.

Any future restriction lasting longer than two weeks changes the precedent and forces both labs to revisit the assumption in their filings.

UBS analyst Tim Arcuri projects SpaceX will spend roughly $1.1 trillion on AI capital over five years. About $135 billion goes toward chip-making equipment for Terafab, where Musk plans to manufacture chips for SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA).

That $135 billion is roughly the current size of the entire global chip equipment market. SpaceX has already placed $5 billion in pilot-line orders. Arcuri expects that to hit $10 billion in 2028 and potentially $50 billion a year by 2030. Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA (KLAC), and Teradyne (TER) are the named beneficiaries.

Any of those suppliers disclosing a SpaceX order above $1 billion before Q3 earnings converts this from a projection to a real supply chain commitment.

Blue Owl (OWL) launched Kirkwood Infrastructure Group to develop, own, and operate fiber networks for AI data centers. Kirkwood already has roughly 400 miles of network and 40 data centers. It is expanding across the Southeast with broader growth planned.

This is a meaningful shift. Blue Owl is not just financing fiber infrastructure. It is becoming the fiber company. Private capital is moving from owning data center assets to running the infrastructure that connects them.

Apollo (APO), KKR (KKR), or Ares (ARES) launching something similar before Q3 earnings confirms this is a category-wide move, not one firm's experiment.

The AI trade that made the Mag 7 soar is starting to crack.

Overpriced giants like Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon are facing slowing returns — just as smaller, lesser-known names are positioning to take market share.

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Warsh's first public statement after the ceasefire collapse sets the July 28 framework before payrolls Thursday. A government restriction lasting beyond two weeks changes the AI release precedent both labs must disclose. A wafer-fab supplier disclosing a SpaceX order above $1 billion converts UBS guidance into documented procurement. A second private capital firm becoming a data center operator confirms the Blue Owl model is spreading.

The Fed confirmed a family fight and the ceasefire is over the same day. Bank of America now sees three hikes this year. The IMF said Iran will scar US inflation through 2027. OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 Thursday after the two-week government window. And UBS sees SpaceX Terafab at $135 billion in chip equipment over five years. Each anchor has a test before July 28. A Warsh public statement on the ceasefire collapse tests whether the dot plot shifts to the BofA three-hike framework. Brent holding above $78 tests whether the surplus view reverses fully. A model release limit beyond two weeks tests whether the OpenAI-Anthropic precedent holds. A wafer-fab supplier SpaceX disclosure tests whether Terafab converts from projection to procurement.

The Fed is split. The ceasefire is gone. Bank of America sees three hikes. The IMF says 2027 before inflation normalizes. OpenAI releases Thursday. SpaceX is building chip capacity at TSMC scale. Blue Owl became a fiber company.

Warsh's next statement, payrolls Thursday, and any wafer-fab supplier disclosing a SpaceX order are the three signals that tell you whether July 28 is a live hike, a hawkish hold, or something the war just made impossible to predict.