Five Questions Test Last Week's Framework.

Last week named six conditions. Warsh said nothing while nine officials moved toward hikes. The Iran deal landed but ships sat quiet. SpaceX (SPCX) used inflated stock to acquire Cursor. OpenAI's burn rate arrived before its prospectus. Private credit exits accelerated 56% in Q2. And Apple (AAPL) told consumers prices are going up because AI took the memory supply.

This week those conditions meet actual data. PCE lands Thursday alongside the third estimate of Q1 GDP. Micron Technology (MU) reports Wednesday. KB Home (KBH), Carnival (CCL), and FedEx (FDX) all report Tuesday. The EIA crude and gasoline inventory report drops Wednesday morning.

Here are the five questions that drive the week.

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The May PCE Price Index lands Thursday morning. The third estimate of Q1 GDP arrives the same day. The committee that just signaled nine hikes will read them together.

PCE weights energy differently than CPI, so the headline figure may print cooler than the CPI annual rate of 4.2%. But core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The committee removed the easing bias and submitted nine hike projections under the existing inflation framework. This print confirms or revises that framework.

Q1 GDP's second estimate showed 1.6% growth, revised down from 2.0% in the advance estimate. Final sales to private domestic purchasers slowed to 1.9% from 2.5% in the second estimate. That measure is the Fed's preferred read on underlying demand. Together they show whether inflation is arriving alongside stronger or weaker growth.

What to Watch

Read core PCE first, then the final sales figure. Core PCE above 3% alongside a downward GDP revision confirms the worst combination for the committee. Inflation persistent, demand softening. The nine-hike projection sits directly on top of that combination.

Micron reports Wednesday after the close. The company guides for approximately $33.5 billion in Q3 revenue and an 81% gross margin. That margin was 39% just a year ago. Wall Street expects $33.8 billion in revenue.

Tim Cook called the memory crunch a hundred-year flood last week. Micron's gross margin and pricing detail are the supplier-side confirmation of that flood. The company has said high-bandwidth memory capacity is sold out through 2026. If Micron guides Q4 revenue above $40 billion alongside an 81% gross margin, the supplier confirms what the buyer named.

What to Watch

Read Micron's Q4 revenue guidance against the $39.6 billion analyst consensus. Guidance above $40 billion alongside flat or rising gross margins confirms the memory supply crunch is structural rather than cyclical. That landing the same week as the PCE Price Index forces a connection between AI capex and CPI that the Fed has not yet acknowledged on the record.

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KB Home reports Tuesday after the close. The company guided Q2 housing revenues of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion and gross margin of 15% to 15.6%. Management cut full-year guidance in Q1, citing affordability concerns and geopolitical tensions.

New Home Sales data arrives Wednesday morning. KB Home builds at the affordability layer. Its margins and order count tell you whether the construction pipeline has frozen further or stabilized.

What to Watch

Read KB Home's net orders against the year-ago period. Orders down more than 10% confirm the affordability freeze deepened during the spring selling season. The same day as new home sales data, that combination tells you whether builders or buyers moved first.

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FedEx reports Tuesday after the close. Wall Street expects Q4 EPS of approximately $5.91 against $5.92 in management's prior guidance. The company spun off FedEx Freight on June 1.

FedEx remains one of the cleanest reads on US goods flow. Combined with Friday's Goods Trade Balance data, it provides an early look at whether the Q1 slowdown extended into spring.

Carnival reports Tuesday before the open. Wall Street expects Q2 EPS of approximately $0.34. The company has nearly 85% of 2026 capacity already booked. Customer deposits hit a Q1 record near $8 billion. Cruise demand is booked in advance, but onboard spending reflects current conditions.

Together, FedEx and Carnival bracket the consumer spectrum. Goods flow and discretionary services. If FedEx volumes softened and Carnival's onboard spending flattened during Q2, that confirms the consumer squeeze reached the spending layer before summer.

What to Watch

Read FedEx US domestic package volumes against Carnival's onboard spending growth. Both softening confirms a broad consumer slowdown. A split signal, with goods flow holding and discretionary spending softening, points to energy costs squeezing the marginal dollar.

The EIA crude oil and gasoline stocks report lands Wednesday. PMD named July as the month when SPR releases drop sharply and Hormuz normalization remains incomplete. The deal was signed last Wednesday in Switzerland. By Thursday morning, Hormuz traffic was still near zero verified transits.

Six verified transits were recorded on June 17 against more than 100 per day before the war. The IEA said meaningful supply normalization arrives in September. OPEC's secretary general dismissed that forecast. The EIA data Wednesday is the first US inventory read after the deal was signed.

What to Watch

Read gasoline inventories against the five-year seasonal average. A reading more than 8% below average confirms the supply recovery has not reached retail before summer demand peaks. That keeps the $5 per gallon scenario alive entering July when SPR releases drop sharply.

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Six conditions named last week. Five questions answered this week.

PCE and GDP Thursday tell you whether inflation is arriving alongside stronger or weaker growth. Micron Wednesday tells you whether the memory crunch Apple named has supplier-side confirmation. KB Home Tuesday and new home sales Wednesday tell you whether the housing freeze deepened. FedEx and Carnival Tuesday together tell you whether consumer demand held across goods and discretionary services. The EIA report Wednesday tells you whether energy supply has begun to normalize.

Other reports this week include Paychex (PAYX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and TD SYNNEX (SNX) earnings. ADP's weekly employment change reads labor market momentum. The S&P Global Composite PMI Tuesday reads activity. Initial jobless claims Thursday read the labor side of the dual mandate. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday closes the week with the consumer's own read.

The sequence is straightforward: housing and earnings Tuesday, inventories and Micron Wednesday, PCE and GDP Thursday, trade and sentiment Friday.

By Friday's close, the conditions last week confirmed will have their first quantitative test.