Gas Is $4.29 Eight Days Before the Vote | Exxon and Chevron Closed at 52-Week Highs | A Brazil ETF Sank Premarket | Bitcoin Dipped Under $80,000

$4.29.

That is what a gallon of regular gas cost on Monday, by AAA's count. A year ago, it was about $3.05. Diesel was about $6.35. That is a bit below its record, set in September. AAA says gas is on pace for its most costly October on record. Gas made up more than half of September's rise in consumer prices. After inflation, hourly pay fell 0.5% that month.

Eight days before the Nov. 3 vote, gas costs about $1.23 more a gallon than a year ago.

• By about 7 a.m., Brent traded near $115, down more than 1%. S&P 500 and Dow futures were a bit higher.
• At 1 p.m., the Treasury sells $69 billion of two-year notes. Sunday's PMD said weak bids "would suggest last week's rally ran ahead of demand."
• The Fed decides Wednesday. Polymarket priced a hold at 94.5 cents early Monday. September's PCE prices come Thursday.
• Verizon (VZ) reported before the open. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday into a Nasdaq at its lowest close since August.

Oil Eased on Monday. Gas Still Costs About 40% More Than a Year Ago, With the Midterms Eight Days Out.

Brent fell about 2% in early trading Monday. Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials were in Tehran for talks. Iran's foreign minister said the strait would not "be managed as it was in the past." Houthi forces claimed a strike on Riyadh's airport. No claim of damage has been confirmed. No single event explains the drop. On Friday, Brent had settled at its highest since April.

The pump has not tracked the barrel. Over the past month, Brent rose about 10%, while AAA's gas average fell about 20 cents. AAA credits the recent dip to the switch to winter-blend fuel. It also says high crude is keeping pump prices from falling far.

Households see it in more than the pump. In September, the gas index rose 9.1%. It stood 34% above a year earlier. Thursday's PCE inflation rate is the next read. A Cleveland Fed model puts it near 3.6% for September, up from 3.4% in August.

Polymarket's ladder prices low odds of a strike this week and higher odds into November. Its ceasefire bets imply about a 6.5% chance of a qualifying U.S. strike by Oct. 28. By Nov. 15, it is about 50%. The bets count only strikes that hit Iranian land. Those odds spiked briefly on Sunday evening and mostly reversed within hours. The shape held.

A Lower Barrel Would Need to Last to Reach the Pump

AAA says high crude is the brake on lower pump prices. If Brent holds below Friday's high, the winter-blend switch could keep working. Whether that lasts depends on crude.

SIGNAL 1: Exxon and Chevron Closed at 52-Week Highs. Galp's Refining Margin Tripled. Its Shares Fell 9%.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil each rose nearly 3% on Friday. Both closed at 52-week highs, and so did the big energy-sector ETF. Both report Friday.

On Monday, Galp raised this year's core profit outlook by about a quarter. Its refining margin more than tripled from a year earlier. Talks to merge its refining arm with Moeve ended the same morning. Mubadala and Carlyle own Moeve. Reported profit fell 24%. Paper losses on derivatives were the main drag. Its stock fell about 9% in Lisbon. Several items landed at once.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Shell and TotalEnergies report Thursday. Exxon, Chevron and BP follow Friday. Their results should show how much of the fuel price reached refining profits.

SIGNAL 2: Lula Won After Traders Had Bolsonaro at 82 Cents. A Brazil ETF Was Down About 25% Premarket.

On Sunday afternoon, a Polymarket bet that Flávio Bolsonaro would win traded above 81 cents. Kalshi's version traded at 82. By 11 p.m., the Polymarket bet was near zero. At 8:08 p.m. ET, Brazil's top election court named President Lula the winner. He took almost 52% of valid votes. Final polls had shown a race too close to call.

Friday's PMD said Brazilian stocks would react first, on Monday. By about 7 a.m., a U.S. fund of Brazilian stocks (EWZ) was down about 25%. Petrobras's U.S. shares were down more than 20%. Kalshi settled its contract at zero at 9:09 p.m. ET, and Polymarket followed at 11:17 p.m. Bolsonaro says he will ask to annul the vote.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A formal challenge, and the court's reply, would come next. Regular U.S. trading in the ETF starts at 9:30 a.m.

SIGNAL 3: Bitcoin Dipped Under $80,000, Below an Estimate of ETF Buyers' Cost.

One day of fund outflows became two. U.S. spot bitcoin funds had net outflows of $138 million on Friday, on early figures. That followed net outflows of $636 million on Thursday. Bitcoin then dipped below $80,000 again in Asian trading. It was back near $80,100 by about 7 a.m. Coinbase's research team has estimated what ETF buyers paid on average. It is about $81,300.

The week still ended with net inflows of about $301 million, on early figures. BlackRock's fund took in more than the whole group, so the rest had net outflows.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Monday's flows come first, then the Fed. Coinbase and Strategy report Thursday, the day after it.

• A health system is in late talks to buy control of Surgery Partners at about $20 a share, the Financial Times reported. Bain owns almost 40% and would keep its stake, the report said. Last year, Bain offered $25.75.
• SK Hynix shelved a listing for its Solidigm storage unit, citing market swings. The money was meant for a new U.S. factory. SK Hynix says it still needs one.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

The barrel moves in hours. The bills come later.

Brent fell about 2% early Monday. Pump prices run on a slower clock, and AAA says high crude is keeping them from falling far. Refiners sit in between. Galp's margin more than tripled, and Exxon and Chevron report Friday. Private owners are taking their time, too. Bain would roll its stake rather than sell, the FT reported. Galp and Moeve ended their merger talks. One reading: until crude settles, households, refiners and dealmakers may all price off a moving barrel.

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