Inflation Bets Fell With Oil. Kalshi's Hike Bet Held | Qualcomm Guided Profit Below Forecasts | Kraft Heinz Is Selling Its Coffee, Keeping 30%

About 2.1%.

That is where one-year inflation swaps fell, from 2.7% at the end of last week. Traders use them to bet on inflation over the next year. They fell with oil. On Wednesday, Brent settled at its lowest since Aug. 31, down 8.7% on the day. Shortly after 6 a.m., it had bounced to about $96. Even so, Kalshi's December rate hike contract held at 80 cents overnight.

Inflation bets fell with oil. The bet on a December hike held.

• Central banks still lean toward higher rates. Norway's central bank held its rate Thursday and said it is prepared to raise it if needed. Markets expect the Bank of England to hike at 7 a.m. Eastern.
• Bitcoin funds took in about $75 million on Wednesday, according to data compiled by Farside Investors and SoSoValue. BlackRock's fund lost $201 million. Fidelity's took in $237 million. Bitcoin was near $80,000 early Thursday.
• Jobless claims land at 8:30. At 8:50, the Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack speaks. She voted for a hike in October. October payrolls come Friday, and economists expect about 65,000 new jobs.

Qualcomm Guided Sales Above Forecasts and Profit Below. Its Stock Fell About 10% Overnight.

Qualcomm (QCOM) expects about $10.8 billion of revenue this quarter, at the midpoint. That tops analysts' estimates of about $10.5 billion to $10.6 billion. Its adjusted profit range has a midpoint of $2.25 a share. Analysts' estimates ran from $2.27 to $2.32. Early Thursday, the stock was about 10% lower. That erased Wednesday's 5% gain, which came before the report.

The company said input costs are rising across the industry, from wafers to memory. It is raising its own prices. It expects the full benefit only in the second half of fiscal 2027. Car-chip revenue rose 89% to a record $1.99 billion.

AppLovin (APP) went the other way. Its revenue rose 55%, and its outlook beat forecasts. Its stock was about 16% higher overnight.

Asia split too. Seoul's Kospi fell 5.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 3.7%. Shortly after 6 a.m., Nasdaq-100 futures were about 0.5% lower. Dow futures were about 0.5% higher.

Qualcomm's Sales Beat. Its Costs Decide the Margin.

One reading: chips for cars and data centers are growing fast enough to carry Qualcomm. Another: when sales beat and profit misses, each chip costs more to make. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 3% while the chip index fell 3.1%. For Qualcomm, the open and its comments on how long costs stay high are the next tests.

SIGNAL 1: EnCap's Group Is Exploring a Sale of an Oil Producer for More Than $4 Billion, a Report Says.

The EnCap-led owners of Enduring Resources IV are working on a possible sale, a report said. It cited people familiar with the matter. The report said a sale could value the San Juan Basin producer at more than $4 billion, counting debt. The process would start early next year. It could be sold whole or in pieces. EnCap declined to comment.

EnCap first backed it in 2017. The sale would test buyers' appetite for oil assets after a week of falling crude. A start next year would leave time to see where oil settles.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The formal launch, and whether bidders want the whole company or parts. Where oil trades by then.

SIGNAL 2: Kraft Heinz Is Selling Its Coffee Brands to One Rock for $650 Million. It Will Keep 30%.

Kraft Heinz agreed to sell its North American coffee business. The buyer is a unit of One Rock Capital Partners. The deal values it at $650 million, counting debt. The brands include Maxwell House and Gevalia. Kraft Heinz will keep a 30% stake. It expects about $500 million in cash after tax, to pay down debt. The deal is expected to close in the middle of next year.

A seller that keeps a stake lowers the equity a buyer must put up. It also shares any gain if the business improves. One Rock's financing was not disclosed.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Any word on how One Rock pays. The deal still needs approval from regulators.

SIGNAL 3: A Spectrum-Oaktree Venture Proposed $37 a Share for Helen of Troy. The Board Said No. The Stock Closed Just Above It.

Empower Brands is owned by Spectrum Brands and Oaktree funds. On Wednesday, it made public a $37-a-share cash proposal for Helen of Troy. The proposal is not binding. It values Helen of Troy at about $1.6 billion, counting debt. Empower already owns about 4.5% of the company. Helen of Troy's board unanimously rejected the proposal.

The stock closed Wednesday just above $37, up about 25%. Buyers are paying about the full bid for a company whose board has said no. One reading: investors expect a higher bid. Another: the proposal is not binding, and the shares could fall back if Empower walks.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A revised proposal from Empower, or any word on price from either side.

• Isomorphic Labs, Alphabet's drug-discovery company, is in talks to raise about $5 billion at a valuation of about $50 billion, a report said. It has no drug in human trials yet.
• Wednesday morning, PMD noted a suit to stop stock perpetual futures. A group backed by Cboe and Citadel Securities filed it. A judge let the contracts keep trading. In an early finding, she said the group will likely win its claim that the CFTC lacked the power to approve them. The CFTC must respond by Friday.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Public prices moved in days. Private deals keep their own clocks.

Brent hit its lowest settle since August, and Qualcomm lost a tenth overnight on one outlook. Private deals run slower. The Enduring sale would not start until next year, a report said. Kraft Heinz's sale is set to close next year, and it will keep 30%. Isomorphic's reported price comes before any trial. One reading: time and a kept stake spare sellers from pricing a bad week. Another: a later price can just as well be lower.

On the calendar...