FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO SEE WHAT BREAKS BEFORE IT BREAKS
Dimon committed $10 billion of JPMorgan's balance sheet to direct equity stakes in national security and critical industries, with $1.5 trillion in deals targeted through 2035. Comcast's split already has Netflix and Amazon named as potential NBCU buyers. Honeywell Aerospace spun off targeting 2x-to-4x production acceleration. And the semiconductor-Mag 7 correlation hit its lowest level since 2021.
PMD SIGNAL TRACKER
THE NUMBER
10
THE SETUP
The Wall Street Journal reports JPMorgan has put $2 billion of its $10 billion fund to work. $150 billion is financed under the $1.5 trillion frame.
Wolfe Research says one or both Comcast units will merge. Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) are named. Charter (CHTR) rose 25% intraday.
Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) spun off from Honeywell Technologies (HON) Monday. CEO Jim Currier named a deal with the Department of War, RTX (RTX), and Lockheed Martin (LMT). Target: 2x-to-4x output.
The SOX-Mag 7 correlation hit its lowest level since late 2021.
PMD LENS
PMD tracked sixteen walls last week closing the AI IPO buyer pool. The JPMorgan merchant bank revival names a seventeenth. The Supreme Court preserved Fed independence and gave the White House removal power at every other agency. The largest US bank now buys equity in the same firms the government has taken stakes in. The bifurcation that ran through memory, sovereign reserves, and regulatory independence now reaches bank capital itself.
PREMIER FEATURE
There's a Strategy Behind the Iran War.
I know because I've seen the evidence firsthand.
On March 2nd — three days after the first missiles hit — I sat across from two U.S. Congressmen in back-to-back private meetings.
Those meetings pointed me toward something I spent weeks verifying.
The real purpose behind the strikes. The real objective. And the single company at the dead center of all of it.
This isn't random. It's a calculated Two-Front Economic War.
And there's one company positioned right at the heart of it.
The sooner you understand what's really happening — the better positioned you'll be before August 12th.
— Dylan Jovine, Founder, Behind the Markets
WHAT MOST WILL MISS
JPM and Goldman put $1 billion behind MP Materials (MP) last July. The Pentagon took 15%. Dimon told his bankers to find more like it.
Combs was a Buffett successor candidate before Greg Abel got the job. He does not want the JPM top seat. The Petno-Rohrbaugh path stays separate.
NBCU has two clocks. Comcast keeps up to 19.9% for a year. Section 355 gates any sale for two years post-spin.
Honeywell Aerospace is 40% defense. NATO buyers anchor the demand.
Carlisle bid for Owens Corning Monday. Best day since 2009.
IN FOCUS
The Deployment
The bank has put $2 billion of the $10 billion fund to work. $75 million went into Perpetua Resources for gold and antimony. More went into Databricks and a San Diego drone maker. Combs runs the fund. Dimon wants $20 billion. The Strategic Investment Group is fully running eight months in.
The Public-Private Architecture
JPM advised L3Harris (LHX) on the Pentagon's $1 billion missile stake in April. JPM also backed MP Materials' 10X plant next to the Pentagon's 15%. Dimon wished his bankers had bought in too.
The Bezos Connection
JPM joined Bezos's Prometheus Series B in June. Bezos sits on the SRI advisory council.
The Prospectus Disclosure Consequence
JPM is a lead underwriter on both AI lab IPOs alongside Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. It also buys $10 billion of equity in defense and AI infrastructure. The Anthropic prospectus must address whether any SRI stake overlaps with Anthropic's supply chain.
The Merchant Bank Signal
FROM OUR PARTNERS
Middle East Conflict Lights Fuse on US Debt Bomb
America was already drowning in $38 trillion of debt, but the recent conflict in the Middle East just accelerated the timeline.
As oil spikes, a 100-year-old stock market signal that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2020 crashes is flashing a massive "Sell" on dozens of popular U.S. equities.
If you hold the wrong stocks when this debt crisis hits, it could wipe out years of gains.
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SIGNALS IN MOTION
The signals below are not forecasts. They are mechanisms already in motion. Each one reveals the same pattern: duration is being financed before economics are fully proven.
SIGNAL 1: Netflix and Amazon Already Named as NBCU Buyers
Wall Street started speculating within 24 hours. Wolfe Research wrote that one or both Comcast units would merge with peers. Netflix lost the Warner Bros. Discovery bid. Amazon spends heavily on Prime Video. Both are named. Charter rose 25% intraday on its own merger talk. Brian Roberts told investors "Absolutely not" on deals.
The Two-Year Tax-Free Signal
Section 355 gates any NBCU sale for two years post-spin. Watch for any preliminary talk before that clock runs out. Such talk turns the tax-free structure tax-positive. It reprices the deal.
SIGNAL 2: Honeywell Aerospace Spun Off Defense-First
Honeywell Aerospace began trading Monday. Currier said 40% of the business is defense. 30% of that is international. NATO buyers anchor the demand. The deal with the Department of War, RTX, and Lockheed Martin targets 2x-to-4x output. Dimon put $2 billion into national security the same week. The largest aerospace group spun off its defense unit as a pure-play.
The 2x-to-4x Production Signal
Watch RTX or Lockheed Martin for a 2x-to-4x target on a specific system before Q3. A documented call turns the deal into a commitment.
SIGNAL 3: The Widest Semi-vs-Mag-7 Gap Since 2021
Ned Davis Research said the SOX-Mag 7 26-week correlation hit its lowest level since late 2021. The Mag 7 is down 3.7% YTD. The SOX is up 94%. The analysts called the gap unsustainable. Both peaked late 2021. The S&P then had its worst year since 2008. Monday's rally closed part of it.
The Correlation Convergence Signal
Watch the SOX-Mag 7 correlation. A move back above 0.70 in 30 days says the Mag 7 is catching up. A reading below 0.50 confirms the 2021 warning.
PARTNER SPOTLIGHT
The REAL Reason Trump Is Invading Iran
For a moment…
Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.
Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.
Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason.
If you have even a single dollar invested in the U.S. stock market, this is going to directly impact you.
THE PLAYBOOK
Watch any second US bank putting $5 billion-plus into national security before Anthropic files.
Track NBCU for any preliminary acquirer talk before the Section 355 safe harbor clears.
Monitor RTX or Lockheed Martin for a 2x-to-4x target on a specific system before Q3 earnings.
Review the SOX-Mag 7 correlation moving back above 0.70 within 30 days.
Flag any Warsh Wednesday speech reference to bank balance-sheet equity.
CAPITAL DISCIPLINE
The merchant bank revival is not JPM-specific. It is a rules shift. The current White House has reopened the path for the largest banks to act like private equity. The bifurcation that ran through memory and sovereign reserves now reaches the buyer side itself.
Run this test before next quarter's IC. Identify any private position in defense, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, or AI tied to a government stake. Pressure-test it as a co-investment with the largest US bank, not a thematic PE bet. If your next mark needs a higher multiple than what JPM paid, you hold a bank-capital bet. Size accordingly before Q3.
THE PMD REPOSITION
JPMorgan put $2 billion into merchant banking. Netflix and Amazon were named as NBCU buyers. Honeywell Aerospace spun off targeting 2x-to-4x weapons output. The SOX-Mag 7 correlation hit its 2021 low.
Watch the second bank equity move. Watch NBCU for talks before the safe harbor clears. Watch the SOX-Mag 7 correlation through July.
Three answers: whether merchant banking is industry-wide, whether NBCU reprices early, whether 2021 is rhyming before Q3.
