Kalshi's Hike Bet Rose | Employers Added 165,000 Jobs | Axon Is Buying Skydio

165,000.

That is how many jobs employers added in October. Forecasters expected about 65,000. Revisions added 84,000 more to August and September. The jobless rate was 4.1%. Yearly pay growth was 3.1%. For borrowers and savers, a December rate hike is back in play.

Hiring beat forecasts by about 100,000. Pay growth was modest.

• The S&P 500 fell about 2.7% this week. That is roughly the week's loss in an S&P 500 index fund. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 3.4%. On Friday, the Philadelphia chip index rose about 4%. That won back less than a third of Thursday's 12% drop.
• Brent was near $98 late Friday, down more than 10% for the week.
• Bitcoin held near $75,800, little changed since Thursday night. Coinbase (COIN) touched a 52-week low.
• Next week brings October consumer prices on Tuesday and producer prices on Friday. The Treasury also sells $125 billion of notes and bonds.

Kalshi's December Hike Bet Fell to 62 Cents in Thursday's Rout. After the Jobs Report, It Was Back at 78.

Kalshi's December hike contract traded at 78 cents on Friday afternoon. A yes share pays $1 if the Fed's Dec. 9 decision is a quarter-point hike. The contract was near 80 cents on Thursday morning. It fell as low as 62 cents as stocks slid, and it was near 68 early Friday.

It jumped within seconds of the jobs data and held in the high 70s for hours. More than half an hour before the report, it had already risen to 73 cents from 65. The trade data show no cause for that move.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said Thursday that policy "will need to move to a restrictive stance." New York Fed President John Williams spoke Friday. He said it is an "appropriate time to accumulate more information." He added that wage growth is in line with the Fed's goal.

The Bet Has Made a Round Trip. Tuesday's Inflation Report Is the Next Test.

A hike would raise rates on credit cards and other floating-rate loans. Savers in money-market funds would earn a little more. One reading: hiring is picking up, and the Fed has room to move. Another: with pay growth mild, the case for a hike rests more on energy than on wages.

Oil fell more than 10% this week. Tuesday's price data come first, then the November jobs report on Dec. 4.

SIGNAL 1: Axon Is Investing About $1.2 Billion in Skydio at a $5.2 Billion Pre-Money Value. Part of the Money Buys Shares From Existing Holders.

Axon (AXON) said it will invest about $1.2 billion in drone maker Skydio. The deal values Skydio at $5.2 billion before the new money. Part of the money buys shares from existing holders. Axon's fully diluted stake will rise to 37%.

Axon did not say how the money splits between Skydio and the sellers. In April, Skydio said a round lifted its value to $4.4 billion. If the two figures are comparable, the new one is about 18% higher. For early backers, a partial sale to a strategic buyer is an exit without an IPO. Axon also cut its growth forecast for this year. It took three federal drone-defense projects out of that forecast. Its stock fell about 18%.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The final terms will show how much goes to Skydio and how much to sellers. A large share for sellers would make the deal mostly an exit for early backers. The closings run from this quarter into early next year.

SIGNAL 2: Troubled Loans at a Goldman Sachs Fund Rose to 7.3% at Cost. Brookfield Raised $25 Billion in the Quarter.

Goldman Sachs BDC said its net asset value fell 3%. Loans not paying interest rose to 7.3% of the portfolio at cost, from 5%. Its managers said the drop in asset value came mostly from a few older loans. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund said its net asset value fell 3.8%. It will cut its base fee to 0.75% from 1% in January.

By our math, Goldman's fund closed Friday about 26% below its net asset value. Morgan Stanley's fund closed about 27% below. Big managers are still raising money. Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) raised $25 billion in the quarter. Credit drew $12 billion of it.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Mid-November filings from other BDCs will show whether troubled loans rose there too. A broad rise would undercut Goldman's view that a few older loans drove its drop. KKR (KKR) reports Monday, another read on private credit.

SIGNAL 3: A Planned £1 Billion Sale of Sumer Became a Continuation Fund at About the Same Price.

Penta Capital did not sell Sumer, a UK accounting group. It moved Sumer into a new fund it still manages. The deal values Sumer at about £1 billion, counting debt. A secondaries unit of TPG (TPG) was the only lead buyer. Existing holders can take cash or stay in.

A report in May said Penta had shelved a sale near £1 billion. The new fund closed at about the price the sale was expected to fetch.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The share of holders who take cash will show how many wanted out near £1 billion. More shelved sales moving into continuation funds would show the route spreading.

• A court barred Kalshi's sports contracts on California tribal lands, its third adverse ruling this week. Each ruling is temporary, but each lets states or tribes act while the cases go on.
• Strive (ASST) bought more than 15,000 bitcoin in October. That lifted its holdings about 54%. It paid partly with money raised from preferred stock that carries a 15% dividend.
• Hims & Hers (HIMS) will sell two Eli Lilly (LLY) weight-loss drugs, Zepbound and Foundayo. Prices will match what Lilly charges directly. Hims stock rose about 8% after the deal was announced. It reports results Monday.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

The jobs report put a hike back in play. Floating-rate private loans would feel it.

Kalshi's contract now leans toward a December hike. Most direct loans float, so borrowers would pay more at their next rate reset. Lenders earn more, but weaker borrowers come under strain. Stock buyers already price the Goldman and Morgan Stanley funds below their reported values. Private owners also found exits this week that skip public prices. One reading: private marks drift toward public prices. Another: if the Fed holds, borrowers get relief and the gap narrows.

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