What Actually Drove Markets Last Week

It traded like an underwriting week.

Indexes stayed composed, volatility remained contained, and AI leadership kept the tape orderly. But the real work happened underneath prices. Permission tightened. Policy formulas moved. Mark credibility cracked. Duration began behaving like a funding risk rather than a rate input.

Capital did not retreat. It became selective.

What cleared was not growth narratives, but structures that could survive a tighter rulebook, narrower refinancing tolerance, and less discretion around valuation and governance. This was a week where the market quietly repriced what it is still willing to finance.

Below are the six themes that actually governed how markets behaved.

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Last week made one thing explicit: some businesses are no longer being valued on what they earn, but on whether they are allowed to keep doing it without interruption.

Fed leadership uncertainty turned institutional continuity into a live input. 

Autonomous vehicle scrutiny showed how quickly “approved” deployments can be paused or reshaped once public tolerance shifts. 

Ports and logistics made the same point from the other direction: assets once treated as neutral infrastructure are now managed as policy instruments.

Nothing here reduced demand. What changed was confidence around continuity. 

When operations depend on discretionary approval, political tolerance, or procedural stability, the market now prices the risk that activity slows, pauses, or gets reshaped mid-cycle rather than assuming a clean run to exit.

PMD Investor Signal

Capital is now underwriting continuity risk directly. Assets exposed to discretionary approval are seeing slower closes, heavier diligence, and tighter financing even when cash flow is intact. 

Exit timing, not terminal value, is what moves first. Expect longer hold periods, lower leverage at entry, and higher execution discounts where operating continuity cannot be contractually defended.

Medicare Advantage exposed how quickly “visible” revenue becomes conditional when the state sets the math. A modest-looking payment proposal erased value because the underlying margin framework failed. 

The market did not wait for earnings deterioration. It repriced the rulebook.

This is the broader pattern. Where pricing is administered rather than negotiated, policy now behaves like a covenant. 

When formulas move, leverage math breaks before operators can adjust cost structures.

PMD Investor Signal

Policy-linked revenue should now be underwritten as formula risk, not recurring income. The broken assumption is that favorable reimbursement mechanics persist through refinancing cycles. 

Capital terms adjust through lower leverage tolerance, tighter payer-related covenants, and higher discount rates on regulated cash flows. Mispricing will surface first in refinancing friction and sponsor behavior before operating performance visibly weakens.

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Private credit’s value proposition rests on smooth marks. 

A sudden NAV adjustment after months of stability was not just a loss event. It was a credibility event. 

Once valuation discretion is exposed, counterparties respond mechanically.

Advance rates compress. Documentation tightens. Redemption assumptions get stress-tested. The product changes before the assets do. 

This is how private credit reprices without a default cycle.

PMD Investor Signal

Valuation credibility is now directly constraining leverage capacity and liquidity terms. The failing assumption is that smooth marks protect financing access regardless of market conditions. 

Expect lower advance rates, higher collateral scrutiny, and stricter redemption mechanics where valuation discretion is high. Secondary pricing and lender behavior will reveal the repricing before reported NAVs adjust.

Dollar weakness mattered not as an FX trade, but as a duration signal. 

When foreign demand for long-dated Treasurys becomes conditional, the risk-free base that private assets finance against stops being stable even if yields look calm.

This changes refinancing math quietly. Hedging costs rise. Spreads widen in real terms. Duration becomes more expensive to carry without headline stress.

PMD Investor Signal

Duration sensitivity is now being transmitted through FX confidence rather than nominal rates. The assumption that refinancing math is anchored by stable foreign demand is weakening. 

Translate this into capital terms by underwriting wider spreads, lower leverage, and higher cash coverage for long-lived assets. Financing tolerance tightens before asset performance changes, especially in infrastructure and credit portfolios.

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AI demand held. Underwriting hardened.

Physical throughput continued to clear capital, while software faced duration compression as monetization clocks moved forward. Two structural shifts mattered most.

First, sponsorship moved inside the stack, with suppliers financing builders and guiding access. 

Second, hyperscalers moved down the stack to control costs, turning some middle layers into temporary profit pools rather than durable toll roads.

PMD Investor Signal

AI exposure now clears based on capital structure, not capability. The broken assumption is that scale alone guarantees duration. 

Capital is prioritizing sponsored growth, embedded workflows, and throughput assets while compressing leverage and exit multiples on layers exposed to internalization risk. Timing risk rises for unsponsored platforms even if demand remains strong.

Healthcare ownership rules narrowed control rights. 

Tariff pass-through lifted the inflation floor and kept financing restrictive. 

Power delivery constraints turned AI projects into timing assets dependent on energization milestones.

None of these broke demand. They tightened clearance.

When regulation, financing costs, and infrastructure limits bind simultaneously, growth stops being the gating factor. 

Execution timing replaces expansion as the risk.

PMD Investor Signal

The binding constraint is clearance under higher operating friction. The failing assumption is that ownership rights, financing costs, and infrastructure access remain neutral inputs. 

Investment now demands wider structural cushions: lower leverage, longer timelines, and explicit documentation around power, pricing, and control. 

Mispricing will appear first in delayed projects, amended credit terms, and exit slippage rather than revenue decline.

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Last week did not change market direction.

It clarified what capital will still finance.

Permission is no longer ambient. Policy behaves like a covenant. Valuation discretion constrains leverage. Duration carries FX risk. AI clears through sponsorship and power access. And operating cost pressure tightens clearance without breaking demand.

Private markets will absorb this slowly through terms, leverage, and exit timing rather than abrupt mark-to-market moves. 

The advantage now belongs to structures that clear under stricter rules, not narratives that assume them away.