Nasdaq Futures Fell More Than 2%, Then Turned Up | AMD Guided High. Its Free Cash Flow Fell 64% | Japan's State Fund May Sell JSR, a Report Says

More than 2%.

That is how far Nasdaq-100 futures fell as election results came in. News outlets called both chambers of Congress for Democrats. By about 4 a.m., stock futures had turned higher. Bonds, the dollar and gold kept their first read all night. The 10-year yield was near 4.92%, a few basis points below Tuesday's close. The dollar index fell about half a percent. Gold rose back above $4,000.

Stock futures reversed before dawn. Bonds and gold did not.

• Shortly after 6:30 a.m., S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were each about 1% higher. Kalshi's December rate hike contract rose to 78 cents from 74. Even so, Treasury yields fell overnight.
• Crypto's market rules bill now looks harder to pass. Before the vote, one brokerage said it did not expect it to pass within two years under a Democratic Congress. Separately, bitcoin dipped below $76,000 overnight and came back.
• ADP reports at 8:15 a.m., and Treasury's quarterly debt-sale plan comes at 8:30. ISM services lands at 10. Arm, Qualcomm and AppLovin report after the close.

AMD Guided Well Above Forecasts. Its Free Cash Flow Fell 64%.

AMD (AMD) expects about $17 billion of revenue this quarter, give or take 3%. Wall Street expected about $16.2 billion. Third-quarter revenue rose 45%. Data-center sales nearly doubled, to a record $8.5 billion. Early Wednesday, the stock was more than 5% higher before the open.

The cash flow statement told a different story. Free cash flow fell 64% from a year earlier. Net income nearly doubled. AMD's inventory rose about $3 billion in three months. Its long-term debt has about tripled this year.

In Tokyo, chip and AI shares fell hard overnight, then won back part of the drop. Strategists there said investors were pricing in the risk of more AI oversight.

The Demand Shows in the Guidance. The Cost Shows in the Cash.

One reading: AMD is building inventory to ship, and its forecast implies it will sell much of it. Another: profit that does not turn into cash leaves less room if a big customer waits. Oracle priced $20 billion of new stock and notes Monday night. On Tuesday, Oracle (ORCL) closed 8.8% above the $116 price of the shares it sold. Tuesday night, PMD said Oracle's stock and note sales close Wednesday. For AMD, year-end inventory and cash are the test.

SIGNAL 1: Iran Called the U.S. Reply Unconvincing. Brent Still Slipped.

Iran's security chiefs called the U.S. reply to Iran's Hormuz conditions unconvincing. Qatar, the go-between, said both sides remain committed to talks. Early Wednesday, Brent was a bit above $102, down more than 1%. U.S. crude was below $96.

Industry data showed U.S. crude stocks fell about 5.3 million barrels last week. Forecasts were for a build. Tighter supply would usually lift prices.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Tuesday night, PMD said the weekly oil data come next. At 10:30 a.m., the government's report lands. After that, watch for any reply from Iran through Qatar.

SIGNAL 2: Japan's State Fund May Sell JSR, a Report Says. The Buyer's Shares Fell.

Japan Investment Corp plans to sell JSR to Mitsui Chemicals, a report said. It cited two people familiar with the matter. The report said the price could top 1.3 trillion yen, about $8.2 billion. JSR makes materials used to make chips. JIC took it private about two years ago for about 900 billion yen. None of the three has confirmed a deal.

Mitsui Chemicals' shares fell after the report. The buyer is worth less on the market than the reported price. No one has said how it would pay. The reported price is well above what JIC paid. But JIC's return turns on debt and terms no one has shared.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Any word from the firms, the final price and how it is paid. The report said a decision could come within the month.

SIGNAL 3: H&F Is Bringing KKR and Francisco Partners Into TeamSystem. It Keeps Control and Named No Price.

Hellman & Friedman will invest again in TeamSystem and stay its majority owner. The Italian firm makes business software. Francisco Partners will lead a new minority investment, and KKR will join. Silver Lake is adding to its stake. The firms gave no price and no stake sizes. The deal is expected to close in the first half of next year.

In September, a report put TeamSystem's value at 8 to 10 billion euros. It cited people familiar with the matter. The firms have not confirmed it. Nor have they said if any cash goes to an older H&F fund.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Any word on price, and on how much is new money versus shares changing hands.

• Fal, an AI startup, said it raised $1.65 billion in two rounds. A report said the latest round valued it at $16 billion, double its value in April. Fal gave no value of its own.
• Tuesday night, PMD noted that the CFTC cleared perpetual futures on single U.S. stocks. A group backed by Cboe and Citadel Securities is now suing to stop them. It says the contracts fall under the SEC alone.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Public markets gave two answers overnight. Private prices have not given one.

Stock futures fell as results came in, then recovered before dawn. Bonds, the dollar and gold kept their first move. Private deals move more slowly. JSR's price is only reported. TeamSystem gave none. Fal's value also comes from a report. One reading: public prices can be revised within hours, while private prices change only when a deal or a mark sets them. Another: one night of trading, or one report, proves little.

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