Oil Fell | Oracle Filed Full $20 Billion Cap | Banks Tightened on PE Funds

About $771.

That is what Marvell's offer was worth per Lumentum share at Monday's close, by our estimate. The companies valued it at about $1,132 a share, using Oct. 28 prices. Each Lumentum share converts into 4.5Marvell (MRVL) shares, so the offer moves with Marvell's price.Marvell has lost nearly a third of its value since Oct. 28, when talks were reported after the close. On Monday, Marvell fell about 13% andLumentum (LITE) about 19%. Lumentum closed about 11% below the value of the shares it is due to get.

The headline price rests on a Marvell share price that is long gone.

• Wall Street's rebound faded. The S&P 500 closed down about 0.5% and the Nasdaq about 1.1%. The Dow rose about 0.4%. Chip stocks kept falling after Friday's plunge.
• A factory index rose to 55.5, above forecasts. Its production gauge hit its highest level since November 2021. Its prices gauge fell to 75.2 from 77.9.
• Apple (AAPL) andPalantir (PLTR) report after the close.AMD (AMD) reports Tuesday, Election Day.
• Shortly after the close, bitcoin traded near $76,800, down about 1.9% since Sunday evening.

Oil's Drop Deepened to More Than 7%. Bets on a December Fed Hike Barely Moved.

U.S. crude settled at $96.46 a barrel, down about 7.4% from Friday's $104.12. Before dawn, it was down about 4.5%. Brent, now on a new front-month contract, settled at $104.77.

Energy shares fell far less. The main energy stock fund closed down about 4%, about half of crude's drop. One reading is that investors expect supply risk to ease more slowly than crude traders do. Another is that producer shares usually move less than the commodity.

Iran's foreign ministry said its plan still depends on the U.S. ending its blockade. No deal has been announced.

Kalshi's contract on a December hike traded at 73 cents in early afternoon, up from 71 cents overnight. It pays $1 if the Fed raises rates by a quarter point. Futures put the odds near three in four at the time. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at about 4.89%, its lowest close since early September.

Cheaper Oil Has Not Yet Changed the Fed Bet

The hike case may now rest on more than oil, since the factory survey was strong. Or rate bets may simply lag. Factory price pressure eased, and banks reported weaker demand for business loans. Friday's jobs report and the Nov. 10 inflation report test which explanation holds.

SIGNAL 1: Banks Tightened Lending to Private Equity Funds. A Partners Group Fund Met About a Third of Exit Requests.

This morning, PMD flagged the Fed's survey of bank loan officers. It was one thing to watch after Amazon's loan facility of up to $80 billion. The survey does not mention AI.Banks tightened standards on every type of loan to nonbank lenders that the Fed asked about. That group includes private equity funds. Demand from those funds rose anyway. Banks cited weaker finances at those borrowers among their reasons.

Investors in Partners Group's flagship U.S. private equity fund asked to redeem about $2.2 billion last quarter, its filing shows. The fund accepted $728 million, its 5% limit, and prorated the rest. In the second quarter, it accepted about 83% of requests. The fund did not suspend redemptions.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The fund's next exit window closes Nov. 27. Requests in that window, disclosed in a later filing, will show whether the third quarter was a spike or the start of a queue.

SIGNAL 2: Oracle Capped New Funding at $20 Billion. Five Days Later, It Asked for All of It.

On Oct. 28,Oracle (ORCL) pledged to cap new capital raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion. It split that evenly between stock and debt. The stock rose about 11% that day. On Monday,it filed to sell $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of notes. Shares closed down about 9%, at $119.10. That is below where they stood before the pledge.

The filings keep Oracle within its cap, which excludes refinancing. They also ask for the full amount at once. Last week, Oracle's finance chief said the company needed the $20 billion for the rest of fiscal 2027. She called it the final amount for the cycle.

On Oracle's own timeline, free cash flow does not turn positive until the second half of fiscal 2028. On Monday,Alphabet (GOOGL) launched a sale of 6 billion euros of bonds. Orders reached about 17 billion euros, one report said.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Final pricing sets Oracle's share count and note coupons. Its next quarterly results show whether cash flow is tracking the plan.

SIGNAL 3: Strategy Spent About Three Times More Buying Back Preferred Stock Than Buying Bitcoin.

Strategy (MSTR) bought 811 bitcoin last week for $65.5 million.In the same week, it bought back $208.2 million of its STRC preferred stock. It raised $164 million by selling common shares and sold no preferred.

Strategy holds 849,327 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,451. With bitcoin near $76,800, the stack is worth less than 2% more than it paid. The filing does not say why it is buying back preferred. One reading is that retiring stock that trades below its issue price cuts future dividends. Another is that it is supporting the instrument it uses to raise money.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Next Monday's filing will show whether buybacks keep outpacing bitcoin purchases. MSCI's index review lands Nov. 11.

• Lenders holding the same private loans disagree on their value more often. For about 12% of companies with loans held by two or more business development companies, marks sat at least five points apart on June 30. A year earlier, the share was about 9%, Frankfurt School research found. The data do not show which lender is right.
• AE Industrial kept Blue Raven, a defense parts distributor, through a continuation fund of about $850 million led by Lexington. AE did not disclose the valuation, the equity share or how many old investors sold.
• Private residential construction spending fell 5.5% in September. The report came the same morning factories posted their best production reading in nearly five years.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Cheaper oil did not make credit easier.

Crude fell more than 7%, and the December hike bet held near 73 cents. Banks made it harder for private equity funds to borrow, even as those funds asked for more. A flagship private equity fund for wealthy investors met about a third of their exit requests. Oracle filed for the full $20 billion it had pledged as its limit through fiscal 2030, five days after setting it. Lenders may be getting choosier, with borrowers moving while the doors are open. Or one survey and one session may be too short a sample. Friday's jobs report and mid-November fund filings are the next tests.

On the calendar...