Oil Won Back More Than a Fifth of Its Drop | Oracle Priced Stock at $116 and Debt at Up to 8.65% | EVgo's Controller Proposed $2 and Won't Sell

$26.3 million.

That is what Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) bid for the assets of an Outback franchisee. Out West Restaurant Group runs 61 Outback restaurants and filed for Chapter 11. Court filings, as summed up in bankruptcy coverage, put its debts at about $320 million. Most of that is interest and fees that piled up on a private loan. As the brand's owner, Bloomin' is the obvious buyer, and it set the opening price. It is also lending up to $5.5 million to keep the doors open. Bids are due Dec. 8, so the price can still rise.

Interest that piles up on a loan can delay a default for years. It does not add to what the business is worth.

• Shortly after 6 a.m., S&P 500 futures were a bit lower. Nasdaq-100 futures were a bit higher. On Monday, the Nasdaq rose as much as 1.4%, then closed down 1.1%.
• Apple (AAPL) beat forecasts, then guided its margin lower for the holiday quarter. It mainly blamed higher memory costs. Shortly after 6 a.m., its shares were about 4% lower in thin trading.
• On Election Day, Polymarket and Kalshi both put Democratic control of the Senate near 76 cents. Kalshi's contract can settle early once media outlets agree on a result. Polls start closing at 6 p.m. Eastern.
• Apollo reports before the open. At 10 a.m., job openings and factory orders land. AMD reports after the close.

Oil Fell 7.4% on Monday. Overnight, It Recovered More Than a Fifth.

U.S. crude settled down 7.4% on Monday. Earlier, Iran's president said the country's Supreme Leader gave the government "certain authorities" for talks. Shortly after 6 a.m., front-month crude was near $98.40, up about 2%. That is more than a fifth of Monday's drop.

Monday evening, PMD noted that no deal had been announced. [M1: confirm against the sent Nov. 2 PM.] At 7:39 p.m., a report said the U.S. had struck Iran's Qeshm Island that day. U.S. officials, who were not named, called it limited and defensive. Central Command did not comment. The report also described a series of secret strikes in recent weeks. No dates or places for those have been given.

Ceasefire contracts moved far more than crude did. Within about 10 minutes, Polymarket's Nov. 8 contract fell from 57 cents to below 17 cents. Within about three hours, the venue resolved six contracts "No." Two that had already expired are now under dispute.

Energy shares fell on Monday. Exxon closed down about 4%, and Diamondback nearly 6%. Diamondback's cash flow outlook for the year used prices from before Monday's drop. Heating oil futures rose about 17 cents a gallon overnight.

Most of Monday's Drop Held Overnight

Crude is still nearly $6 below Friday's settle. One reading: the war premium keeps shrinking. Officials call the action small, and Iran says the next move is Washington's. Another: Monday's drop priced a pause that may never have happened. Tonight's election results and Wednesday's weekly oil supply data come next.

SIGNAL 1: Oracle Finished Pricing All $20 Billion Late Monday. Its Stock Went at $116, Its Debt at Up to 8.65%.

Monday evening, PMD said final pricing would set Oracle's share count and coupons. It did, hours later. [M1: confirm wording and send time. If the PM went out after about 5:30 p.m., use: "Monday evening, PMD said final pricing would set Oracle's share count. The notes had priced that afternoon; the stock priced hours later."] Oracle (ORCL) priced new shares at $116. Its first filing illustrated the sale at Friday's close of $130.67. At $116, it is selling about an eighth more shares.

It priced $10 billion of notes, with coupons from 7% to 8.65%. That adds about $777 million a year of interest, by our estimate. Shortly after 6 a.m., the stock was near $118.50 in thin trading.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Both sales close Wednesday. Today's session is the first full test of the $116 price.

SIGNAL 2: EVgo's Controller Proposed $2 a Share. It Also Said It Won't Sell to Anyone Else.

LS Power holds about 56% of EVgo (EVGO)'s vote. It proposed buying the rest for $2 a share in cash, 59% above Friday's close. The proposal is non-binding. LS Power also said it has no interest in selling its stake or in any other takeover of EVgo. The stock closed at $1.85, up about 47%. On July 1, it closed at $1.89.

With most of the vote and no plan to sell, a rival bid would need LS Power to change its mind. EVgo's board has formed a special committee to weigh the proposal. The letter does not mention a separate vote by the other holders.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The committee's advisers and its reply. Any firm deal, and whether it adds a vote of the other holders. EVgo is expected to report Nov. 9.

SIGNAL 3: Palantir's Revenue Nearly Doubled. New Contract Signings Grew 6%.

Palantir (PLTR)'s revenue nearly doubled last quarter. It raised its forecast for the year well above what analysts expected. For the first time, it made more from U.S. companies than from the U.S. government.

The value of new contracts signed grew 6% from a year earlier. Sales to U.S. companies grew 29% from the quarter before. The value left on its U.S. company contracts grew 4% in that time. Shortly after 6 a.m., the stock was about 7% lower in thin trading.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Next quarter's contract signings with U.S. companies. Fourth-quarter revenue against its new forecast.

• Igneo closed a 6 billion euro infrastructure fund at its hard cap, six months after its first close. Its target was 4 billion euros. It said demand "would have supported a much larger fund."
• On Monday, investors pulled $405 million from BlackRock's bitcoin fund. That is more than all U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost together. Without it, the group would have taken in money.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

The headline number came first. The terms came hours later.

Thin overnight trading gave a first read on crude, Oracle, Apple and Palantir. The regular session is the real test. In the Outback case, bids are due Dec. 8. EVgo's committee was only just formed. One reading: prices set on a headline get tested in private deals too, just more slowly. Another: one thin night of trading proves little.

On the calendar...