Alphabet's SpaceX mark has lost a third of its value since the day it was struck, OPEC+ added a sixth straight month of barrels, and Tokyo and Washington bought yen together on Friday.
Forty-seven point four.
The Q2 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500, blending actual results and estimates per FactSet. That is the strongest since Q2 2021, when reopenings produced 91.6%. Amazon (AMZN) alone accounted for 76% of the net dollar increase in index earnings last week.
Alphabet (GOOGL) posted a Q2 EPS jump of nearly 300%, almost all of it equity gains.
Amazon posted 242%. Its filing names Anthropic. Alphabet's names SpaceX (SPCX).
Trump cancelled a planned Iran strike Saturday. He says talks begin today. Tehran says none are underway.
OPEC+ adds barrels in September, then pauses.
Bessent wants a bigger FIMA facility. AstraZeneca (AZN) and Bristol Myers (BMY) held merger talks.
PMD LENS
Friday's letter tracked Kashkari naming a series of hikes. Saturday framed the week as paper against cash. This morning the paper gets priced. One of the two marks behind the index number trades on an exchange. It is down a third since it was struck.
AI's "All In" Moment
In the dot-com days, former Wall Street money manager Alexander Green bought Apple under $1. Netflix at $1.62. Amazon under $2. (Split adjusted.)
Now he's doing the same with AI.
And he says it's the biggest opportunity he's seen in 40 years.
Every few decades, a window opens that can change your financial life forever.
- Nvidia's one-day record fell Thursday. Microsoft (MSFT) added $450 billion, past Nvidia's (NVDA) $441 billion from last year.
- Amazon's Friday rally was its largest dollar gain ever. About $390 billion, double the record.
- Apple (AAPL) lost about $358 billion Friday on memory costs. At the intraday low it was $475 billion.
- AWS ran a 39% operating margin, $16.6 billion of income on $42.2 billion of sales.
- No foreign holder owns more Treasuries than Japan. The position was $1.14 trillion in May.
The Index Booked Two Paper Marks. One of Them Trades Every Day.
The Growth Rate
A week ago the blended Q2 growth rate was 38.0%. Amazon's print took it to 47.4%. Strip Amazon and Alphabet out and it is 28.8%. Two companies valuing their own holdings are the gap.
The Two Marks
Alphabet's EPS rose from $2.31 to $9.11. The filing credits equity securities and names a $94.1 billion SpaceX stake, not Anthropic.
Amazon's 8-K reports $53.4 billion of non-operating income, "primarily from our investments in Anthropic." After tax that is $3.79 of a $3.93 beat.
The One That Already Trades
SpaceX went public in June. Alphabet struck its mark at the June 30 close of $170.86.
SpaceX closed Friday at $108.37.
Same shares, about $59.7 billion. A $34 billion hole in twenty-one sessions, in the larger mark.
And Alphabet cannot sell into it. Eighty billion sits under lockup, the rest restricted to 2027.
The One That Does Not
Amazon's Anthropic mark has no quote. Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 on June 1 and could list by October. Nobody prices it until then.
The Cloud Answer
Wall Street has one answer for why the spending pays. Cloud. Jassy says the gear breaks even in under three years against five-year AI contracts. All three companies that marked up a stake sell cloud.
The Markup Signal
SpaceX reports Tuesday after the close. Its lockup frees 911.5 million shares Thursday. That prices Alphabet's mark this week, long before Anthropic's. A mark is an estimate, not a receipt. Get the repricing date by Friday on anything carried at its holder's number.
LEAKED:
July 24th: The Trump Finale No One Saw Coming
Trump has signed 220 Executive Orders in one year…more than almost every U.S. president in history.
Now… He’s preparing to sign what sources say will be his final one.
A White House leak suggests this won’t just erase Biden’s legacy…
It will trigger a $2 trillion initiative to radically reshape America forever.
While making fortunes for those who are prepared for what’s coming.
The details are shocking. But you can’t miss this.
SIGNAL 1: OPEC+ Added Barrels and Trump Called Off the Strike
Seven OPEC+ members add 188,000 barrels a day in September, the sixth straight increase. That finishes the 2023 cuts. Then it pauses.
Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran Saturday night. He had said the US was ready at levels not seen since World War II.
Tehran says otherwise. Its foreign ministry said Sunday no talks are underway. The Oman route it is negotiating does not mean Hormuz reopens. Brent fell as much as 7.3% anyway, near $84.
The 72-Hour Reopening
Any specific Strait of Hormuz reopening announcement in the next 72 hours confirms the framework reverse. Absence keeps the refining-margin framework through September. Transits at 90% below prewar remain the specific dial.
SIGNAL 2: The First Joint US-Japan Intervention Since 2011
Japan's finance ministry confirmed Monday that it bought yen Friday alongside the US Treasury. Tokyo had already gone in alone Thursday. BOJ data suggest that day cost close to $59 billion. Friday's joint size is undisclosed.
Hold that Thursday figure. FIMA lets a foreign central bank borrow dollars against Treasuries held at the New York Fed. The cap is $60 billion per counterparty per day. Bessent wants it raised.
The Daily Limit
Any FOMC inter-meeting call to approve FIMA upsizing in the next 30 days confirms the structural shift in Fed balance sheet policy Bessent is requesting. The $60 billion daily limit per counterparty is the current constraint.
SIGNAL 3: AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb Held Merger Talks
The FT reported Sunday that the pair would be worth near $400 billion. They have been at it for months. Neither has confirmed. Either side can walk.
Read that figure. AstraZeneca is worth $264 billion. Bristol Myers is worth $133 billion. Together, $397 billion. The headline is the two added up, no premium on top.
AstraZeneca moved its US listing to the NYSE in February.
The Premium Question
Any specific merger announcement in the next 30 days converts the framework from FT report to documented M&A action. The specific figure that would confirm is the premium above the $397 billion sum-of-parts.
Hidden in Tesla's Filing: A $12 Billion "Super Startup"
Pull up Tesla's most recent SEC filing. Page 5.
And you'll see a single line showing $12 billion in revenue from a brand-new "super startup" Elon Musk has been quietly incubating inside Tesla.
This new "super startup" has nothing to do with cars or robots or space or AI…
But it sits at the center of what Blackstone calls "a $23 trillion investment opportunity."
And on Oct 21st, Elon is expected to pull back the curtain and reveal exactly what he's building.
But Adam O'Dell already knows… and he reveals it all in this urgent video.
- Monday afternoon, Iran talks. A named reopening reverses the refining margin.
- Tuesday, SpaceX reports after the close. Thursday, 911.5 million shares unlock.
- Friday morning, July payrolls. The first live test on Kashkari's series framing.
- Before August 15, a Fed governor joining the hike camp.
- Fall, Anthropic's listing. The first outside price on Amazon's mark.
Capital Discipline
A mark is not a price. A price is what an outsider agreed to pay. Alphabet's SpaceX mark and Amazon's Anthropic mark went into the same index number. One trades daily. It is down a third since it was struck. The other has never traded. Anthropic files this fall. The public market decides then whether Amazon's mark holds. Between now and then, the S&P 500's biggest earnings growth print since 2021 sits on a valuation nobody outside Amazon has tested.
Alphabet booked a paper mark. Amazon booked a bigger one and named it. Then the market repriced Alphabet's by a third, in public. Nobody could price Amazon's.
Two tests land before Jackson Hole on August 27. SpaceX's earnings Tuesday and the unlock behind it. Whether a fourth hyperscaler marks a stake.
The open question is no longer if AI capex converts to return. It is what a mark is worth when the holder cannot sell it.
