OpenAI's Price Talks Moved Lower | The 10-Year Closed Below 5% as Oil Rose | Bitcoin Funds Swung to Selling | A Ceasefire Bet Hasn't Settled

72%.

Western Digital (WDC) expects December-quarter sales to grow as much as that from a year earlier. Its shares rose about 4% after the report. Then they fell more than 8%. On the call, the company laid out higher spending plans and rising input costs. By about 7 a.m., the shares were down nearly 3% before the bell.

Bloom Energy more than doubled its sales and raised its forecast a third time. Comfort Systems' backlog nearly doubled. Both stocks fell after hours.

A beat bought little on Thursday.

• By about 7 a.m., Brent was near $115, up about 1.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures were about flat. Bitcoin was near $81,600.
• France's private sector shrank this month, a survey showed. Moody's reviews its rating after Europe's close.
• At 9:45 a.m., a survey gives the first read on U.S. business in October.
• American Express (AXP) and SLB (SLB) scheduled results for 7 a.m., before the open.

OpenAI's Price Talks Moved Down to $1.25 Trillion. That Is Still 47% Above March.

OpenAI is close to raising as much as $30 billion, people familiar with the talks said. The price under discussion is $1.25 trillion before the new money. It had been $1.4 trillion, reports said. Coatue and backers from the UAE are leading, one report said. Commitments are expected by the end of next week, one person said. OpenAI declined to comment.

The step down is about $150 billion, or 11%. Yet the new figure is about 47% above March. Back then, OpenAI was valued at $852 billion, counting that round's money. This is still a big rise. What changed is the direction of the talks.

The talks are wrapping up during a sharp AI selloff. On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, its worst day since June. A fund of chip stocks fell about 7% by the close. Power and turbine stocks tied to data centers fell more. Neither OpenAI nor its backers have said why the figure fell.

China's most closely watched AI lab is raising at a rising price. DeepSeek's round values it at about 500 billion yuan before the new money, reports said. That is about 42% above what filings by its backers implied in June. Investors include CATL, Tencent and Geely, reports said. The round is not final.

Funds May Mark OpenAI to the Final Price

Private prices tend to trail public ones. A lower figure for the top private firm may mean the public drop is reaching private AI marks. Funds that hold OpenAI are likely to mark to the final price. A close at $1.25 trillion would still sit well above March.

SIGNAL 1: Brent Settled at Its Highest Since May. The 10-Year Closed Below 5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 4.96%, down 17 basis points. It was the first close below 5% since September. Brent rose 4% to settle at $113.17, its highest close since May.

The 1 p.m. sale that Thursday's PMD flagged drew thin demand. The Treasury sold $26 billion of five-year notes tied to inflation. Bids were the weakest for that term since April of last year, by one tally. Real yields fell about as much as regular ones. So the inflation rate bonds imply for the next five years barely moved, at about 2.41%. Heating oil futures rose again early Friday.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The 9:45 a.m. survey is a first look at growth this month. Next week, the Treasury sells $183 billion of notes around the Fed meeting.

SIGNAL 2: Bitcoin Funds Swung From $528 Million In to $636 Million Out.

U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost about $636 million on Thursday, by Farside's count. SoSoValue says that was the most since June 25. Thursday was the first full day of flows since bitcoin began to fall. They ended a three-day buying run of about $1.08 billion. October's flows turned negative, by SoSoValue's count.

Bitcoin fell about 3% from Wednesday evening through Thursday. It then held near $81,700 overnight, on its 50-day average. Glassnode estimates that fund holders paid about $81,500 on average.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Friday's flows will show whether Thursday was one day or the start of a run. Coinbase and Strategy report on Oct. 29.

SIGNAL 3: A Ceasefire Bet Passed Its Deadline and Had Not Settled by Early Friday.

Polymarket's Oct. 22 ceasefire bet reached its deadline at about 4:29 p.m. Thursday. It pays $1 if no U.S. air or missile attack hit Iranian soil by then. At 4:42 a.m. Friday, Polymarket's data showed it still open and marked "disputed." It traded near 98 cents, so traders expect a yes. Who challenged it, and why, has not been made public. A dispute is part of how these bets settle and can be routine.

The Oct. 24 bet rose 6 cents from midday Thursday, to 92.5 cents by early Friday. Most of that gain came by 3 p.m., and no single statement explains it. The Pentagon has barred its staff from betting with inside knowledge. Bets that settle on a U.S. strike are the clearest case where inside knowledge would pay.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

If the challenge goes to a vote, holders of UMA tokens decide it. The Oct. 24 bet ends Saturday.

• A judge let Getty Images borrow $85 million from a Koch affiliate for now, a report said. The full loan is up to $143 million. Thursday's PMD said the first order on case funding was due near Oct. 26. It came Thursday. The lender is a plan sponsor, not an outside bank. Creditor votes on the plan are due Nov. 30.
• Deckers (DECK) cut its sales forecast and raised its profit forecast. Tariff refunds account for all of the raise. Its executives said shoppers want discounts. They said Deckers is resisting markdowns. Its shares were down about 8% before the bell.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

The growth held up. The price on offer slipped.

Western Digital, Bloom and Comfort Systems grew faster than forecast and still fell. OpenAI's figure is 47% above March, yet it slid in talks. In both markets, the growth story held, but the price on offer for it slipped. One reading is that the cost of the AI build now weighs on price as much as sales do. If the round closes near $1.25 trillion, funds that hold OpenAI may still book a mark above March's.

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