Oracle's AI Campus Debt Traded Near 80 Cents | Microsoft Ended an Nscale Site Deal | Oil Slipped After a Weekend of Threats | Disney's Staff Offer Tops Its Character.AI Bid

80 cents.

That is about where some debt behind an AI campus in New Mexico recently traded, a report said. Last month, it was quoted at 89 to 91 cents. Oracle (ORCL) leases the site. Blue Owl (OWL) developed it. Its buildings are nearly done. They have no power.

• Before 7 a.m., Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 1%. A chip index ended last week with its eighth straight daily drop.
• China's economy grew 4.5% last quarter, faster than forecast, as trade surged. Investment fell 7.2% this year. Early Monday, France's 10-year yield rose about 8 basis points after weekend riots.
• The Fed is quiet before its Oct. 27-28 meeting. Early Monday, Kalshi's October hike contract was at 12 cents.
• Fifth Third reported before the open. Zions and Western Alliance report later today. Netflix reports Tuesday. Meta and Tesla follow Wednesday.

Debt on Oracle's New Mexico AI Campus Traded Near 80 Cents.

Microsoft Ended an Nscale Deal After Grid Power Slipped to the 2030s.

On Sunday, PMD named Blue Owl's Oct. 29 results among the next prices to watch. Traders set one sooner. Some of the debt behind Project Jupiter sold at about 80 cents, a report said. The price applies to the pieces that traded, not the whole $18 billion.

The problem is power. More than 4,000 workers are on site, and the buildings are nearly built. Work on the site's fuel-cell power system has not started. A state hearing on its air permit now begins Dec. 7. That replaces a Nov. 23 decision deadline.

Britain had the same gap. Microsoft ended its deal for an Nscale site in Essex, a report said. Grid officials told Nscale not to expect power there until the 2030s. Microsoft gave no reason. Nscale filed for a U.S. listing last month. It says the "London-wide grid issue" does not affect its other contracts.

Each delay moves risk among the parties. Blue Owl has about $3 billion of equity in Jupiter, a person familiar said. Oracle's force majeure notice last month can push back the start of full rent.

A Signed Tenant Is Not a Powered Building

Each site had a big-name tenant. Neither has power on a useful timeline. If more sites slip, lenders would likely charge for power risk as well as tenant credit. Blue Owl reports Oct. 29. Word there on how it marks Jupiter would be the first formal read.

SIGNAL 1: Brent Fell on the First Trade After a Weekend of Threats. The Russia Waiver May Now Have a Deadline.

At about 4:45 a.m., Brent was down 2%, near $107.60. At about 6:45 a.m., it was still down more than 1%. Iran's IRGC said a third tanker had hit a mine since Friday. The agency that logs ship attacks had no matching entry.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Gulf oil flows are back near 80% of pre-war. His department has not published that figure. The IEA put September Gulf exports at about three-quarters, with fuel shipments near half. Fuel is where costs reach airlines and truckers.

Officials cite a 60-day review of the Russia waiver. The order has no end date. Putin has proposed a summit with Trump and Xi, a report said. The Kremlin floated Nov. 18-19, inside that window. Trump has not agreed, a U.S. official said.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A mine strike that maritime officials confirm would test Monday's calm. A summit date would turn the waiver into a clock.

SIGNAL 2: Disney's Payroll Offer Is Three Times Its Character.AI Bid. EQT Will Pay About 20 Times EBIT for Cleanaway.

On Sunday, PMD said a rival bid would show if anyone values Character.AI above Disney's floor. Bids are due Nov. 20. Disney (DIS) will offer jobs to at least 60 Character.AI staff, reports said, citing a court filing. Most have said yes. Their pay is put at about $60 million a year. That is three times Disney's $20 million bid for a tech license and some claims. The pay goes to the staff, not to the estate's creditors.

EQT signed a deal to buy Cleanaway, an Australian waste firm. Including debt, it values Cleanaway at about A$9.3 billion. That is about 20 times its EBIT, by our estimate. The same day in Australia, FleetPartners drew four bidders. Reliance Worldwide's go-shop drew none.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A higher Character.AI bid that keeps the platform running would show value beyond its staff. For Cleanaway, an expert's value range at or below the A$3.095 cash price would back the deal as fair.

SIGNAL 3: Bitcoin Rose With Nasdaq Futures, Then Gave Some Back. Wallets a Tracker Ties to MARA Sent 1,000 Coins to Exchanges.

Bitcoin hit its weekend low at 4 p.m. Sunday. It picked up speed at 6 p.m., when stock futures reopened. Around 3 a.m., it touched just over $83,000. By 6:45, it was near $82,300. Bets against ether were forced out on the way up.

MARA Holdings (MARA) holds more bitcoin than any other U.S.-listed miner. Over five days, 1,000 bitcoin moved to two exchanges from wallets a blockchain tracker ties to it. That fits a sale, but also posting collateral or moving custody. MARA has not commented. U.S. spot bitcoin funds had about $229 million of net outflows last week.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Monday's fund flows land after the close. MARA's next holdings report should show if the coins were sold.

• Nine firms have said no to trading of their stock as tokens on OKXICE. The NYSE's parent co-owns it. At least four are AI names: Broadcom, CoreWeave, Applied Digital and Cerebras. Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft had not objected as of Oct. 15.
• Red Cat (RCAT) proposed a €39-a-share cash offer for Steyr Motors. By our estimate, that is about seven-tenths of the cash Red Cat had in June. It calls the offer fully financed but has not said how.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Scarce inputs set the price: power, fuel and people.

Jupiter's buildings are nearly done, yet some of its debt traded near 80 cents while it waits for power. Gulf crude flows are recovering, by official accounts, but fuel shipments lag. Disney's $20 million bid is a third of a year's pay for the staff it would hire. Cleanaway's landfills, hard to replace, drew a full price. If that holds, AI sites with power in hand would likely borrow on better terms than those still waiting.

On the calendar...