TikTok’s survival isn’t just a headline about social media — it’s about who owns the rails of digital life.
The U.S. isn’t just asking “who profits?” It’s asking “who controls the algorithm, where does the data live, and whose rules apply?”
That same logic is showing up across private markets. Big checks are flowing into HR platforms, labels, and credit because they’re domestic, resilient, and hard to replicate. Even in mining and robotics, capital is chasing control of what can’t be swapped out.
The thread running through it all: defensibility. Not in buzzwords, but in ownership, governance, and assets you can’t easily rebuild elsewhere.

There’s fresh progress toward saving TikTok in the U.S. After a phone call between former President Trump and China’s President Xi, both sides described the conversation as “positive” and “constructive.” The plan is to split off TikTok’s U.S. operations from its Chinese parent (ByteDance), reduce ByteDance’s ownership to below 20%, and hand controlling interest to U.S.-based investors like Oracle and Silver Lake. Also, the U.S. government appears set to insist that U.S. user data be controlled inside the country.

What remains unclear: who will actually control the algorithm that powers TikTok’s recommendation engine, how much China will retain any influence, and exactly how the licensing or control agreements will work. 

The deal is expected to take several weeks or months to finalize. (Sources very close to the negotiations warn many details are still being negotiated.)

Investor takeaway
Think of TikTok’s deal as a blueprint for future platform deals. It’s no longer enough to make a product people use, what matters more is how that product is owned, where the data lives, and under whose rules it operates. In markets where nationalism, regulation, and data governance are rising, deals that fail to build defensibility around those points will risk losing value quickly.

Stone Point and CPP Investments have taken a majority stake in OneDigital, valuing the insurance-and-HR services platform above $7 billion.
Why it matters: PE firms aren’t just chasing factories or software — they want multi-revenue platforms tied to essential services. Benefits, HR, insurance, and wealth management are sticky, domestic, and recurring.
Investor takeaway: Stability is the alpha here. Expect OneDigital to keep rolling up niche providers and widening its moat.

https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/ai-hr-software-startup-funding-ma/

HR software startups have pulled in nearly $1.9 billion this year, almost matching last year’s total. The deal count is down, but the checks are bigger. Rippling and Ashby are among the winners.
Why it matters: Investors are backing scale and integration — not one-trick apps. Payroll, compliance, and AI screening are being bundled into platforms too big to dislodge.
Investor takeaway: In a crowded SaaS market, HR tech is proving itself as a safer, regulation-anchored play.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/portrait-capital-acquires-aai-labels--decals-and-sticker-ranch-to-form-specialty-label-platform-302561156.html

Portrait Capital has stitched together AAI Labels, Decals & Sticker Ranch into a specialty labels platform. These are the labels and decals you see on packaging, medical gear, and safety products.
Why it matters: Demand is steady, regulation requires traceability, and brands pay for compliance. The market may be small on paper, but it’s doubling over the next decade.
Investor takeaway: The next margin plays aren’t always sexy. Owning the suppliers of simple but essential inputs can be just as profitable.

A new survey shows private credit managers are running out of quality borrowers. At the same time, AI and automation are speeding up how deals get underwritten.
The tension is obvious: fewer good assets, faster tools to fight over them. That means the edge goes to funds with the best discipline, not just the biggest balance sheets.

Investor takeaway: In tight credit markets, quality beats quantity. The winners will be the funds that combine speed with sharp selectivity.

The 10 biggest venture rounds this week raised $2.9 billion combined. Figure, a humanoid robot company, led the pack with $1 billion at a $39B valuation. Groq pulled in $750M, and several AI software and biotech firms also crossed nine figures.
Investor takeaway: Capital is flowing into physical AI — robots, chips, automation. These aren’t moonshots; they’re infrastructure bets. The valuations may stretch, but the signal is clear: the builders of “real” AI hardware are where smart money wants exposure.

TikTok’s pending deal is a reminder: platforms live or die on ownership, not just usage.

OneDigital and the HR wave show that platforms tied to essential domestic services attract capital when the cycle turns.

Portrait’s label play proves even humble suppliers become valuable when regulation and supply chains tighten.

Private credit managers are chasing fewer good borrowers with faster tools — discipline will decide who wins.

And $2.9B in AI/robotics raises? That’s the market saying the energy transition isn’t just digital; it’s physical.

The pattern: defensibility, not flash, is where capital is flowing. Ownership, scarcity, and resilience are setting the pace across sectors.

— The Private Markets Digest Team