Dio Pouerie

Mar 1, 2026

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12 min read

The Calendar Meets the Clock

Strait of Hormuz risk and inflation pressure move to the center. Data, earnings, and refinancing math collide with last week’s tightening mood

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 28, 2026

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12 min read

What Actually Moved Markets This Week

Six sequences that explained the tape, the term sheet, and the deal room

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 27, 2026

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11 min read

When AI And Tariffs Hit The Same Week

Leveraged loans fall to April lows, private credit faces accounting scrutiny, CoreWeave doubles down on debt-funded capacity, and OpenAI raises $110 billion into tightening credit conditions.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 27, 2026

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13 min read

Guardrails Repriced Before Growth Is

The Fed fights subpoenas in sealed court as Paramount absorbs billions in regulatory risk, Block bets its operating model on AI headcount compression, and China's export-control apparatus outpaces Washington's retreat.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Refi Clock Is Ticking & AI Fear Hit The Loan Desk

Feb 26, 2026

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11 min read

The Refi Clock Is Ticking & AI Fear Hit The Loan Desk

Software just lost $1.6T in market cap, but the private signal is the maturity wall. Permitting politics slow the power build. Real estate capital shifts to speed and replacement cost.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 26, 2026

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12 min read

Duration Reprices Before Direction Does

Tariff refund claims trade like structured credit while power access gates AI buildouts and credit markets lag equities in pricing risk, all pointing to a regime where time to cash, not asset quality, sets the discount.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 25, 2026

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9 min read

The Buyout Model Is Under Pressure

Lower leverage, slower exits and tighter liquidity are forcing sponsors to generate real growth again.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 25, 2026

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11 min read

AI Mandates Land, Exit Rails Freeze

Tech giants enforce AI adoption as workforce models shift, the software selloff freezes the IPO window on broken comps, deal volume surges on the thinnest capital base in 30 years, and semi-liquid wrappers confuse access with the liquidity they haven't earned.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 24, 2026

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10 min read

The Hidden Cost Of Rolling Up America

Roll-ups still clear, but the underwriting bar just moved higher across small business, data centers, venture liquidity, and housing exposure.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 24, 2026

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11 min read

When Loan Risk Becomes Platform Risk

Software loan weakness is migrating from individual credits into fund-level marks, payout timelines, and fundraising confidence, while tariff litigation and reshoring capex compound the pressure on leveraged portfolios.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 23, 2026

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10 min read

AI Anxiety Moves Into Debt Markets

Lenders are widening spreads and tightening covenants. Sponsors are pausing issuance. The filter is now credit, not narrative.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 23, 2026

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11 min read

Supreme Court Killed Tariffs, Now What?

The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but refund timelines, working capital strain, and a new 15% global levy mean the real trade is timing, not ideology, and private markets are pricing the lag across importers, building products, and AI capex.

Dio Pouerie, +1

The Week Ahead Will Show Who Still Feels Comfortable

Feb 22, 2026

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10 min read

The Week Ahead Will Show Who Still Feels Comfortable

After a quiet tightening, data and earnings will decide whether capital relaxes or pulls back

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 21, 2026

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12 min read

What Actually Drove Markets Last Week

Six sequences that drove price, liquidity, and tone beneath the surface

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 20, 2026

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10 min read

A Tariff Win for Retail? Not So Fast.

The Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs. GDP slows to 1.4%. Small retailers are still under pressure. Fintech firms want bank charters. The headline is trade. The theme is control.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 20, 2026

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11 min read

The Rules Around Capital Are Shifting

Housing policy is redrawing who can buy. A $20B healthcare sale tests private equity's bid. Live Nation heads to trial. AI infrastructure money keeps flowing. The common thread is simple: can capital still move cleanly?

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 19, 2026

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10 min read

Private Credit Hits a Timing Problem

Blue Owl tightens redemptions after selling loans near par. Sponsors test exits. Banks debate posture. Input costs force redesign. Access is shifting.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 19, 2026

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12 min read

When AI Hits the Loan Market

AI pressure is raising refinancing barriers for software and services borrowers. The Fed is nudging banks back into mortgages. Thrive raises $10B as power concentrates. U.S. force posture in the Middle East shifts underwriting math.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 18, 2026

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13 min read

Japan Sends $36B With Strings

Defense buyers want unrestricted use. Model limits now carry contract risk inside classified pipelines.

Dio Pouerie, +1

When Data Becomes More Valuable Than Homes

Feb 18, 2026

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12 min read

When Data Becomes More Valuable Than Homes

Data centers are outbidding housing across key corridors. Bayer moves to structure $7.25B in Roundup liability. Veritas closes $15.3B for defense. Constraint, litigation, and capital allocation are tightening the real asset map.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 17, 2026

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10 min read

Micron’s $200B Bet Changes The Stack

A systemically important insurer faces scrutiny. Memory becomes strategic. Shale matures. Power improvisation spreads. Control layers are tightening.

Dio Pouerie, +1

Feb 17, 2026

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12 min read

The Pricing Break Is Over

Companies are restarting price increases as tariffs, wages, and health insurance costs compound. Smithfield is committing $1.3B to automated capacity. Housing policy is trying to unlock factory built supply and small dollar mortgage demand. AI content marketplaces are turning licensing rights into a new cash flow layer.

Dio Pouerie, +1