Anthropic is sizing the largest IPO ever after losing almost $42 billion last year. Bessent says Treasury and the Fed would coordinate on the Fed's holdings. JPMorgan filed six layoff notices across a record first half.
Forty-two billion.
Anthropic's net loss for 2025, from documents seen by Bloomberg. That is roughly five times what it lost the year before. The same company is now sizing the largest listing ever attempted.
Anthropic is sizing a listing to match SpaceX's (SPCX) record. It may file publicly this month.
It lost almost $42 billion last year. Revenue last quarter ran above $11.5 billion. A year earlier it was $787 million.
Broadcom (AVGO) is in talks to fund the chips Anthropic and others lease. That package could reach $100 billion.
Bessent points at the Fed's balance sheet.
JPMorgan (JPM) filed notices on 774 jobs across a record half.
PMD LENS
Wednesday morning's PMD named Anthropic's revolver passing its $10 billion target. That was the pre-IPO tell. This morning the same company names a size instead. The revolver was the private financing. The filing is the public one. Between them stands a chip stack somebody else guarantees.
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- The chip debt would sit in a special-purpose vehicle, not on Broadcom's books. Broadcom would guarantee a slice. That won the last deal its investment-grade rating.
- Broadcom, Apollo and Blackstone did this once already, at $35 billion. They are back for up to three times that.
- The three of them target more than 20 gigawatts. Bloomberg calls that the output of 20 nuclear plants.
- Anthropic rents compute from SpaceX as well, worth tens of billions.
- US listings are near $161 billion this year. One deal could rewrite that.
Anthropic Expects to Match or Beat SpaceX's $86.2 Billion Record IPO Size and Could File Publicly as Soon as End of August.
Broadcom Is in Talks to Raise More Than $60 Billion in AI Chip Financing That Would Benefit Anthropic. Ramp Data Shows OpenAI Gaining on Anthropic With US Businesses.
The Record It Is Aiming At
Anthropic wants a listing the size of the biggest ever done. The filing could come as soon as month end. SpaceX raised $75 billion at the outset. Bloomberg puts the final haul at $86.2 billion.
What the Loss Year Carries
The company lost almost $42 billion in 2025. Preliminary revenue last quarter topped $11.5 billion. It booked positive adjusted operating income, and the qualifier does real work. No listed AI lab exists to measure it against.
Whose Balance Sheet Pays for the Chips
Broadcom is in talks to raise more than $60 billion for AI chips. It would guarantee part of the senior tranche. A junior piece could take the package to $100 billion. Blackstone (BX) and Apollo (APO) are at the table. The debt sits off Broadcom's books. The backstop buys the rating.
Who Is Buying
Ramp's data has OpenAI growing faster this quarter. Anthropic held nearly 44% of Ramp's paying business users in July. OpenAI held nearly 40%. In May it was 41 to 39. The lead widened as the momentum turned.
The Rented Cost Base
Scale off a run rate is what this listing sells. Public credit has started charging for the debt underneath it. Private marks have not. That distance is a franchise price resting on borrowed credit. A public filing before month end turns a reported size into a disclosed one.
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SIGNAL 1: The Second Signature
Treasury moved on the long end alone on Wednesday. On Thursday Bessent said the two would work together on the Fed's holdings.
A sustained push on yields needs the Fed. Warsh has proposed a new accord where both name their objectives together. But his own plan shrinks the Fed's holdings and shifts them short. That pushes long yields up.
The July minutes park the question with a task force.
The Direction Problem
A Treasury backstop is in the long end. Wednesday took nine basis points off the 30-year and Thursday gave some back. The Fed half is not there at all. The tape carries one signature on a two-signature defence. Should Warsh put a number on the balance sheet at Jackson Hole, the deferral ends.
SIGNAL 2: The Contract Book and the Tape
SpaceX is in line for more than $8 billion of Golden Dome work. That is at least a third of the programme's budget so far.
The launch and satellite awards are the visible half. The regulatory half is larger. The FCC approved its satellite-to-phone spectrum in May, with conditions. Now it weighs a plan for up to a million AI satellites.
The stock went the other way, falling more than 6% on Thursday. That put it at $130.66, under its $135 offer price. Musk had pushed the first Starship catch out by months.
The contracts are the news. The waivers are the asset.
The Moat and the Multiple
Investors are marking a launch schedule. They are not marking a regulatory position that outlasts any contract. What wins a contract and what keeps one are different assets. Ruling on the million-satellite application before year end would value the second.
SIGNAL 3: Cutting Into a Record
JPMorgan filed six layoff notices between February and July. They cover 774 people across Texas, New Jersey and California.
It is the bank's highest total since 2015. The second quarter was its best ever, at $21.2 billion of net income. Dimon told the July call that some areas came down 30% or 40%. Most took other jobs inside the firm.
Under 1% of staff. All of it in units Dimon says AI is reshaping.
The Composition Trade
Bank earnings carry a price. The workforce behind them does not. What sits between the two is a payroll rebuilt inside a record. Goldman puts entry-level roles thinning fastest and call-centre work far below trend. A third-quarter headcount below today's would make this structural.
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- Today, the August flash PMI. The next growth prints the long end prices.
- August 26, Nvidia reports on whether chip demand funds itself.
- August 27, Jackson Hole opens.
- Before August 31, Anthropic's public filing.
- September 9, the enlarged buyback sizes take effect.
Capital Discipline
Your AI marks come off private rounds. The category has never priced one in the open. That is not a valuation policy. It is an absence, and that absence now carries a date.
Run this before your next valuation. Take the AI-exposed position whose mark rests on a 2026 private round. Write down the revenue multiple it implies. Then write the multiple you would accept from an open order book. If the two sit close, hold the position. If the private one is higher, cut it to that number.
Monday named the hidden obligation. Tuesday flagged the break at 5.311%. Wednesday named Anthropic's revolver. Yesterday tracked the money that moved before the buyback. This morning names what the category gets marked against.
Two tests land inside ten days. Jackson Hole opens August 27. Anthropic may file inside ten days.
The open question is whether the first lab to price sets the category's multiple. Or discovers there was never one.
