Prices Land Tuesday Without the Yearly Change | Brent Fell Through Gulf Attacks | JIC Is Selling JSR for ¥1.84 Trillion

0.3%.

That is how much forecasters expect consumer prices rose in October. At 8:30 a.m. Tuesday, the report lands. It will skip the yearly change where the government lacks last October's data. That gap dates to last year's shutdown. Held for a year, 0.3% a month comes to about 3.7%. That matches September's yearly rate.

For savers and borrowers, it is the last consumer price report before the Fed decides on Dec. 9. Kalshi's December hike contract held near 77 cents through the weekend. A hike would lift card rates and other loans that float.

One month of data now has to carry the debate.

• Tokyo's Nikkei closed up more than 2%, and Taiwan's market rose nearly 5%. By about 6:15 a.m., Dow and small-cap futures were up. Nasdaq-100 futures were up slightly.
• Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation. It follows reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. Nvidia was about 5% lower before the bell.
• Bitcoin fell about $2,000 in an hour on Sunday afternoon, to its lowest since August. Early Monday it was near $74,000. That is below Strategy's average cost of about $75,500 a coin.
• KKR and Constellation Energy report before the open.

Brent Fell Through a Weekend of Gulf Attacks. Trump Called New Iran Strikes "Highly Unlikely" if a Deal Is Signed.

By about 6:25 a.m., Brent was near $95, down about 3% from late Friday. It fell more than 12% last week.

It kept falling as the Gulf showed more signs of danger. Saudi Arabia said shrapnel hit an Aramco office in Riyadh in an attempted attack. Damage was limited, and no one was hurt. The UK's maritime agency reported a tanker on fire near the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump spoke to CNN on Sunday. He said new strikes were "highly unlikely" to be needed if Iran signs "a very strong agreement." He said he would act "if necessary." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he had no progress to report.

Heating oil, a diesel benchmark, fell less than crude.

The Gulf Looked Riskier. The Price Fell Anyway.

One reading: traders now price the odds of new U.S. strikes more than the count of attacks. Another: the market is too calm while the threat level in the region stays "severe." Fuel prices that lag crude would keep some energy costs high. Thursday's weekly government oil data, a day late for Veterans Day, come next.

SIGNAL 1: Japan's State Fund Is Selling JSR to Mitsui Chemicals for ¥1.84 Trillion. The Buyer's Shares Fell as Much as 15%.

Mitsui Chemicals agreed to buy JSR, a chip-materials maker, for ¥1.84 trillion. That is about $11.6 billion. The sellers are funds run by Japan Investment Corp., which the state backs. A state lender is adding ¥200 billion. The equity value is about ¥1.4 trillion. The deal should close by March 2028.

JIC paid about ¥904 billion for JSR in 2024, its tender documents show. The equity value now is about 1.5 times that, by PMD's math. JIC has not said how much debt it used or cash it added. So its return is not known.

Mitsui will pay mostly with borrowed money. It capped new shares at ¥150 billion. Its stock fell as much as 15% in Tokyo and closed about 8.5% lower.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

How many new shares Mitsui sells, and sign-offs where JSR does business.

SIGNAL 2: Barings Has Until Tuesday to Make a Firm Offer for I-RES. No Firm Offer Has Been Made.

Barings has until noon Tuesday, New York time, to make a firm offer for I-RES, a listed Irish landlord. Barings told its board there is "no change" to a value of €1.386 a share. It said it has finished due diligence. The board is still minded to recommend a firm offer on those terms.

At that price, the equity is worth about €730 million. That price has been called close to its reported asset value per share at the end of June. A private buyer would close the gap between the share price and what the assets are worth. Early Monday, I-RES shares were about 4% below the €1.386 offer value.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A firm offer under Irish rules by Tuesday, with financing and conditions. Or a walk-away.

SIGNAL 3: Cyera Is in Talks to Raise About $800 Million at About $20 Billion, Reports Say. Its June Round Was at $12 Billion.

Cyera is in late talks to raise about $800 million at about $20 billion, reports said. It is an Israeli data-security firm. An early backer, Cyberstarts, would put in about $300 million, one report said. The round has not closed. Cyera has not confirmed the terms.

Its last confirmed value was $12 billion, in a $600 million round in June. A move to $20 billion would be a rise of about two-thirds in five months. It is not clear if $20 billion counts the new money. The biggest reported check would come from an insider, which likely knows the company best and already holds a stake.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A statement from Cyera on size and value, and who else joins the round.

• Some calendars listed Nov. 9 for Kalshi's Supreme Court response. The court moved that deadline to Dec. 7 at Kalshi's request. Nothing is due there this week.
• Blackstone is in exclusive talks to sell Nucleus Network to a group led by Boyu Capital, a report said. The Australian firm runs early drug trials. Bain Capital, the front-runner in September, pulled out. No price has been reported.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Private prices held up on Monday. The public buyer's shares fell.

Mitsui's stock fell as much as 15% after it agreed to buy JSR. JSR's equity value in the deal is about 1.5 times what JIC paid, by PMD's math. Cyera is in talks about two-thirds above June, reports said. Barings' value for I-RES tops Friday's close. One reading: private sellers can still name their price. Another: the public buyer now carries the risk, and its holders priced it first.

On the calendar...