After markets repriced governance and duration this morning, capital is reappearing selectively, flowing toward biotech with clear buyers, infrastructure builders that can finance time, and assets where permission lasts long enough for exits to clear.
MARKET STATE
This morning was about governance getting priced.
This afternoon is about what capital does next.
When markets began repricing institutional credibility, enforcement risk, and duration earlier today, the immediate assumption was that risk capital would step back.
Instead, capital reorganized. Money did not disappear. It became selective.
Across private markets, the same behavior is showing up repeatedly.
Capital is no longer asking where upside is largest. It is asking where time can still be underwritten with confidence. Where exits remain visible. Where financing paths do not rely on political neutrality or regulatory patience holding indefinitely.
This second send is about that filtration process in real time.
PREMIER FEATURE
Why 2026 Could Be Crypto’s Biggest Year
The macro setup for crypto is snapping into place.
The Fed is printing again. More rate cuts are coming. And a new, likely dovish Fed chair takes over in May. That’s three major catalysts — all pointing the same way.
Wall Street keeps saying it’s “priced in.” History says otherwise.
When liquidity rises and policy loosens, risk assets surge — and crypto tends to lead. We’ve seen this cycle before, and it’s setting up again now after crypto’s strong start to 2026.
I’ve laid out the full playbook — Fed policy, capital flows, and how to spot altcoins with the biggest upside — in a book my advisors told me not to give away.
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QUICK BRIEFS
Merck Circles a $30B Oncology Target
Strategic buyers are moving before pressure forces their hand.
Merck is in talks to acquire Revolution Medicines in a deal that could approach $30 billion, reinforcing the most important signal behind biotech’s financing reopening.
This is not opportunistic dealmaking driven by cheap assets. It is defensive allocation driven by future revenue risk.
With key patent expirations approaching, large pharmaceutical companies are pulling capital forward to secure pipelines before scarcity worsens.
In that environment, valuation discipline matters less than certainty of supply.
For private markets, this kind of activity does more than set benchmarks. It restores confidence in exits.
When strategic buyers demonstrate willingness to transact at scale, capital further up the risk stack re-engages. Issuance windows reopen. Late-stage valuations stabilize. Structured capital becomes easier to place.
Funding does not lead exits. Exits lead funding.
Investor Signal
When strategic buyers act early, exit math becomes credible again. Capital follows visibility, not optimism.
Meta Turns Financing Into an Operating Constraint
Endurance replaces innovation as the limiting factor.
Meta’s appointment of Dina Powell McCormick is not a personnel story. It is a capital story.
The company spent roughly $70 billion on AI infrastructure last year, issued $40 billion in debt across multiple offerings, and structured a $27 billion joint venture to keep incremental exposure off its balance sheet.
Meta does not operate a cloud business that monetizes capacity externally. Its AI buildout is consumed internally, meaning capital recycling is limited.
Growth now depends on managing financing pathways as much as product development.
Debt capacity, partnerships, and off–balance-sheet engineering have become core operating functions.
The constraints are no longer theoretical. Power availability, regulatory timelines, and supply chain bottlenecks already limit expansion.
Financing has joined that list. Hiring a banker reflects a recognition that capital structure is now a gating variable.
Meta increasingly resembles an infrastructure allocator rather than a traditional technology company.
The competitive advantage is not speed. It is the ability to finance time without losing strategic flexibility.
Investor Signal
At infrastructure scale, balance sheet design becomes strategy. Endurance matters more than acceleration.
Greenland Minerals Pull Capital Before Feasibility
Optionality trades well ahead of cash flow.
Tech investors are exploring critical mineral projects in Greenland as geopolitical attention intensifies around supply-chain security.
These projects face long development timelines, unresolved permitting issues, and complex processing requirements.
What is attracting capital today is not near-term production. It is relevance.
Geopolitical alignment, policy optionality, and strategic importance are pulling capital interest forward years before feasibility can be proven.
This is capital underwriting permission and positioning, not execution or yield.
That does not make the activity irrational. It makes it speculative in a specific way. Investors are buying exposure to future leverage rather than present economics.
Prices move first. Cash flow, if it arrives at all, comes much later.
The contrast with biotech is instructive. One sector is reopening because exits are legible. The other is attracting attention because relevance is rising.
Investor Signal
Narrative and policy alignment can move prices long before fundamentals validate them. Optionality clears before economics.
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DEEP DIVE
Biotech Capital Reopens—But Only Where Exit Math Works
After years of capital scarcity, biotech financing is reopening.
Public drug developers raised more than $13 billion in the fourth quarter, the strongest issuance window since 2021.
On the surface, this looks like a cyclical rebound. Underneath, it is far more selective.
Capital is not returning evenly. Early-stage science and long-duration research remain constrained.
Obesity drugs, oncology pipelines, and platform technologies with near-term data dominate issuance. These are not bets on discovery. They are bets on commercialization and acquisition.
For private markets, the reopening of public issuance matters because it restores the exit ladder that anchors valuation across the capital stack.
When IPOs and follow-on offerings reappear, crossover funds re-engage. Structured capital stabilizes. Late-stage rounds price with endpoints in view.
Without exits, capital waits. With exits, capital competes.
Investor behavior confirms the point. Generalist funds that had avoided biotech for years are reappearing, not because risk tolerance has improved, but because the cost of missing credible exits has increased.
Questions have shifted from downside protection to market size, competitive positioning, and commercialization timelines.
This is not enthusiasm returning to science. It is discipline returning to exit math.
Biotech did not reopen because conditions got easier.
It reopened because the path out became clearer.
Investor Signal
Risk capital returns from the exit backward. Late-stage assets with visible buyers will reprice first. Early science without a path remains capital constrained.
FROM OUR PARTNERS
$50 Billion Says You’ll Want These Names
Wall Street’s big money is already moving — quietly building positions in a handful of stocks before the next rally.
Our analysts tracked the flows and found 10 companies leading the charge.
Some are household names. Others are under-the-radar innovators about to break out.
Together, they form the Post-Rate-Cut Playbook smart investors are following right now.
THE PLAYBOOK
This is not a broad risk-on market.
Capital is back, but filtered.
Merck shows the bid side is real.
Meta shows financing endurance has become an operating constraint.
Greenland shows how relevance can pull capital forward ahead of feasibility.
Biotech shows what happens when exits become legible again.
Across private markets, the rule is consistent. Capital clears where time can be financed, permission can be sustained, and exits are defensible.
This is not optimism returning.
It is conditional confidence reasserting itself.
