SpaceX Agreed to Buy a Private Firm's Airwaves | Waymo Borrowed $5B | Gilts Hit a 2007 High

$2.9 billion

SpaceX would reportedly pay near $8 billion for the airwaves. Grain paid T-Mobile this much cash in August, plus its 600 MHz licenses.

Firmus withdrew its Australian IPO and will seek private capital instead. Prediction markets put more than $30 million on the Nobel Peace Prize. Navi Pillay won, and Polymarket's four favorites all paid nothing. Brent eased to about $103 early Friday.

A Private Firm Bought T-Mobile's Airwaves in August. SpaceX Agreed to Buy Them Next.

Grain Management agreed to sell its nationwide 800 MHz airwaves to SpaceX (SPCX). Grain is a private investment firm. It bought the band from T-Mobile (TMUS) in a deal that closed Aug. 11. It paid $2.9 billion in cash plus all its own 600 MHz licenses. Neither side gave the new price. People familiar put it near $8 billion in cash. The deal needs FCC approval.

SpaceX wants the band for Starlink Mobile, its phone service from space and the ground. SpaceX says most phones already work on it and that it reaches through walls.

The carriers had closed higher Thursday, then fell after hours as the deal was announced. At 6:45 a.m., AT&T traded about 7% lower and Verizon and T-Mobile about 6% lower. At those prices, the three had lost about $35 billion of value. That is more than four times the reported price. Without a network, "it's just empty airwaves," a Verizon spokesman said.

If the reported price holds, Grain would get about 2.8 times the cash it paid two months ago. The real markup is smaller, since Grain also gave up its 600 MHz licenses. Their value was not disclosed.

A private resale, at a price no one disclosed, did this to the carriers. Their value may now hang on a network SpaceX has not yet planned in public. If it builds slowly, the selloff could look too steep. The carriers launched their own satellite phone venture on Oct. 1. If SpaceX builds fast, that venture could face a rival that owns its airwaves.

The Gap Sat With a Private Owner

Grain held the band between two public owners and may keep a large gap. One reading: a real fourth carrier is forming. Another: investors are pricing a network SpaceX hasn't built. The carriers' reports later this month are the first test.

SIGNAL 1: Waymo's First Debt Is $5 Billion. Private-Credit and Bond Managers Lent It.

Waymo closed a $5 billion term loan, its first debt. PIMCO, Blackstone (BX) and Sixth Street led. Apollo, Blue Owl, HPS and Oaktree joined bond-fund managers in the group. Waymo did not give the rate. The loan was reported at 5.25 points over the benchmark.

Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey flagged the risk Thursday. AI financing "has created new exposures," he said. He named a trigger: a sharp change in views on AI earnings or adoption. The fallout, he said, "could spread through equity, credit and sovereign markets."

Big Growth Is Borrowing Without Listing

Waymo borrowed without giving up any ownership. The loan adds fixed interest costs while the fleet is still growing. That risk now sits with private-credit and bond managers. Until it trades, its value is largely their own estimate.

SIGNAL 2: Gilt Yields Hit a 2007 High. Bailey Said the Buyers Have Changed.

Britain's 10-year yield touched about 5.53% Thursday, the highest since 2007. Bond markets "were once dominated by long-term investors," Bailey said. Now "leveraged investors play a much larger role." Their positions "can be unwound rapidly." So far, he said, most moves have stayed orderly. Britain's budget lands Oct. 28. EY estimates the cushion under its fiscal rules has shrunk to £11.3 billion. In March, EY put it at £23.6 billion.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said rates may need to rise further in the next six to nine months. That would bring inflation down within about 18 months. He would not commit to this month's meeting. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.60% Thursday.

Borrowed Money Now Holds the Long End

Long bonds used to sit with buyers who held them. More now sit with funds that borrow to buy. When prices drop, they may be forced to sell. A weak budget or a hot price report could then set off a fast selloff. September consumer prices arrive Oct. 14.

SIGNAL 3: Investors Have Pulled Nearly $1 Billion From Crypto Funds This Month. Ether Bets Took the Worst of the Flush.

Net outflows from U.S. bitcoin and ether funds hit about $986 million this month. On Thursday, one fund did most of the selling in each. Fidelity's fund had about four-fifths of bitcoin's $244 million outflow. BlackRock's had nearly all of ether's. Ether funds have had outflows eight sessions running.

About $1.19 billion of leveraged bets were forced shut in 24 hours, derivatives data show. For its size, ether lost about six times as much as bitcoin. Bitcoin dipped just above $80,000 Thursday, then climbed. At 6:45 a.m., it was back above $82,000.

The Leverage Cleared. Buyers Haven't Shown Yet.

Holders who borrowed took the forced selling, ether's most of all. Friday's options expiry, which PMD flagged last night, comes with fund money still leaving. Friday's fund data, out after the close, will show if the bounce drew buyers back.

• Friday: Michigan's early October consumer survey; bitcoin and ether options expire.
• Oct. 14: September consumer prices.
• Oct. 27-28: Fed meeting.
• Oct. 28: U.K. budget.
• No date set: FCC review of SpaceX's airwaves deal; Firmus's private raise.

A private owner can sit between two public prices and keep the gap. Public holders who weren't in the deal can take the hit. When a fund holds a scarce asset, ask what it paid and who can buy it next. When a market's holders borrowed to buy, ask who has to sell first.

This morning, who held the asset decided who gained and who paid. Grain held airwaves for two months and may keep a large markup. Carrier shareholders lost about $35 billion in early trading. Waymo's new risk sits with private-credit and bond managers. In gilts and crypto, the holders who borrowed are the first who can be forced to sell.