The Dow Rose | Brent Dropped Below $100 | Buyer Ties Half of a $915 Million Price to Tax Credits

About 8%.

Brent lost about 8% on Wednesday. It was near $95 a barrel late in the day, its first time below $100 in about a month. U.S. crude fell to near $88.50, its third straight daily drop. On Tuesday, the president said the U.S. had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Iran's leaders signaled no change, and no deal was signed. The weekly oil data PMD flagged this morning showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell for a fifth straight week. Brent fell anyway.

Oil fell 8% with no deal in place. It could climb back just as fast.

• Gold rose more than 3%, and the dollar index slipped about a third of a percent.
• ADP said private hiring beat forecasts. ISM's services index cooled, but its price gauge stayed above 70. Kalshi's December rate hike contract traded near 80 cents in the afternoon, up from 78 in the morning. Treasury yields still fell.
• Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 for the first time since last week's Binance theft. It held near that level late Wednesday, still below its 50-day average.
• AMD (AMD), which PMD noted was more than 5% higher before the open, closed up about 1%. Arm (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM) and AppLovin (APP) reported after the close.

The Dow Rose 3%. The Stocks That Supply AI's Data Centers Fell.

Outlets called Congress for Democrats overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 3%. The S&P 500 gained 1.6%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose 6.7%. Amazon (AMZN) rose 6.1%. Oil fell the same day, and the data cannot say whether the vote or oil mattered more.

The rally left out this year's leaders. The chip-stock fund SMH fell nearly 3%. Vistra (VST), a power producer, fell 13.8%. CoreWeave (CRWV), which rents out AI computing, fell 9.9%. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the race for Texas governor. Reports said she had campaigned on a pause in data-center approvals.

Bitcoin miners, many now landlords for AI firms, split. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rose 9.6%. It disclosed a 15-year lease of its Texas campus to an AI lab, worth about $28 billion. Cipher Mining (CIFR) fell nearly 20%, and CleanSpark (CLSK) fell nearly 17%. Bernstein cut its price targets on seven miners by more than a third.

A Signed Lease Held Up. Plans Still Needing Approvals Did Not.

One reading: investors paid for contracts in hand and marked down projects that still need approvals. Another: it is one session, and the new governor has not set a policy. Vistra, a Texas power producer, reports on Friday.

SIGNAL 1: A Private Equity Firm Is Selling Its Ethanol Plants for $915 Million. The Buyer Ties Half the Price to Tax Credits.

Energy Capital Partners agreed to sell Harvestone Low Carbon Partners to The Andersons (ANDE). Harvestone owns three ethanol plants and runs one of the first U.S. ethanol carbon capture projects, ECP said. The buyer said roughly half the price is tied to expected cash from federal tax credits. The Andersons will pay the full $915 million with debt from banks and a farm lender.

ECP owned Harvestone for less than four years. Neither side said what ECP paid or what the plants earn. The Andersons' stock fell nearly 12% on Wednesday. That was its first session since both the deal and the quarterly results the company posted after Tuesday's close. The deal is expected to close late this year or early next.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The Andersons' filings on how it splits the price, and the closing date. Any new federal rules on those tax credits.

SIGNAL 2: Treasury Dropped Two Words From Its Guidance on Auction Sizes. It Nearly Doubled Its Buybacks.

In August, Treasury said it expected to hold auction sizes steady "for at least the next several quarters." On Wednesday, the words "at least" were gone. Sizes did not change. Treasury also raised its planned buybacks to as much as $70 billion this quarter, from $38 billion.

Its advisory panel said bigger auctions will be needed later this fiscal year. Dealers expect the extra supply in two- to 10-year notes. By midafternoon, the 10-year yield sat near 4.89%, down about 6 basis points. The plan came out the same morning as trade data, the stock open and oil's drop, so no move can be tied to it.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The auctions on Nov. 9, 10 and 12. Officials have not said which way they will use the room they gave themselves.

SIGNAL 3: Circle's Revenue Rose 17%. A One-Time Token Sale Supplied $182 Million of It.

Circle (CRCL) issues the USDC stablecoin. Its revenue and reserve income rose 17% from a year earlier. A presale of ARC, the token of its new blockchain, supplied $182 million. Without it, revenue fell about 8%, by our math.

Its main income source, interest on the reserves behind the coin, dropped 8% as rates fell. The coin's supply was flat from a year earlier at quarter's end. Circle said it will cut about 5% of its staff, and the stock closed up about 1%.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The coin's growth this quarter, against Circle's goal of about 40% a year. Lower rates mean each coin earns less, so steady income needs more coins.

• This morning, PMD said none of the three firms had confirmed a JSR deal. Mitsui Chemicals now says it is weighing a JSR purchase, but nothing is decided. Its shares closed down about 10% in Tokyo.
• PAI Partners agreed to buy skincare brand Elemis from L'Occitane. L'Occitane bought it seven years ago for about $900 million, and sales have nearly doubled since. Neither side gave a price.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

A signed contract does not remove policy risk. It decides who carries it.

ECP's price is fixed, subject to adjustments. At closing, the half tied to tax credits would pass to a listed buyer whose shares trade every day. Riot locked in 15 years of rent before any new Texas rules. Neither those rules nor the future of the credits is settled. Until both are, buyers may keep paying up for terms in writing. That is a read from one session, not yet a trend.

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