The Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Gets Rewritten Wednesday. Payrolls Get the Last Word Friday.

Last week ended with a question the bond market could not answer.

The 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday at 5.18%, per Treasury data. A week earlier it was 5.01%. Futures put the odds of an October hike near 67%.

Two stories explain the move. One says the economy is running hot. The other says crowded trades got forced out. They lead to different places, and this week has the data to pick one.

It starts Wednesday, when the government restates the inflation gauge the Fed watches most. It ends Friday with a jobs report. In between, the AI build gets a price check from its memory supplier. The IPO window gets a live test.

Wednesday Rewrites the Fed's Favorite Gauge

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, BEA releases August personal income and spending, with PCE prices. The same morning brings the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and corporate profits.

This is not a normal release. It carries BEA's annual update, which revises data back to early 2021. BEA is also changing how it prices portfolio management, legal services and software.

In July, core PCE prices were up 3.3% from a year earlier. The headline was 3.7%.

Profits matter too. They show whether companies are keeping pace with dearer money.

The hike case rests on inflation that will not cool. On Wednesday the yardstick itself moves. Nobody outside BEA knows yet which way the net revision cuts.

What to Watch

Read the revised history before the August number. A lower path would say part of the problem was measurement. A higher or unchanged one would make the demand story harder to argue with.

Is the Job Market Still the Fed's Permission Slip?

Payrolls land Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. August added 162,000 jobs, well above the 31,000 average of the prior year. Unemployment held at 4.1%. Wages rose 3.1% from a year earlier.

Three reads come first. Job openings arrive Tuesday at 10 a.m. ADP's count follows Wednesday. Jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, and the next report comes Thursday.

A tight job market is what lets the Fed hike without fear of breaking something. It also moves the two-year yield, which tracks where markets think the Fed is headed. That path feeds bank deposit costs and the floating rates private borrowers pay.

What to Watch

A second strong month would back the view that growth drove the selloff. A soft one would give the forced-selling story room, and the October odds a reason to fall.

Can the AI Build Keep Paying for Memory?

Micron (MU) reports Wednesday after the close, with its call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. In June it guided to revenue of $50.0 billion, plus or minus $1 billion. It also guided to a gross margin near 86%. Last quarter's revenue was $41.46 billion.

That margin is someone else's cost. Jabil (JBL) reports Wednesday before the open. Akamai (AKAM) has authorized Jabil to buy about $1.7 billion of memory under an existing deal. Akamai also raised 2026 capital spending by about $1.7 billion to pre-buy parts for its Anthropic contract.

So the build now pays up twice. Memory costs more, and so does the money that funds it.

New memory supply is still far off. A rival's planned capacity won't ship at scale before 2027.

What to Watch

Watch Micron's outlook for next quarter, not the quarter just ended. A higher guide would mean cloud builders are still paying up as rates rise. A softer one would be an early sign the build is pacing itself.

Does the Exit Window Open for Anyone?

Oura, the smart ring maker, is expected to price its Nasdaq IPO this week. It is offering 50 million shares at $40 to $44. Existing holders are selling about two-thirds of them. The company is profitable. It earned $59 million on $1.43 billion of revenue in the year to June 30.

The backdrop is thin. Of 26-plus companies that filed with major banks since July, only nine went public. Five of 2026's 10 largest IPOs were trading below their offer price. SB Energy pushed its listing to mid-to-late October.

Jefferies (JEF) reports Monday, a read on how much dealmaking actually closed in the quarter.

IPOs are how sponsors hand cash back to their investors. When that door stays shut, owners sell to other funds or accept lower prices.

What to Watch

Watch where Oura prices against its range, then its first day. A clean deal from a profitable seller says price was the problem. A weak one says demand is.

Does Anyone at the Fed Blink Before the Blackout?

Fed officials fill the calendar. Governor Michael Barr speaks Tuesday at 12:40 p.m. Eastern on the outlook. New York's John Williams, Chicago's Austan Goolsbee and St. Louis's Alberto Musalem also speak Tuesday. Richmond's Tom Barkin speaks Monday and Wednesday. Boston's Susan Collins and Kansas City's Jeff Schmid follow Thursday.

The speeches land after Wednesday's revision and before Friday's jobs data. The blackout before the October 27 to 28 meeting starts October 17.

Last week, Barkin named AI spending as a lasting price pressure. Schmid asked whether the AI buildout is becoming too big to fail.

What to Watch

Listen for anyone citing the revised PCE as progress. That would be an early crack in the hike case. A second official adopting Barkin's AI argument would make it committee thinking.

Accenture (ACN) reports Thursday before the open, with its call at 8 a.m. Eastern. It is a read on whether AI helps or squeezes consulting work.

Nike (NKE) reports Thursday after the close, at about 4:15 p.m. Eastern. It is a read on shoppers as borrowing costs climb.

The ISM factory index lands Thursday at 10 a.m. Eastern. Consumer confidence comes Tuesday at 10 a.m.

September 30 closes the quarter. The marks behind this year's private-credit redemption fights are struck that day but reported later.

Congress has funded the government through December 11, so the fiscal year turns without a shutdown.

Still open, with no date, is the price of the $18 billion loan behind Oracle (ORCL)'s Jupiter campus. Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to fund its $1 billion Nscale commitment in mid-November.

Saturday's point was that strength, not stress, now sets the price of money.

This week tests both halves of that sentence.

Start Wednesday morning. If the revised PCE history runs cooler, the hike case loses footing before any new price prints. Then read Micron that night for what the build is willing to pay. Save Friday for the verdict on growth.

Two outcomes would change the read. A cooler PCE and a soft jobs report would favor the unwinding story, and yields could ease. A firm PCE and a strong report would make a 5% 10-year the base case.

Either way, every refinancing, IPO and data center loan gets priced against the answer.