Four Fed positions inside 72 hours before the July 28-29 vote. Wall Street traders are on pace for their best year ever at $180 billion. Apollo declared the 60-40 portfolio dead. And Dimon called broad access to Anthropic's Mythos "ballistic missiles to individuals."
$180 billion.
The pace at which the five biggest Wall Street banks are on track to log trading revenue in 2026. Their best year ever per The Wall Street Journal. Q2 markets revenue was up 38% across JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C).
The Fed committee went public with four positions inside 72 hours.
Warsh will not signal. Cook is ready to hike. Williams says well-positioned. Waller wants to hike-condition.
Goldman and Citigroup are set to break post-crisis trading records.
Apollo's Torsten Slok called the 60-40 framework dead. The replacement: AI-vs-non-AI.
Dimon called broad access to Anthropic's Mythos "ballistic missiles to individuals."
PMD LENS
Yesterday's PMD tracked Anthropic's October IPO investor meetings against the AI capex super-cycle. Today the Fed split went public. The July 28-29 vote sits inside four positions at the top of the committee. A record trading tape. A portfolio-construction reset. And a bank CEO cyber warning about the largest private AI lab preparing to file.
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- Warsh meets weekly with Treasury Secretary Bessent. He declined to say if he spoke to Trump.
- Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speak Thursday before Saturday's blackout.
- The US will charge 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports July 22. Coffee, beef, orange juice, and aerospace parts are exempt. Ethanol market access is a cited grievance.
- United Airlines (UAL) expects nearly $6 billion in added fuel costs this year. Jet fuel at major US airports rose 34% in July alone. UAL still raised full-year EPS to $9-$11 by passing costs through fares.
- US SPR fell to 316.5 million barrels, its lowest since 1983.
The Fed Split Just Went Public. Four Positions in 72 Hours.
Warsh testified twice this week without signaling a rate path. Three colleagues stepped in. The July 28-29 vote lands with four positions on the tape.
The Warsh Silence
Warsh told the House he wants to be "more circumspect." He told Sen. John Kennedy that inflation is "not going to be permanent." Kennedy pressed for leave, raise, or lower. Warsh agreed each was an option. Then suggested none might be. Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights said the answers "remain puzzling."
The Cook Hike-Readiness
Fed Governor Lisa Cook told the Exchequer Club on Wednesday it is "prudent to give a bit more time." She cited AI capex, tariff pass-through, and the Middle East war. Cook: "If we do not see signs of disinflation soon, I am prepared to act." That reads as a hike reference. Cook joins Waller.
The Williams Well-Positioned
NY Fed's John Williams said Wednesday inflation is "unquestionably too high at about 4%." He named five reasons it has peaked. Tariffs fading. Oil peak behind. AI supply coming online. Labor market stable. Expectations anchored. Williams sees inflation at 3.25% by year-end. He called policy "well positioned."
The Waller Hike-Conditional
Waller said Monday he needs "several months" of easing inflation. Waller: "Sternly staring at inflation is not an option." The June dot plot showed half of Warsh's 18 colleagues expect a hike by year end. Warsh did not submit a dot.
The Split Signal
Logan and Jefferson speak Thursday. Their positioning tells you whether the hike-readiness bloc extends. Watch whether Warsh signals any July preference before Saturday's blackout. Any position priced on a single Fed path now carries wider distribution. Pull that exposure this week.
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SIGNAL 1: Wall Street Traders Are Having Their Best Year Ever at $180 Billion
The Wall Street Journal reports the five biggest Wall Street banks are on pace for $180 billion in 2026 trading revenue. Q2 markets revenue rose 38%. Equities led. JPMorgan equities rose 86%. Goldman rose 72%. Single-stock volatility hit dot-com-end levels. JPMorgan is close to $1 trillion in market value.
The Peak-Quarter Read
Watch any Q3 miss below Q2 before Q4 earnings. That single print converts record pace to peak-behind-us. Size trading-linked marks accordingly.
SIGNAL 2: Apollo's Slok Declared the 60-40 Dead
MarketWatch reports Apollo's Torsten Slok called the classic 60-40 framework dead. Slok: "The new 60-40 is AI vs. non-AI." The 10 largest S&P 500 names make up about 40% of the index. Nine are AI-tied. Only Eli Lilly (LLY) is not. AI accounts for 87% of net new venture capital. AI infrastructure accounts for nearly half of investment-grade issuance.
The Allocation Rewire
Watch any large pension restructuring around AI vs non-AI before Q4 earnings. That converts Apollo's frame to institutional rewiring.
SIGNAL 3: Dimon Warns Broad Access to Mythos Is a "Real Issue"
Bloomberg reports Dimon called broad access to Anthropic's Mythos "ballistic missiles to individuals". He spoke Wednesday at Sen. McCormick's Pennsylvania defense summit. Trump attended. JPMorgan has had Mythos access since April. The warning lands against JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative. Anthropic said Mythos is too capable to release generally.
The Systemic Cyber Read
Watch any second bank CEO Mythos warning before Anthropic files. Extension converts Dimon-specific into systemic concern the buyer pool must price.
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• Watch Logan and Jefferson Thursday. They tell you whether the hike-readiness bloc extends.
• Watch the July 29 core PCE print. It lands after the Fed decides.
• Watch the first Q3 bank trading revenue miss below Q2. Converts record pace to peak-behind-us.
• Watch any pension restructuring around AI vs non-AI. Confirms Apollo's frame at scale.
• Watch any second bank CEO Mythos warning. Makes Dimon-specific systemic.
Capital Discipline
Four Fed positions went public before a vote. A record trading tape. A portfolio-construction reset from Apollo. A bank CEO cyber warning. Every book priced on a single Fed path now carries wider distribution than the June dot plot suggested.
Run this test before July 28-29. Pull one private credit position underwritten on "rates hold or cut." Rerun at a 25 basis point September hike. Then rerun at 50 by year end. If IRR clears both, hold. If it needs the hold path, you are carrying a rate bet, not a credit bet. Size accordingly.
Watch Logan and Jefferson Thursday before Saturday's blackout. Watch a Q3 bank trading revenue miss. Watch a second bank CEO Mythos warning before Anthropic's October IPO.
Those three tell you whether the hike-readiness bloc extends, whether $180 billion is peak, and whether the Anthropic buyer pool prices systemic cyber concern.
