The First Six Months Repriced Almost Everything.

Today is the observed Fourth of July. Markets are closed. The tape is quiet.

Yesterday we looked back at the full arc of American financial markets. Today we look at the most recent chapter.

The first six months of 2026 were less about surprises than transitions. Monetary policy changed leadership. Trade policy moved from executive action to the courts. War reshaped energy markets before diplomacy started to reverse much of the move. AI shifted from promise to contractual obligation. Capital markets that had been frozen for three years reopened.

The S&P 500 sits near record highs heading into the back half. That alone understates what the market actually absorbed to get here. This piece walks back through each transition, then looks at what carries forward.

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Jerome Powell's term as chair ended May 15. Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13 and sworn in on May 22 as the 17th chair.

His first meeting on June 17 delivered a hawkish surprise. Rates stayed at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, as expected. The dot plot did not. The median 2026 projection moved from 3.4 percent in March to 3.8 percent in June. Nine of eighteen officials now see at least one rate hike before year-end. The S&P fell more than 1 percent on the day. The 2-year yield jumped 16 basis points.

Warsh also signaled a shift in how the Fed will communicate. He told reporters the Fed has "dropped" forward guidance. The market lost one of its favorite tools for front-running rate decisions in a single press conference.

On February 20, the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs the administration had been using as its primary trade tool. The administration pivoted within hours to a 10 percent global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

On May 7, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that one invalid as well. An appeal is in motion. Section 232 and Section 301 actions are still live. Refund processes for collected tariffs remain unresolved.

For corporate America, trade policy became something no CFO wants. A variable decided by litigation rather than legislation. Companies that built procurement and pricing assumptions around one tariff regime spent the year adjusting to a different one, then a third. The uncertainty itself became the operating condition.

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Iran retaliated by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas trade.

The supply disruption became the largest in the history of the global oil market, according to the International Energy Agency. Brent crude jumped from roughly $72 in late February to nearly $120 by mid-March. Gasoline prices rose more than a dollar a gallon in the United States. Asia, more dependent on Hormuz oil, was hit harder. Fuel shortages spread across the Pacific Rim.

An interim peace deal was reached in mid-June. The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding. The Strait of Hormuz is set to reopen. Brent has fallen back to near $78. Industry estimates put recovery of Iranian production and refining capacity at weeks to months at minimum, and potentially years.

The war is paused. The supply chain is not back to normal.

With 91 percent of the S&P 500 reported, the index posted its highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. The highest revenue growth rate since Q2 2022. The highest net profit margin in FactSet's records, which start in 2009. 84 percent of companies beat EPS estimates. The aggregate beat ran nearly 18 percent above expectations, more than twice the historical norm.

The numbers were the obvious story. The qualitative signal mattered more.

Management teams across technology, utilities, industrials, and financial services were not describing market opportunity. They were reporting obligations already incurred. Contracted gigawatts. Locked procurement schedules. Signed multi-year agreements. Capital plans resized around named customer commitments.

When executives describe what they hope the market will do, they are expressing a view. When they describe what they have already signed, they are reporting a fact. Q1 2026 was weighted toward the latter. AI infrastructure has moved from narrative to balance sheet item.

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The headline event was SpaceX (SPCX), which priced on June 12 and traded up nearly 20 percent on its debut. It became the largest IPO in American history by deal size. The reception confirmed that institutional appetite for high-quality private names had been waiting for a window, not absent.

The pipeline behind SpaceX is significant. Anthropic and OpenAI are both reportedly preparing public listings. Each would represent a major AI infrastructure name moving from private capital to public markets. The IPO calendar for the second half of 2026 looks more active than any year since 2021.

A functioning IPO market matters beyond the individual deals. It is the public-market end of the capital cycle that feeds private market valuations, employee compensation, and reinvestment. The window opening is its own first-half story.

Instead of when will the Fed cut, the question is whether the Fed has to hike.

Instead of how durable is the AI demand thesis, the question is whether the supply side can deliver against contracts already signed.

Instead of when will the IPO window reopen, the question is how large the deals can become.

Instead of how high can oil go, the question is how quickly normal supply restores.

Instead of what the tariff strategy is, the question is what the courts will allow.

Each thread above carries forward. The Fed's September meeting is the next decision point on rate path. Q2 earnings season starts in mid-July and delivers the first real read on AI execution. The Section 122 appeal works through the courts on its own timeline. The Strait of Hormuz has to actually reopen, not just be designated to reopen. The IPO pipeline behind SpaceX has to test whether the window stays open or closes again.

None of these are resolved. All of them will move.

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Yesterday we looked at 250 years of American capital cycles. History rarely arrives all at once. The first six months of 2026 came close.

A new chair at the central bank. A war and a peace. A trade regime in court. The largest IPO in American history. An earnings season that reset what corporate growth looks like. All in 26 weeks.

The system absorbed it. The market sits near record highs. The construction continues.

Markets reopen Monday. We will be back to regular coverage then.

This is the 250th Fourth of July for the United States. A quarter of a millennium. Thank you for reading, for being part of this community, and for making the conversations on these pages worth having. Enjoy the long weekend. Happy 250th, America.