Bloomberg reports the 30-year Treasury auction cleared at the highest yield since 2001. The 10-year cleared at the highest since 2007. Fitch kept AA+ but warned the fiscal deficit will widen in 2026. OpenAI's run rate topped $40 billion. Silver Lake is in talks to buy Workday at above $51 billion. Musk disclosed a 48.4% SpaceX stake worth $900 billion.
Five point two one six.
The yield at Thursday's $25 billion 30-year Treasury auction per Bloomberg. That is the highest interest rate at that tenor since 2001. The sale followed the 10-year auction a day earlier that drew the highest financing cost at that tenor since 2007. Fitch kept its AA+ rating on the US credit profile Thursday while warning that the nation's fiscal deficit relative to the size of the economy would widen in 2026, driven by tax cuts and tariff rebates. Interest on the public debt for the fiscal year to date is $1.17 trillion, a 15% increase.
The 30-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.216%. Highest since 2001.
OpenAI's run rate topped $40 billion. Anthropic's was $47 billion in May.
Silver Lake is in talks to buy Workday (WDAY). The stock jumped 18%.
Musk disclosed a 48.4% SpaceX (SPCX) stake worth over $900 billion.
Applied Materials (AMAT) beat and guided higher. It fell 5% after hours.
PMD LENS
Yesterday afternoon tracked the July PPI print at flat and the first rate hike moving to October or December. This morning the specific long-bond yield at 5.216% names the specific cost of that specific hold framework at the specific investor-compensation layer. Every 25-basis-point Fed decision now compounds against the specific $31 trillion in outstanding Treasuries at the specific market-pricing layer.
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- Two new memory fabs will cost SK Hynix 54 trillion won, about $38 billion.
- Sandisk (SNDK) closed up 13.7% on new guidance. It is up over 3,000% in a year.
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The US Government Just Sold 30-Year Bonds at 5.216%. The Highest Interest Rate Since 2001.
The Auction
The government sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday. The clearing yield was 5.216%. It has not paid that much for thirty-year money since 2001.
This was not a failed sale. Bids covered the offering 2.39 times.
The Price of Absorption
Supply is why. Marketable Treasuries run about $31 trillion, double 2018 and ten times 2001.
Michal Stanczyk of Allspring told Bloomberg the Fed "is no longer a major buyer." Gennadiy Goldberg of TD Securities put it another way. Demand is there, "just at a price."
The yield came in above where the market sat before the deadline. Treasury's alternative is the front end. John Fath of BTG Pactual named its limit. Pushed far enough it "becomes what I would call irresponsible."
The Long Discount
Corporate borrowers had it easier. AMD (AMD) priced $4.75 billion at 90 basis points over on its 2036 notes. Talk that morning was 115.
The long end is not only the government's problem. It discounts every asset paying past 2035. Underwriters price that buildout off a 25-year high.
The Clearing Price
The tape prices a Fed that can afford to wait. It does not price who funds the waiting. The gap is that the Fed sets one end and the market sets the other. On September 10 Treasury reopens this same bond. A clear above 5.216% makes the hold a constraint, not a choice.
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SIGNAL 1: Both Labs Now Have a Revenue Number. Neither Has Accounts.
Yesterday afternoon PMD carried Steve Eisman's warning. Two companies drive roughly 70% of AI revenue at four hyperscalers.
Both now have a number. OpenAI's run rate topped $40 billion, double where it ended 2025. Anthropic's was $47 billion in May.
What Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Oracle (ORCL) book is not that revenue. It is what the two spend to earn it.
Neither side breaks it out. The two may not even count a run rate the same way.
The Counterparty Line
Four listed companies report AI revenue as a market. Most of it runs through two customers who publish no accounts. The denominator is missing. In an S-1 that reads as concentration, and as growth elsewhere. A filing from either lab before Jackson Hole supplies it.
SIGNAL 2: Private Equity Just Called the Derating Overdone
Investors wrote Workday off as AI roadkill. Thursday a buyer appeared.
Silver Lake is in talks to take it private. The stock jumped 18% to a $51 billion market value. No price has surfaced.
Workday has fallen 15% this year and sits 40% below its 2024 peak. Hours earlier Thoma Bravo bought Accelerant (ARX) for over $4 billion, a 49% premium. That one is insurance.
The two share no sector, just a financing market that reopened.
The Entry Price
Public multiples on legacy software price for replacement. They do not price a sponsor underwriting the same cash flows whole. Between them sits a leveraged loan market that is open again. Workday's bid has no number yet. A signed deal before October puts one on the derating.
SIGNAL 3: The Filing Is About Ownership. The Trade Is About Float.
Musk disclosed a 48.4% stake in SpaceX. That is worth over $900 billion.
The filing counts 6.42 billion shares in his name, about 1.3 billion of them still vesting. Reuters puts his voting power above 82%.
SpaceX fell nearly 33% through the end of July, then jumped 30% in August. The first lockup made 911 million shares eligible on August 6.
Ownership is clear. Supply is not.
The December Window
Roughly 1.5 billion shares trade against 13 billion outstanding. The price does not carry the tranches still to come. The gap is that one expiry passed and the tape called it all-clear. An absorbed expiry is not an absorbed float. The full expiry around December 8 turns a lockup story into a float story.
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- Today, retail sales in the morning session. Eastern. Michigan consumer sentiment.
- Today, the second Washington-based Fed governor deadline.
- August 27, Jackson Hole.
- Early September, the August CPI print and the August fiscal print.
- September 10, Treasury reopens Thursday's 30-year bond.
- September 15-16, FOMC.
Capital Discipline
Long-duration private assets take their mark from a curve, not the Fed. Data centers, power contracts and net-lease property discount cash flows past 2035. That curve just printed its highest auction clear since 2001. Most of those assets predate it.
Pull the holding with the longest contracted cash flows. Rediscount it at 5.216% instead of the rate in the original model. If the entry price survives, you own the asset. If it only survives at the old discount rate, you own cheap duration. Settle that before the September 10 reopening answers it for you.
Fink named the comparison. July's CPI gave Warsh cover. July's PPI confirmed it. This morning the auction named the cost.
Three tests land before the September meeting. The August CPI print. A public S-1 from either AI lab before Jackson Hole. The September 10 reopening of Thursday's bond.
The open question is no longer whether the Fed can hold. It is whether the market takes the rate the Fed holds at. Or demands more before Fink's asset class issues paper.
