The US Struck Iran Again This Weekend. Oil Rose 3% Overnight.

The US military hit 140 Iranian targets Saturday, per US Central Command, then launched another wave Sunday. Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.

Hyperscaler bond spreads widened across Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and SpaceX (SPCX) last week. Six hyperscalers have issued $244 billion in bonds this year, up from $108 billion last year.

Nick Timiraos reports Warsh's first big call is whether to undo last year's rate cuts. Governor Waller said risks had "completely flipped."

Brookfield (BN) is in exclusive talks to acquire a 10% stake in Hudson Square at a $3.5 billion valuation. Anthropic just leased an entire 16-story building at 330 Hudson Street.

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The Fourth Wave

The US hit 140 Iranian targets Saturday and launched another wave Sunday. Iran retaliated with strikes on US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Oman's foreign minister summoned the Iranian ambassador Sunday and delivered a note of protest. The weekend airstrikes are the fourth time the US has bombed Iran over the past week.

The Route Dispute

Iran said the Revolutionary Guard closed Hormuz until further notice. Centcom disputed the claim. Trump said Hormuz was open in an NBC News interview. Windward tracked nine ships that transited Saturday. The southern route through Oman's waters remains open, per the Joint Maritime Information Center, but mariners were told to exercise "extreme vigilance."

The Oman Toll Proposal

France and the UK are studying proposals drafted by Oman that may allow the charging of navigational fees in the strait, so long as the tolls are not compulsory and have UN IMO support. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Oman Saturday to meet with Foreign Minister Al Busaidi. The Oman framework converts the Paragraph 5 dispute from bilateral military conflict to multilateral toll negotiation.

The Fed Consequence

David Goldwyn, former US State Department special envoy: "The memorandum of understanding did not reach an understanding with respect to the management of ship traffic through the strait. It essentially punted that issue." Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: "The era of one-sided deals is OVER." The July 28-29 vote sits inside a fourth round of strikes plus Iranian retaliation against four US bases plus an Oman toll framework.

The Escalation Signal

Watch whether Iran conducts a fifth strike before Wednesday. Watch whether the Oman toll proposal receives UN IMO support before Warsh testifies Wednesday. Watch whether Brent settles above $80 by Wednesday.

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Six hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia, and SpaceX) have issued $244 billion in bonds globally this year per Dealogic, up from $108 billion last year. 

Alphabet 10-year bond spreads rose 0.12 percentage point last week per MarketAxess. Meta rose 0.16 percentage point. The average investment-grade bond spread ticked up only 0.02 percentage point. SpaceX 10-year bonds have widened nearly half a percentage point since June 23. 

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Even Alphabet at double-A rating is widening. The buyer pool is sorting AI credit across the entire spectrum.

The Signal to Watch

Any hyperscaler bond spread widening 25 basis points or more before Q3 earnings converts the framework from cyclical widening to structural repricing across the AI capital stack.

Nick Timiraos reports Warsh's first big call is whether to undo last year's rate cuts. A bloc of officials never thought the last two 2025 reductions were warranted. Governor Waller led the case for 2025 cuts. 

Last week Waller declared the risks had "completely flipped." BNP's Egelhof expects the Fed to raise rates three times beginning no later than December. 

NY Fed President Williams said he is looking for monthly core inflation readings of 0.2% or lower. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari: "Most of the analytical tools that we have to try to analyze inflation start in the labor market. Yet the labor market is not causing the inflation."

Warsh's testimony Tuesday and Wednesday operates against a documented "undo the cuts" framework the committee is already debating.

The Signal to Watch

Warsh pointing to AI capex, tariffs, or oil as a persistent inflation contributor in his testimony converts the framework from committee debate to chair-endorsed.

Brookfield is in exclusive talks for a 10% stake in Hudson Square Properties at a $3.5 billion valuation. Brookfield would take over as long-term operating partner. Anthropic leased an entire 16-story building at 330 Hudson Street last week and is on track to more than double its New York workforce by year-end. 

Office availability in Hudson Square fell 3 percentage points since Q2 2025 per Avison Young. Asking rents have risen nearly 20% to more than $87 per square foot. Google opened a 1.3 million-square-foot headquarters nearby in 2024. Disney (DIS) opened a 1.2 million-square-foot headquarters the same year.

The framework extends from data center infrastructure to Manhattan office anchoring AI tenants at scale.

The Signal to Watch

A second AI lab announcing a Manhattan office lease of 500,000 square feet or larger before Q3 earnings converts the framework from Anthropic-specific to AI-lab-Manhattan-anchor-wide.

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CAPITAL DISCIPLINE

The US launched a fourth wave of strikes against Iran and Iran retaliated against US bases in four Gulf countries. Hyperscaler bond spreads widened across all six documented borrowers. Timiraos named Warsh's first big call as whether to undo last year's cuts. And Brookfield is buying into Hudson Square at $3.5 billion. 

A fifth Iran strike before Wednesday tests whether the framework escalates from four-round exchange to sustained conflict. A hyperscaler bond spread widening 25 basis points tests whether the buyer pool sorts AI credit at scale. Warsh naming AI capex tests whether "undo the cuts" moves from committee debate to chair-endorsed.

Watch a fifth Iran strike before Wednesday. Watch a hyperscaler bond spread widening 25 basis points. Watch Warsh naming AI capex, tariffs, or oil as persistent inflation contributors.

Those three tell you whether the Paragraph 5 escalation converts to sustained conflict, whether the buyer pool sorts AI credit at scale, and whether Warsh endorses the "undo the cuts" framework before the July 28-29 vote.