Friday broke the pattern. Crude settled at $95.39. That is down 6.4% on the day and 4.7% on the week. It was the first settle under $100 in over a week.

It came two days after the Fed cut a line from its statement. The line blamed prices on energy supply. The Fed stopped waiting out oil. Then oil fell.

This week cannot settle that. There is no CPI in it and no PCE.

What it has is three Treasury sales, three reads on housing, and nine Fed speakers with no script to hide behind.

Three Auctions Make the New Path Pay for Itself

Treasury sells two-year notes Tuesday. Five-year notes follow Wednesday, seven-year notes Thursday. Each sale is at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

Last month those sales cleared at 4.204%, 4.393% and 4.512%.

Friday's market was higher across the board. The two-year sat at 4.76%, the five at 4.86%, the seven at 4.93%. Treasury has to sell the same paper at 40 to 55 basis points more.

Last week asked who still buys US debt. This week makes them bid in public, three times, at the path the Fed just signed off on.

What to Watch

Watch where each sale clears against the screen. Above it means buyers made Treasury pay to take the bonds. That number reaches every long-dated mark, because the belly of the curve is what those marks discount against.

Did the Fed Tighten Into a Shock That Was Already Fading?

Saudi Arabia said Thursday it would bring back half its main pipeline in days. Crude fell hard Friday.

That is one price on one day. The cost base is a separate question. Diesel set a record at $6.29 a gallon, up 68% in a year. It reaches food over months, not days. The Strait of Hormuz has been shut for about 200 days.

Two reads land midweek. EIA fuel stocks come Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Distillate is the line that matters. The rig count follows Friday, last at 452.

What to Watch

Crude can fall while diesel stays tight. If fuel stocks build and pump prices hold, the Fed cut the right line. If stocks draw again, it cut the line early.

Was Lennar the Builder, or Was It the Market?

Lennar (LEN) missed and cut its delivery target. The stock closed Friday at a one-year low. One builder is not a market.

Three things test that. KB Home (KBH) reports Tuesday for the quarter ended August. The call is near $0.89 a share. Sales are seen down about 20%, after a 27% drop last quarter.

New home sales land Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The call is near 610,000 against 607,000.

Freddie Mac posts its weekly rate Thursday at noon. It was 6.95% last week, up 19 basis points in a week.

August already leaned one way. Permits fell 2.7% to 1.394 million. Starts fell 2.6% to 1.275 million.

What to Watch

Watch what KB Home spends to hold volume. Then read new home sales against it. Two builders leaning on price, plus a falling permit count, is a market and not a company.

Is the Factory Slide Real, or Is AI Spending Covering It?

Factory output fell 0.3% in August. That snapped seven straight months of gains.

Flash business surveys come Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. Eastern. The call puts the whole economy gauge at 55.2 against 56.0. Factory activity is seen at 53.6 against 53.9.

Durable goods orders land Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The headline is seen down 0.5% after a 1.1% gain. The line to read is core capital goods, which leaves out defense and aircraft. It is seen up 0.1% after 0.2%.

That line is the cleanest public read on the data center build. It tells you whether the build still absorbs what the rest of the factory base is losing. The Philly Fed's own spending gauge already fell from 48.2 to 37.1 this month. Prices paid rose from 40.9 to 48.6.

What to Watch

Weak core capital goods with weak surveys would say the build no longer covers the gap. Anyone backing power or factory suppliers is long that one line.

What Do Nine Speakers Say About a Deleted Line?

Goolsbee speaks Monday. Williams, Jefferson and Barkin speak Tuesday. Barr speaks Wednesday. Williams, Barkin and Hammack speak Thursday. Williams and Hammack close the week Friday.

Williams alone speaks three times in four days.

No official has yet said, off script, why the Committee dropped the energy line. Sixteen of eighteen see one more hike this year. October 28 falls a week before Election Day.

What to Watch

Listen for anyone putting the energy carve-out back in their own words. That is the first sign Friday's crude move changed a mind in the building.

Does the Exit Queue Get One Clean Price?

Last Sunday asked whether a nuclear listing would put a public number on the power build. The answer came Wednesday. Holtec put off its US listing and named market conditions.

So the queue still has no price. Aggreko and Oura sit on file with no range and no date.

The private route kept working. KPS sold to an operator Friday. Datavant's owner sold a slice and kept control.

The UK Takeover Panel gave Waterland a 5 p.m. London deadline Friday. Bid for Gamma Communications, or step away. Epiris holds the only board-backed offer at 1,120 pence, worth just over a billion pounds. A shareholder vote is the next step.

What to Watch

Watch whether any sponsor prices a listing this week. A trade sale clears at a number two parties agree on. A listing prints one in public. Nobody has printed one yet.

Jobless claims come Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The call is 202,000, after a low 196,000.

Costco (COST) reports after the close Thursday. Bank of America kept its buy call this week and cut its target to $1,095 from $1,200. It named supply chain costs. General Mills (GIS) reports Wednesday and Darden (DRI) Thursday. Both read whether food prices still pass through.

Trump is expected to host Xi Jinping in Washington around September 24. The date is expected, not fixed.

Goldman (GS) and TPG (TPG) now hold more than $27 billion of new buyout money. It has to be put to work at these yields.

Saturday's point was that the Fed cut the reason to wait on energy. This week does not test that. It prices it.

Three auctions make the new path pay cash. A builder, a sales print and a rate survey say whether housing is one firm's problem. One line in Friday's orders report says whether the AI build still covers the factory slide. And nine speakers get asked what the statement stopped saying.

Hold one thing through all of it. A crude price can fall in a day. A diesel record moves into food over months. A permit nobody filed in August is a house nobody builds in 2027.

The Fed set the path on Wednesday. This week you find out what it costs to fund.