Thrive to Pay Tuesday's Price for ADT | Kalshi Doubled | Microsoft Selling Bonds

$40 billion.

Kalshi said it raised $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation. Sequoia and Wellington co-led the round. In May, the prediction-market operator was valued at $22 billion. That is about 1.8 times in roughly five months. The round closed the week before Utah charged Kalshi and its founders, the company said. No one has been convicted.

The new backers paid up with the legal fight already under way.

• ADT agreed to be taken private for $10 a share in cash. ADT (ADT) closed at $9.88, up 33%.
• The economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate last quarter, above forecasts. September prices rose 3.6% from a year earlier. Core prices rose 3.1%, matching forecasts. The ECB held at 2.5%, and Lagarde will leave in February.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) fell about 13%. The Nasdaq lost 1.4%, and the Russell 2000 rose 1%. ServiceNow (NOW) fell 27%.
• Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) were due to report after the close.

ADT Agreed to Sell for 46% More Than Tuesday's Price. Its Stock Trades as if No Rival Will Bid.

ADT (ADT) agreed to be acquired by Thrive Holdings for $10 a share in cash. The companies value the stock at about $7.6 billion, or $15.3 billion counting debt. The price is 45.6% above Tuesday's close, before talk of a deal. It is 35% above Wednesday's close. The board backed it unanimously.

Funds managed by Apollo Global Management (APO) are providing all of the financing commitments. The deal has no financing condition. The size and terms of the loan have not been disclosed. Thrive Holdings calls itself a permanent-capital holding company. It grew out of venture firm Thrive Capital.

ADT can seek a better offer until Nov. 28, with a possible 10-day extension for bidders who come forward. Yet ADT closed only about 1.2% below $10. The deal is due to close in early 2027. A gap that small on an all-cash deal leaves little room for a higher bid.

Before the deal, RBC flagged do-it-yourself alarms and AI as threats, with a $9 target. One reading: $10 is a full price. Another: a patient owner is buying steady cash at a price public investors would not pay. Last year ADT spent $607 million on buybacks and $187 million on dividends.

For Public Holders, the Exit Is Priced. The Upside Is Not.

The merger agreement, not yet filed, will show the break fees, including any lower fee for a go-shop bidder. ADT reports Nov. 3.

SIGNAL 1: Microsoft Is Reported Seeking at Least $25 Billion in Bonds. It Is Its First Such Sale Since 2017.

This morning, PMD said AI borrowing may compete for long-term money. Microsoft (MSFT) is seeking at least $25 billion in its first U.S. high-grade bond sale since 2017, according to reports. Some notes run 40 years. Uses include capital spending. Microsoft had $18.6 billion of free cash flow last quarter. It is choosing to borrow.

In Frankfurt, Lagarde said borrowing by the biggest tech firms was one factor behind higher yields. That comes from live accounts of her press conference. Treasury yields still fell, and the 10-year ended near 5%. High-grade bond funds briefly gave up a morning gain as the deal hit the market, then closed slightly higher. Tech stocks were falling at the same time, so the dip alone shows no cause.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The final size and pricing, including the 40-year note. The bonds are due to settle Nov. 4, the same day as Treasury's quarterly refunding.

SIGNAL 2: DoorDash Signed for Instacart at $65 a Share. Instacart Closed About $8 Below It.

DoorDash (DASH) agreed to buy Instacart for $65 a share, valuing Instacart's stock at about $17 billion. At least 75% will be paid in cash. Instacart (CART) fell 2.2% to $57.11. It also reported results and pulled its forecast that morning.

The contract allows up to two years for antitrust review. Closing is expected at the end of 2027 or in the first half of 2028. If antitrust approval fails, DoorDash pays Instacart $1.25 billion. DoorDash rose 5.6%. It also reported results within minutes, so the move is not a verdict on the deal.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The antitrust filing, and whether the FTC asks for more information. The proxy will show how the sale ran.

SIGNAL 3: The NYSE's Owner Plans a U.S. Market for Hyperliquid-Style Futures. Regulators Have Not Approved It.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) signed a deal to run a regulated U.S. market for Trade[XYZ]'s perpetual futures. Those contracts have no end date and run on the Hyperliquid blockchain. ICE is also investing in Trade[XYZ], on terms it did not disclose. The U.S. version would require identity checks.

The HYPE token rose about 15% after the news, close to its September record. ICE rose about 4.5%. Kraken's parent announced its own plan for regulated Hyperliquid markets in September. Bitcoin was near $80,300 late Thursday.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A regulatory filing and a launch date. Neither has been set. Then, whether fees reach HYPE holders or stay with ICE and brokers.

• Blue Owl (OWL) raised a record $8.3 billion from institutions last quarter. Requests to pull money from its main retail credit fund fell for a second quarter. Ares (ARES) took in $31 billion of commitments but invested about 17% less than a year ago.
• A Polymarket contract on Lagarde leaving the ECB in 2026 already priced yes. She leaves on Feb. 7, 2027. The rules count the announcement, not the exit date.
• Poundland has 10 working days of protection from creditors to find buyers. Its owner, Gordon Brothers, turned down a solvent offer, and three directors quit over it, a report said. Poundland said no one had made an acceptable offer for the whole chain.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Public markets charged Alphabet. Private money kept writing checks.

Alphabet (GOOGL) fell about 13% a day after showing it funds its build-out with debt and new stock. Microsoft (MSFT) is taking part of its spending to bond buyers. The same day, Apollo (APO) funds provided all of the financing commitments for the buyout of ADT (ADT). Sequoia and Wellington valued Kalshi at nearly twice its May price. Blue Owl (OWL) had its best quarter with institutions.

One reading: public prices reset every day, and private marks do not. That gap can make private buyers look bold, or late. ADT's go-shop, Microsoft's final pricing and Kalshi's court dates will start to show which.

On the calendar...