Tokyo and Seoul Fell About 6% | Hike Bets Fell Before Jobs Day | A Report Says Silver Lake and PIF Discussed Buying Unity

About 6%.

That is how far Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi fell on Friday. Seoul paused trading after the open. Asia took Thursday's chip selloff deeper. In New York on Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.36%. It was its worst day since April 2025. That was the hit to an S&P 500 index fund. Chip and server makers fell far more. The big tech firms that buy from them fell less than the index. Bonds helped as yields fell. Early Friday, Nasdaq-100 futures were up more than 1% [REFRESH]. Dow futures were lower [REFRESH].

Asia fell more than the S&P 500 did. Nasdaq-100 futures bounced.

• Brent settled up nearly 4% on Thursday, just above $98. A day before, it had its lowest close since Aug. 31. U.S. crude was near $91 early Friday [REFRESH: $89.26 at 4:36, $90.99 at 6:22; use "near $90" if below $90.50].
• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $430 million on Thursday, according to data compiled by Farside Investors. Bitcoin held near $76,000 overnight while Asia fell [REFRESH].
• Cloudflare and Airbnb beat forecasts after the close and raised their outlooks. Early Friday, Cloudflare was up about 16% [REFRESH: mid +17.3% at 6:20] and Airbnb about 12% [REFRESH]. Vistra reports before the open [REFRESH: not reported as of 6:25].

The Jobs Report Lands at 8:30. Traders Already Cut Their December Hike Bets.

Forecasters expect about 65,000 new jobs in October. They see the jobless rate holding at 4.2%.

Traders moved before the data. On Thursday, futures put the odds of a December hike near 70%. A day earlier they topped 80%. Kalshi's December hike contract was at 80 cents early Thursday. The contract pays on a quarter-point hike on Dec. 9. Early Friday it was near 68 cents [REFRESH: bid 68 / ask 70, last 70 on a later read; use "near 70 cents" if 69–71].

The signals before the report looked firm. Jobless claims fell. Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack said rates will need to turn restrictive. Richmond Fed's Thomas Barkin said "gradual makes sense."

The Hike Bet Fell With Stocks. Jobs Day Tests It.

One reading: the bet fell with stocks and could recover with them. A print near 65,000 leaves the hawks' case intact. Another: a stock drop that big makes money tighter for everyone, so the Fed may wait. A weak print, or a higher jobless rate, would add a jobs reason. The October price report comes Tuesday.

SIGNAL 1: Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia's PIF Have Discussed Buying Unity at About $25 Billion, a Report Says. No Offer Has Been Disclosed.

Silver Lake and PIF have held talks in recent weeks to buy Unity, a report said. It cited two people. The report said the group discussed a value of about $25 billion. Unity is working with a bank on its options. No deal is sure. Unity declined to comment.

Silver Lake already owns about 8% of Unity. Its Egon Durban sits on Unity's board. The same pair helped take Electronic Arts private in August.

On Thursday, Unity posted its first profit by standard rules since it listed in 2020. Its stock rose about 15% on a down day. That left it worth about $21.5 billion. The reported figure is about 16% above that. No price has been disclosed.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

A statement from Unity or the group, or a formal review. Whether other bidders appear.

SIGNAL 2: Thinking Machines Is Raising $5 Billion at a $40 Billion Value, a Report Says. Past Talks Were at About $50 Billion.

Thinking Machines Lab, an AI startup, is close to raising $5 billion, a report said. The report put its value at $40 billion before the new money. Accel is leading. The round could close as soon as this week. The company declined to comment.

Past talks at about $50 billion did not go ahead. That makes this a lower price than the company sought. It is not a down round, since no round was ever priced at $50 billion. Investors are still committing billions, but on terms closer to their own.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The close, the final size and the full list of investors.

SIGNAL 3: Shield AI Is Paying Up to $5.3 Billion for Echodyne. Blackstone Is Putting In $1 Billion of Structured Equity.

Shield AI, a defense-tech startup, agreed to buy Echodyne. Most of the price is due at closing. To fund it, Shield AI is raising $2.5 billion. A $1 billion round values it at $28.8 billion. Blackstone funds are adding $1 billion of structured equity. JPMorgan arranged $500 million of debt. The deal is expected to close early next year.

A report said its value has more than doubled this year. Structured equity usually sits between debt and common shares. It can protect the investor if the company's value falls. Shield AI has not disclosed Blackstone's terms, or how much of the price is paid in stock.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

The terms of Blackstone's investment. Approvals for the deal.

• DraftKings cut its profit forecast for this year by about three quarters. It plans to spend up to $700 million on prediction markets this year. Early Friday, its stock was about 20% lower.
• Monzo's talks to sell a stake to buyout firms have stalled, a report said. Those talks valued the UK bank at about £8 billion. It is now weighing a venture round at about £7.5 billion.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

Stocks repriced AI in a day. Private buyers are setting their own terms.

On Thursday, stocks marked down the firms that sell gear for data centers far more than those that pay for it. Private money set its own prices this week. Thinking Machines' reported price came in below its past talks. Shield AI's value more than doubled, a report said. But $1 billion of the new money came on terms it has not shared. A group with a seat on Unity's board discussed a value, a report said. One reading: private buyers still pay up, with protection built in. Another: lower targets and protected money let private prices fall quietly.

On the calendar...