Traders Priced a Fed Hold. December Is Open | Warburg's Ingenia Proposal Tops Its Rival | Robinhood's Prediction Markets Out-Earned Crypto

About 79%.

Kalshi's December contracts put the chance of a Fed hike at that meeting at about 79% early Wednesday. About three in four in a CNBC survey expect one. The Fed raised rates in September. Its range is now 3.75% to 4%. It decides again today, and a hold is the broad bet.

Today's call is priced. December's is not settled.

• At 2 p.m., the Fed decides. Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30. Kalshi's contract on today's meeting stops trading at 1:59.
• U.S. crude was back above $100 early Wednesday, after two days of declines. By 6:15 a.m., it was just under $102. By then, heating oil was little changed. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed a Houthi claim of a strike on its Ras Tanura refinery. That claim surfaced Tuesday, when Brent still fell.
• New Zealand held rates by one vote when markets had priced a hike. At 9:45 a.m., the Bank of Canada decides.
• Visa (V) beat forecasts but was quoted about 1.6% lower early Wednesday. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.

The Fed Is Expected to Hold Today. For Borrowers, the Live Question Is December.

Kalshi's contract that pays on a quarter-point hike today slipped to 5 cents. That was at 4:34 a.m., down from 7 cents Tuesday. On Tuesday afternoon, one big trade sold the hike at 6 cents. Polymarket's no-change contract rose to about 95 cents. Sunday's PMD said a calm hold would leave floating costs flat for borrowers. Traders now expect the hold. The tone comes at 2:30.

Market rates sit well above the Fed's range. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Tuesday just under 5%. Mortgage rates are above 7%, and September's new-home sales were 5.3% below a year earlier. Households told the Conference Board they expect rates to rise. They see prices up 5.8% in the next year.

Buyout-backed companies have a date of their own. About $300 billion of their debt starts coming due in 2028, a report said. Their owners are seeking extensions, the report said.

For Borrowers, the Tone Can Matter More Than the Vote

One reading: with a hold priced, the news is what Warsh says about December. A hint that December is live could reach long yields and loan quotes first. Growth and inflation data come Thursday.

SIGNAL 1: Warburg Pincus's Ingenia Proposal Tops Its Rival's. It Named Partners for Two Units.

Warburg Pincus raised its proposal for Ingenia, Ingenia said Wednesday. It offers A$5.45 a security in cash, in a nonbinding proposal. Holders could also get up to 5 cents in a payout. The cash tops a rival proposal from AVID Property Group by 10 cents. Two partners would take parts of the company. Discovery Parks would buy the holiday parks, and LDR Capital, a family office, the gardens business.

The board let Warburg back into due diligence. Warburg still needs binding debt, approvals and sign-off from both partners. Ingenia says a binding offer is not certain. Its securities closed at A$5.26 in Sydney, about 3.5% below the cash price.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

AVID has until Sunday, Nov. 1, to match. No one has said what the two units cost or how much debt backs the bid.

SIGNAL 2: Robinhood Now Earns More From Prediction Markets Than From Crypto. Its Stock Was Down About 8% Early.

Robinhood's results, flagged in Tuesday night's PMD, are out. Robinhood (HOOD) posted record third-quarter revenue, up 12%. Its prediction-market sales rose more than sixfold, to $173 million. Crypto fell 55% from a year earlier, to $120 million. From the second quarter, crypto rose about 20%.

Profit fell 14%. Adjusted earnings, a new measure, were 60 cents a share. That missed one consensus and beat others. Its provision for credit losses nearly tripled. Early Wednesday, the stock was quoted near $87, down about 8%. The drop can't be pinned on crypto alone.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

Coinbase and Strategy report Thursday. Coinbase's mix differs, but its results may show how retail crypto trading held up.

SIGNAL 3: BCE Plans to Sell 49.9% of a New Tower Company to a Pension Fund. Bell Keeps Control and Will Pay Rent.

BCE agreed to sell 49.9% of a new tower company to La Caisse for C$2.45 billion. La Caisse is a Quebec pension investor. The new tower company will own more than 5,000 Bell wireless sites. Bell keeps control and will lease space on the towers. The price values the whole tower business at about C$4.9 billion.

BCE says the cash will help its balance sheet, growth and payouts to holders. It gave no split. The tower company should have no debt at closing. The lease terms were not disclosed. One analyst does not expect the deal to cut BCE's debt much.

WHAT RESOLVES THIS

BCE expects the deal to close early next year. If disclosed, the lease terms would show what the cash costs Bell over time.

• Euro-area banks tightened lending standards again, an ECB survey shows. Loan demand fell, mainly on higher rates. One loan type gained demand: credit to build AI infrastructure.
• Universal Music's management held preliminary talks earlier this year about going private, a report said. Apollo, TPG and Blackstone were among the firms. The talks went nowhere, and there is no sale process.
• Polymarket and Kalshi read Israel's count differently. Kalshi's top price at 9:07 p.m. Tuesday was 60 cents. It was on "No one" becoming prime minister through a government formed after this election. Polymarket's contract on Netanyahu as the next prime minister was near 48.5 cents then. The rules differ, and the count is not final.

Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves

The price comes first. The cost of the money comes later.

Today's hold is priced. December's call is not settled. BCE gets its cash at closing and pays rent after that, on terms not yet shown. Warburg named a higher price before lining up its debt. Buyout owners are seeking more time on loans due from 2028, a report said. One reading: in each case, the headline number comes first and the cost of the money behind it is still open. Warsh's tone today could feed the debt side of that cost.

On the calendar...