Warsh Speaks | Meta Enters Compute | USMCA Unravels

Warsh spoke in Portugal today. He said almost nothing about July. Markets moved anyway.

The Dow climbed. The Nasdaq slipped. Oil fell further as Trump signaled he is comfortable letting Iran talks run longer. Stocks are digesting a lot at once after the best quarter in years.

A major tech company announced it is entering a business that immediately hurt two of its competitors. A trade deal that covers most of North American commerce just got a lot less certain. And one CEO went on television and said something pretty direct about Anthropic and OpenAI.

Cisco was once the MOST valuable company on Earth. Then it fell 80% - and investors waited 25 YEARS just to break even.

A Wall Street legend is out with a new warning: "It's about to happen again." He says many of today's overhyped AI darlings - stocks sitting in almost every 401(k) in America - could lose up to HALF their value or more.

He just went on camera with the names. 

Watch his talk here before it's too late.

Warsh appeared on a panel in Portugal with the heads of the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. He was asked repeatedly about July. He said nothing that committed him either way.

What he did say matters. On independence: "We've been an independent central bank for a very long time. We're going to be an independent central bank at this moment. You're going to see no changes on that." On inflation he said prices are still too high. But he also said inflationary risks have eased since June. Treasury yields fell after that line.

Then came the AI comment. Warsh said the AI investment boom could expand the productive capacity of the economy and have huge implications for monetary policy. That is not a hawkish signal. That is Warsh leaving a door open that June's dot plot seemed to close.

Hassett pushed back publicly the same morning. He told Fox Business that raising rates to fight inflation would be misguided. White House pressure is back, even after the Supreme Court ruled Monday to protect the Fed.

Task force leaders will be announced next week. That is the next real signal. What those leaders are asked to focus on tells you what Warsh is actually building.

Anything Warsh says publicly between now and July 28 changes the probability. His silence through the task force announcement means July stays a coin flip.

Meta Platforms (META) announced it is building a cloud business to sell its excess computing power to outside customers. The stock jumped sharply. CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 14%. Nebius Group (NBIS) fell 17%.

Here is what happened. Meta spent $145 billion on AI infrastructure this year. It built more than it needs. Now instead of letting it sit idle, it is selling access to that capacity. That puts Meta in direct competition with companies like CoreWeave, which exist entirely to rent computing power to AI companies.

SpaceX (SPCX) already did a version of this, renting its Memphis data center to Anthropic and striking a deal with Google. Now Meta is doing the same thing. When the biggest companies in the world start selling their spare capacity, the companies whose whole business model is selling capacity get hit hard.

A deal between a hyperscaler and a competing AI lab before Q3 would confirm this is now a standard playbook, not a one-off move.

Palantir (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp went on television and criticized the token-based pricing model that Anthropic and OpenAI use. He said enterprises are frustrated with paying per token and want to own their own AI tools and data. Palantir jumped sharply on the day.

Karp also announced an expanded partnership with Nvidia (NVDA) to build custom AI models for US government agencies. His argument is that enterprises want control, not dependency on someone else's model.

This matters because Karp is not just talking. Palantir is building the alternative he is describing. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are heading toward IPO filings with revenue models built on the token system Karp just publicly called broken.

A second major CEO making the same argument publicly before Q3 earnings means this critique is spreading beyond Palantir.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the US will not renew USMCA for its full term. Instead, the deal stays in place year to year with annual reviews. If no resolution is reached by 2036, the deal expires entirely.

USMCA governs over $1.6 trillion in annual trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico. The auto industry alone represents about 18% of that. Current rules require that 75% of a vehicle's value come from North America. The Trump administration reportedly wants to raise that to 82%, with half of that specifically from the US.

Annual reviews mean constant uncertainty for any company planning supply chains across the three countries. A border that looks stable this year may not look the same next year.

A formal proposal to raise local content requirements to 82% would force every automaker to start rebuilding their supply chain math immediately.

Luke Lango was ranked America's #1 stock picker in 2020. He was mentored by two hedge fund billionaires from the Soros network and trained at Caltech. His readers have had the chance to see gains as high as AMD +8,500%... Nvidia +5,000%... Tesla +3,500%... Palantir +1,000%... and Apple +890%. Now he's releasing his next big pick.

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Warsh's task force leader announcement next week is the clearest signal before July 28. Meta moving from announcement to a signed hyperscaler-to-AI-lab compute deal confirms the excess capacity model is becoming standard. A second major CEO publicly criticizing the Anthropic-OpenAI token model moves Karp's critique from individual opinion to enterprise consensus. A formal US proposal raising USMCA auto content requirements to 82% forces every North American automaker to start rebuilding their numbers.

Warsh kept July open while naming the AI capex boom as a factor with huge implications for monetary policy. Meta entered compute and sent CoreWeave down 14% and Nebius down 17%. Karp called the token model broken and PLTR jumped 9%. USMCA became an annual review covering $1.6 trillion in trade with an 82% content push. Each anchor has a test before Q3.

Warsh said almost nothing about July and moved markets anyway. Meta's compute announcement hit its competitors before the business even launched. Karp publicly called the Anthropic and OpenAI revenue model broken. And USMCA just became a year-to-year deal.

Warsh's task force appointments, the first hyperscaler-to-AI-lab compute deal, and a formal USMCA content proposal are the three signals that tell you whether July's rate decision is signaled or blind, whether the compute market is consolidating around hyperscalers, and whether North American supply chains face a documented restructuring requirement.